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Brazil and the Global Turmoil

Brazil and the Global Turmoil. Beny Parnes Washington DC October 2008. A New Theme: Financial Stability. Brazilian Banks: Risk-Based Capital Adequacy. 20. 15.8%. 16. regulatory minimum (11%). 12. %. 8. 4. 0. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. Jun 2008.

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Brazil and the Global Turmoil

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  1. Brazil and the Global Turmoil Beny Parnes Washington DC October 2008

  2. A New Theme: Financial Stability

  3. Brazilian Banks: Risk-Based Capital Adequacy 20 15.8% 16 regulatory minimum (11%) 12 % 8 4 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun 2008

  4. Credit/GDP: Brazil vs. Selected Countries 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 % GDP 60 40 37 20 0 US UK Chile Brazil Korea Mexico Sweden Thailland Argentina Phillipines Malaysiasia

  5. Old Challenges: Fiscal and External Vulnerabilities

  6. Net Public Debt/GDP 58 54 50 % GDP 46 42 Aug/08 40.5% 38 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08

  7. FX Denominated Public Debt/Net Public Debt Sep/02 55.5 60 30 % 0 Aug/08 -28.1 -30 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08

  8. FX Denominated Public Debt/GDP Sep/02 31.1 36 24 % GDP 12 0 Aug/08 -11.4 -12 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08

  9. Net acquisitions of Int. Reserves in Fx Market 78.6 80 70 60 50 40 US$ billion 30 18.1 20 10 -9.1 0 -10 Jan-Aug 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

  10. International Reserves 220 Sep/08 206.5 165 US$ billion 110 Apr/03 15.9 55 0 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08

  11. 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 % GDP -3 -4 -5 -6 2008 forecast -7 -8 2006 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Current Account/GDP

  12. Real Effective Exchange Rate Basket of currencies 180 160 140 120 Jun 94=100 100 80 60 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

  13. GDP & Inflation

  14. GDP change in 4 quarters over 4 quarters 6.0% 6 5 4 3 % 2 1 0 -1 1Q 99 1Q 00 1Q 01 1Q 02 1Q 03 1Q 04 1Q 05 1Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 08

  15. Household Consumption year-over-year 10 8.6 8 6.7 6.6 6 4 % 2 0 -2 -4 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 2Q 03 04 05 06 07 08

  16. Industrial Capacity Utilization 86 85 84 83 % 82 81 80 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08

  17. Consumer Inflation Accumulated in 12 months 18 15 12 Sep/08: 6.25% % 9 6 3 0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 03 04 05 06 07 08

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