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The Lake Pontchartrain Forecast System

Rick Luettich Jason G. Fleming Institute of Marine Sciences University of North Carolina. The Lake Pontchartrain Forecast System. The Team. University of North Carolina: Rick Luettich, Jason Fleming, Crystal Fulcher

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The Lake Pontchartrain Forecast System

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  1. Rick Luettich Jason G. Fleming Institute of Marine Sciences University of North Carolina The Lake Pontchartrain Forecast System

  2. The Team University of North Carolina: Rick Luettich, Jason Fleming, Crystal Fulcher Louisiana State University: Robert Twilley, Gabrielle Allen, Ed Seidel, Brett Estrade University of Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink US Army Corps of Engineers: Harley Winer

  3. Interim Gated Structures

  4. Mission Statement

  5. Mission Statement Provide real-time support for closure decisions for Orleans Parish outfall canals Predict stages in Lake Pontchartrain at the mouths of the outfall canals Predict wind speeds near the mouths of the canals USACE and LSU provide computing resources

  6. The Scope of Work Calculate storm surge and wind speed using ADCIRC 4 Day forecast completed in within 2 hours Accurate wind conditions and storm surge from a tropical cyclone Ensemble of alternate cyclones that reflect a reasonable range of possible conditions

  7. LPFS in a Nutshell Rely on text advisories from NOAA NHC Automated software system to Download advisories Configure ADCIRC runs Compute wind fields on the fly Assemble output from ADCIRC and plot results at locations of interest Email graphs to decision makers and copy to redundant external websites

  8. Phase I Create mesh with 100k nodes Implement dynamic Holland wind model Verify that we get within 10% of IPET for Katrina Define ensemble of 5 members Plot wind speed and water level at station locations

  9. The Grid

  10. Holland Wind Model Analytical Description Input data: Central pressure deficit Maximum wind speed Radius to maximum winds

  11. Ensemble Members 1. NHC Consensus storm, 5 day forecast 2. Storm with 20% higher wind speed 3. Storm with 20% slower forward speed 4. Storm that veers along right of cone of uncertainty 5. Storm that veers along left of cone of uncertainty

  12. Veer Right and Veer Left

  13. Examples of Early Warning Katrina: veer left storm Rita: veer right storm Ernesto: threat yet or not?

  14. Katrina

  15. Early Warning – Veer Left

  16. Early Warning – Veer Left

  17. Early Warning – Veer Left

  18. Rita

  19. Early Warning – Veer Right

  20. Early Warning – Veer Right

  21. Rita Early Warning

  22. Ernesto

  23. Ernesto – Nearest Forecast

  24. Ernesto – Nearest Forecast

  25. Ernesto – Nearest Forecast

  26. Phase II Modify Phase I to use hotstarting Completed during hurricane season 2006 Initiate daily runs forced by tides Tides are relatively small Strategy change to increase speed Add any other meteorological products Timeliness is main issue Ongoing search for speed and accuracy

  27. Coldstart system

  28. Hotstart System

  29. Lessons Learned Performance Multi-machine development at LSU Added hotstart capability Generalized system for portability Turnaround times LSU: 1—7 hours initially USACE: 25-30 minutes with real time queue

  30. Lessons Learned Resources Priority access not guaranteed except at USACE Optimization needed for LSU hardware LSU and USACE machines operate redundantly Communications Mirrored results at several redundant websites, including LSU and UNC Enhanced notification emails to include attachments containing graphs of results

  31. Hurricane Season 2007 System oversight Systematically assess wave setup Compute proportionate effect in historical storms Use synthetic pack of storms to calculate a multiplier or; Integrate STWAVE into LPFS Modify storm ensemble

  32. Hurricane Season 2007 Hotstart with tides Hotstart with background meteorology Inclusion of land use characteristics Enhanced user interface Enhanced output Maximum Envelope Of Water (MEOW) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) across ensemble Maximum Envelope of Wind

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