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56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians (Paris, 10-12 June 2008)

Demographic Impact of Migration Seminar on Measuring Population Movement and Integration in a Globalized World. Marcel Heiniger, Swiss Federal Statistical Office. 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians (Paris, 10-12 June 2008). Three Invited Papers.

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56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians (Paris, 10-12 June 2008)

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  1. Demographic Impact of MigrationSeminar on Measuring Population Movement and Integration in a Globalized World Marcel Heiniger, Swiss Federal Statistical Office 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians (Paris, 10-12 June 2008)

  2. Three Invited Papers • 1. “Migrations Statistics: Conceptualization and Measurement in the European Union” by Stephan Marik-Lebeck (Austria) • 2. “The Demographic Perspective of an Emigration Country” by CSO Poland • 3. “Quarterly Measurement of the Effect of Foreign Migrations on the Population of Spain: The Nowcast Population Estimates” by Ignacio Duque (Spain)

  3. The Main Issue • Migration affects societies in different ways: • demographic impact • economic impact • social impact • How does migration affect the size, change, structure, distribution of the population? What are the demographic consequences?

  4. Diversity of International Migration • Different types of migration • long-term / short-term • permanent / temporary / seasonal • regular / irregular • New forms of migration • return migration • circular migration • transit migration

  5. Migration Data – Critical Issues • Definition of international migrant/migration: • reference population, ‘country of origin‘ designation, minimum time limit [duration threshold] • Data sources (coverage, accuracy, timeliness) • A universal standardized and harmonized terminology used in the collection of international migration statistics is far from a reality.

  6. The Demographic Impact of Migration in Host Countries • From 1990 to 2000, international migration accounted for 56% of the population growth in the developed world. • From 1990 to 2000, immigration accounted for 89% of population growth in Europe. • From 1995 to 2000, Europe’s population would have declined by 4.4 million without immigration. • (Source: GCIM, 2005)

  7. Classification of Countries in International Migration Statistics • immigration / host / receiving countries • emigration / sending countries • A given country may be at the same time a country of immigration and of emigration.

  8. Demographic Impact - The Key Points (1) • direct / primary effects • = inflow and outflow of persons • indirect / secondary effects • due to the specific age and sex structure of most migrants

  9. Demographic Impact - The Key Points (2) • direct impact of migration: • population size • population growth or decline • population structure (age, sex) population ageing and the concept of ‚replacement migration‘

  10. Demographic Impact - The Key Points (3) • indirect impact of migration: • fertility (number of births) • mortality (infant/child mortality, specific health risks) • marriage patterns (e.g. mixed marriages) • family and household structure migrants (1st generation) vs. descendants of migrants (2nd/3rd generation)

  11. Questions to the Authors (1) • Austria: • Can national (policy) needs and the desire for internationally harmonized migration statistics ever be reconciled? • What is the demographic impact of using a shorter duration threshold in the definition of international migration? • Should there be universal concepts when assessing the demographic impact of migration on national populations?

  12. Questions to the Authors (2) • Poland: • How temporary is temporary emigration? Does it affect the population structure differently than permanent emigration? • Have the emigration figures already lead to concrete policy developments? • How can we get information on people who are not present in the country anymore?

  13. Questions to the Authors (3) • Spain: • Why do you think that the demographic impact of migration is a strange subject for discussion? • Will the distinction between nationals and non-nationals become irrelevant in the future? • Is the steep increase in the number of immigrants also a result of the new method to produce population estimates?

  14. Questions for General Discussion • Do we need to know about the indirect demographic impacts of migration? Do we have to be able to distinguish various generations of people with an immigrant background? • Do we need internationally harmonized concepts for quantifying the demographic impact of international migration? • Are demographic data on migrants policy-relevant in your specific national context? • Is the assessment of the demographic impact of migration of national interest only? Are the demographic aspects less relevant than the economic and social effects of migration?

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