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Allocation of biomass (WP5) energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions

Allocation of biomass (WP5) energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions. Joost van Stralen (ECN) Biomass Futures workshop, November 26 th , Brussels. Objective RESolve Biomass allocation in RESolve Scenario assumptions Conclusions. Contents . Objective.

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Allocation of biomass (WP5) energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions

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  1. Allocation of biomass (WP5)energymodeling approach and scenario assumptions Joost van Stralen (ECN) BiomassFutures workshop, November 26th, Brussels

  2. Objective RESolve Biomassallocation in RESolve Scenario assumptions Conclusions Contents

  3. Objective “Assess the role of bioenergy in different sectors” • Develop a model thatallowsforbiomassallocation over different sectors • Scenario analysis • Interactionwith PRIMES

  4. NREAP figures* * 21 EU countries

  5. Production-consumptionchains Land availability (supply) Production of biomass Conversionintobio(-energy) commodities Conversionintobio(-energy) products Market (demand) Functions of the products

  6. RESolve: overview E-prices: COMPETES RESolve Biofuels: RESolve-T RES-E: RESolve-E Biomass allocation RES-H/C: RESolve-H/C

  7. RESolve-E* • Decoupling of greymarket • Barriers and distortions • Realisablepotentials *Formerlyknown as ADMIRE-REBUS

  8. Biomass – technologycombinations Per resource, start with lowest cost technology

  9. RESolve-H

  10. RESolve-T* Find the minimal costallocationsalong the biofuelsupplychain in a group of countries, givenprojections of demand (biofuel target), potentials and technologicalprogress EU countries *Formerlyknown as BioTrans

  11. How does itwork? Import & export

  12. What kind of categories are supplied?

  13. Fuels Biodiesel, Bio-FT-diesel, Bio-DME, Bio-SNG Bioethanol, Lignocellulosic ethanol, Biogas Emissions CO2, CH4, N2O as CO2-equivalents Technologies Biofuelproducingtechnologies, incl. torrefaction&oilextraction Countriesand Regions Europe: West, Central/East; Ukraine, Rest of World What kind of categories are supplied ?

  14. Costsupplycurvesforcrops Nuts2 level Example: Austria in 2010

  15. E, H and T treatedunbiased Avoid double counting Import and export of biomass Emissions over the chain How to allocatebiomass over the different sectors? • New demandsegments in RESolve-T: • Bio-electricity • Bio-heat • Extension of RESolve-T

  16. Biomassallocation in RESolve(-T) Find the minimal costallocationsalong the bio-energysupplychain in a group of countries, givenprojections of demands(biofueltarget, demandforbio-electricity and -heat), potentials and technologicalprogress

  17. RESolve-E RESolve-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-T -pfeedstock -biomass pot. RES-E -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-E -pfeedstock -biomass pot. RES-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support RESolve-H RES-E/H demand converged? NO YES -Final RES-mix -avoided emissions -other indicators Connection of models - Flowchart

  18. How to deal withdemand > supply? FINE? NOT FINE? General demandtoolarge → decreasefrom sector Withlowestdemand ‘pull’ Comparisonwith RES-E and -H alternatives

  19. Current status RESolve-E RESolve-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-T -pfeedstock -biomass pot. RES-E -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-E -pfeedstock -biomass pot. RES-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support RESolve-H RES-E/H demand converged? NO YES -Final RES-mix -avoided emissions -other indicators Current status

  20. Fast development non-biomass RES ‘NREAP’ Low biomass Optimistic availability of biomass Pessimistic availability of biomass Medium biomass Largebiomass Slow development non-biomass RES Scenarios

  21. CASES Zoom in at NREAP scenario in more detail CASE 1:Achieving a maximum biofuelcontribution CASE 2: More electrification in the transport sector CASE 3:Additional RES-H support CASE 4: Focus onminimizing GHG emissions

  22. A methodologyforbiomassallocation has been developed (D5.1) Implementation is goingon → couplingRESolve-X models. RESolve-Tusedforallocation of biomass Draftscenarios have been developed Interactionwith PRIMES needs to beworkedon Conclusions

  23. Questions?

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