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Review of the Gothenburg Protocol

Review of the Gothenburg Protocol. Link to potential PM control under CLRTAP: Specifies control options for PM precursors Could be extented to NEC for primary PM However: Many sources of primary PM are controlled by Protocol on Heavy Metals

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Review of the Gothenburg Protocol

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  1. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol • Link to potential PM control under CLRTAP: • Specifies control options for PM precursors • Could be extented to NEC for primary PM • However: Many sources of primary PM are controlled by Protocol on Heavy Metals • Legal requirement for review to start no later than one year after entry into force

  2. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Timetable • WGSR through TF IAM to present a review report (50 to 75 pages) to CLRTAP EB in December 2007 • TF IAM to present first draft to WGSR in April 2007 • First drafting meeting with other Centres, TF and EG November 15th 2006, Laxenburg

  3. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Objectives of the Review Report • Are the emissions ceilings and the other obligations adequate for achieving the objectives of the Protocol? • What progress has been made towards achieving the objectives? • Assessment of the need to include PM in a future instrument

  4. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Draft outline of the Review Report • Concentration and deposition levels • Effects on human health, natural ecosystems, materials and crops • National emission ceilings • Emission limit values • The role of hemispheric transport • Relation to climate change issues • Particulate matter (contribution tbd at this meeting) • North America • Progress towards achieving the objectives

  5. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Coordination with work on PM • Common baseline and MFTR-scenarios to be used • IIASA will differentiate contribution from primary and secondary PM 2.5 to total concentration • data available for EU by end of 2006, for non-EU within EMEP area by spring 2007 • abatement measures and costs will be available from the RAINS database • no optimisation runs to take place in the course of the review

  6. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Consequences on Report of PM EG • Concentrations in 2020 according to baseline • Quantitative information for full EMEP area will be available only in Spring 2007 • Preliminary information on contribution from primary and secondary PM available from EMEP and CAFE reports (to be added after para 26)

  7. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Consequences on Report of PM EG • Primary PM • Abatement potential related to emissions as analysed in IIASA study (cmp. para 27 to 40) • Costs in RAINS database to be summarised by IIASA (extend para 42) • Preliminary information on abatement potential related to concentrations available from EMEP model runs and CAFE(to be added after para 40) • Quantification for full EMEP area only in Spring 2007

  8. Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: Consequences on Report of PM EG • Secondary PM • Quantification of abatement potential for full EMEP area only in spring 2007 (extend para 41: potential of tighter NECs and ELV for precursors beyond Gothenburg to reduce secondary PM) • costs cannot be directely compared to primary emissions as benefits exists for other effects, e.g. eutrophication (how to incorporate?)

  9. Foreseen discussion of the draft Report at this meeting • No discussion of para 1 to 20, i.e. • Mandate • Objectives • Characteristics of PM • Transboundary character of PM • Health impacts of PM • State of emission inventories

  10. Foreseen discussion of the draft Report at this meeting • Agree on contents of • Key sectors contributing (para 21 to 26) with a view to additional information to come from the Gothenburg review process and the timing of a final draft • Discuss how to deal with • abatement costs for precursor emissions (to be added to para 42) • Discuss what information to incorporate on North America

  11. Foreseen discussion of the draft Report at this meeting • Discuss • The potential for further abatement (para 27 to 41 and additional information to come from Gothenburg review) • Potential options how to address PM(para 44 to 60) • Conclusions (para 61 to 70 and potential additional conclusions) • Potential Annexes, e.g. more in-depth discussion of additional sectors, non-technical measures …

  12. Contribution of the PM EG to the Gothenburg Review Report • Evidence on • on health impacts of PM • transboundary character of PM • Current and future concentration of primary and secondary PM • Abatement potential of prim. and sec. PM • Uncertainty of emission data • Any revision of NECs and ELVs on PM precursors should consider health impacts from PM exposure • No prejudice how to control primary PM under CLRTAP (e.g. HM Protocol)

  13. PM Assessment Report by TFMM • Initiative of TFMM endorsed by EMEP SB • Aim of the Report • Describe the contribution made by long range transboundary transport to PM levels within the EMEP region • Contribute to the discussion on whether PM models sufficiently reflect reality

  14. PM Assessment Report - Outline • Part A. The EMEP-wide Assessement • Are there significant differences in the PM climate across Europe? • To what extent is PM a transboundary problem? • How well do we understand the major PM components and their origins? • How important are natural PM sources? • To what extent do sources outside of Europe contribute to European PM? • How important is regional PM for urban PM levels? • How well can we link sources to observed PM levels with atmospheric models? • How large are the uncertainties in PM measurements and model predictions? • What improvements are required in PM monitoring, modelling and basic scientific understanding for the assessment of health and climate impacts of PM? • Part B. National Assessments

  15. PM Assessment Report - Timetable • Workshop hosted by INERIS, ParisNovember 29th to December 1st 2006 • Compile a first draft of Part A • Review of national assessments • Review of first draft at TFMM, Spring 2007 • Final draft to be presented to EMEP SB in September 2007

  16. Cost-effective control of urban air pollution • Joint Workshop of TFMM and TF IAMNovember 16th and 17th, Laxenburg, AT • Objective • update on the most recent findings from health impact studies • explore the connections between urban air quality and regional scale pollution based on monitoring data and modelling exercises • review methodological approaches for IAM to balance local and Europe-wide emission control measures

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