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The WCRP in support of the IPCC

The WCRP in support of the IPCC. David Carson Director WCRP SBSTA17, New Delhi, India 28 October 2002. Research priorities. Detecting, attributing and projecting the magnitude and extent of human induced climate change, regional variations and related sea-level rise

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The WCRP in support of the IPCC

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  1. The WCRP in support of the IPCC David Carson Director WCRP SBSTA17, New Delhi, India 28 October 2002

  2. Research priorities • Detecting, attributing and projecting the magnitude and extent of human induced climate change, regional variations and related sea-level rise • input to the IPCC, UNFCCC and other Conventions

  3. CLIVAR 1995  SPARC 1992 WGNE WGCM WOCE 1990-2002 TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  ACSYS/CLIC 1994–2003/2000

  4. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. http://www.clivar.org

  5. Change of Atlantic circulation A FULL SHUT-DOWN CANNOT BE EXCLUDED BEYOND 2100 Stocker et al, IPCC, 2001

  6. GEWEX PHASE IIOverall guiding goals (JSC-XXII, March 2001) • production of consistent descriptions of Earth’s energy budget and water cycle and their variability and trends, and data sets for validation of models • enhancing understanding of how energy and water cycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks • developing improved parametrizations encapsulating these processes and feedbacks for atmospheric circulation models

  7. Why a CEOP ? Timing of new satellites and GEWEX CSEs provides opportunity for significant benefit from a more coordinated observation period. North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA) (MDB)

  8. Cloud-climate forcing and feedback • representation of cloud-climate forcing and feedback in models - one of the most uncertain areas in climate simulations and projections of climate change • key to progress - combination of modelling and observations to establish a (predictive) understanding of relationship between clouds and the circulation, and of many other feedbacks/ relationships involved

  9. CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION between the present day and the middle of the 21st century Global climate model Regional climate model

  10. Predictability Assessment of the Climate SystemFoci • The determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of climate variations • The determination of the extent of useful skill in predicting monthly to decadal variations in climate • The determination of the extent to which we can design global models to correctly reproduce the pdfs of sub-decadal variability in climate

  11. Predictability Assessment of the Climate SystemFoci • The determination of the temporal and spatial changes in these pdfs in a changing climate [regional manifestations of climate change] • The development of data management and analysis systems and of predictive models, and contribution to the development of observational data systems

  12. IPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for action • Modelling and process studies: - Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors leading to changes in radiative forcing - Understand and characterise the important unresolved processes and feedbacks, both physical and biogeochemical, in the climate system

  13. IPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for action • Modelling and process studies (ctd.): - Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models - Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate variability, regional climate changes and extreme events - Link more effectively models of the physical climate and the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of human activities

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