1 / 4

Motivation Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO 2 eq

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation". Motivation Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO 2 eq Strongly rising bioenergy demand Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation

selene
Download Presentation

Motivation Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO 2 eq

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1)"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Motivation • Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO2eq • Strongly rising bioenergy demand • Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation • Reduction of methane/nitrous oxide emissions from ag. production Science integration • Linking Integrated Assessment models, global agricultural models and farm household models • Top-down: Spatially-explicit land use change scenarios; global boundary conditions for household studies • Bottom-up: Improvement of global models (e.g. role of mixed systems) • Global models: IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, (PBL/IMAGE, …) • Regional cases: Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, India Global modelling: Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis (Ensembles) • Assumptions about food/energy demand, land availability, land use change, technological change

  2. Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (2)"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Household modelling • Introduce bioenergy production and other mitigation options to household models • Production decisions under new prices/cost structures • Food security beyond calories; livelihoods • Local energy security/availability (traditional biomass) Challenges • Linking annual to decadal time scales Outcome • Chances and risks of climate mitigation on food security • Livelihood impacts at household level • Options for improving governance / institutions (e.g. land tenure, compensation payments) • Accounting of carbon, water use, emissions • Investment needs in agricultural R&D

  3. Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (3)"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" CCAFS/ESSP science value • CCAFS: link to IAM, energy sector scenarios, land use change, emission accounting • ESSP: "grounding" of global models with local processes/constraints • Linking physiology, technology, economics, governance Development value • Chances for agriculture/food security: new markets, income, diversification, synergies between adaptation and mitigation • Risks for agriculture/food security: competition for land, water, livestock feed Structural value for Ag. science in CCAFS • Models as structuring elements for distributed studies • Linking and using distributed data CC science value • More realistic assessment of mitigation options • Synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation

  4. Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (4)"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Link to stakeholders • Policy-making: energy/climate policy, ag. policy, spatial planning • Strategic research planning/investment • Ag. Extension Partners: • CCAFS: IFPRI, ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR, others? • ESSP: PIK, IIASA, PBL, others? Funding sources: • GIZ/BEAF call, March 2012 • EU FP7? • Foundations?

More Related