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EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT….

EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT…. High-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends * Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D. U.S. Government Accountability Office Contact: droitcourj@gao.gov Presented at Evaluation 2009

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EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT….

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  1. EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT…. High-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends* Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D. U.S. Government Accountability Office Contact: droitcourj@gao.gov Presented at Evaluation 2009 Panel: Prospective Evaluation and Technology: New Developments and 21st Century Challenges November 13, 2009 *Based in part on GAO, HIGHWAY SAFETY: Foresight Issues Challenge DOT’s Efforts to Assess and Respond to New Technology-Based Trends, October 2008 (GAO-09-56). The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

  2. TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS:Key Phases -- Innovation Cycle

  3. TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS CAN IMPACT AGENCY GOALS

  4. PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES, LIKE CELL PHONES

  5. SIDE EFFECT: IMPACTS DOT’s/ NHTSA’S HIGHWAY SAFETY GOAL

  6. CLOCKSPEED:Can an agency keep pace with a fast-paced technology-based trend?(organizational clockspeed = rate at which an organization introduces new products, adopts new production processes, or reorganizes itself; Sources: Charles H. Fine, 1998; David W. Rejeski, 2003)

  7. STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS:e.g., visual component (experts don’t see tech. slowing down) Source: Prof. Babak A. Parviz, University of Washington

  8. COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER ADOPTION:fast-evolving trend over the past decade • dates of wide-availability • PDAs late 1990s • hands-free phones (no wire to ear) ~ 2003 • GPS and cameras on phones ~ 2004 • newest cell phones • have streaming TV, video-calling • have internet access • are replaced every 17 months • text messages numbered • 14 million/mo. 2000 • 18+billion/mo. 2006 • 120+ billion/mo. 2009*

  9. COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, SIDE EFFECTS:road-phoning devices

  10. GAO EVALUATION (2008) When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

  11. 1. DECIDING/RESPONDING:Evidence-Governance Options Framework

  12. NHTSA: DECIDING/RESPONDINGelectronic driver distractions--2008

  13. 2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE:Criteria for selecting methods to assess impact of high-clockspeed trend • Technically adequate • Timely • Capable of being repeated over time (relatively frequently, i.e., non-costly) …..as we found for NHTSA and new distractins, it can be difficult to meet all three

  14. 3. COMMUNICATING Two key attributes • Comprehensiveness re: relevant trends • Timeliness ….. as of 2008 DOT had not included new driver distractions in key reports to the Hill

  15. GAO’S RECOMMENDATIONS re: high-clockspeed trends affecting safety 1. deciding/responding anticipatory risk management…* or adaptive strategies, weigh old vs new, etc. 2. developing evidence potentially, use newest technology 3. communicating more complete, timely communications

  16. POSTSCRIPT: FALL 2009 deciding/responding DOT took some key steps….re: banning developing evidence NHTSA developing new research plan communicating DOT’s driver distraction summit, included Hill and other stakeholders

  17. THANK YOU

  18. 2ndTECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND:in-vehicle crash-avoidance tech’s

  19. DOT/NHTSA: IN-VEHICLE CRASH-AVOIDANCE TECHNOLOGIES deciding/responding expand NCAP* program (include crash-avoidance info’) developing evidence encountered difficulties getting highest level evidence that is timely communicating considerable communication *NCAP = New Car Assessment Program (earlier sole focus: crash-worthiness)

  20. FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKWhen faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

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