Erling Vårdal University of Bergen and

1. The Norwegian Research Council Project: Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Norwegian agriculture Erling Vårdal University of Bergen and Institute for Research in Economics and Business Administration (SNF)

2. Our project is part of the Research- council-program: Climate change and impacts in Norway (Norklima) Instruments for reducing emissions New technological solutions alone are not sufficient for realizing a low emissions society. Extensive restructuring within society that changes the economic and institutional framework will be essential. New knowledge about effective measures, use of instruments and climate policy is crucial in order to provide a better basis for decision-making related to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Climate Cure 2020 • Climate and Pollution Agency has been tasked with assessing possible measures to be able to reduce Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions by 15 to 17 million tonnes by 2020 • It has been taken as a basis that Norway will be credited with three million tonnes of carbon uptake in forests. The target therefore is to reduce emissions by 12 - 14 million tonnes by 2020. • Within 2020: Cut the global climate gas by 30 % compared to the 1990 level. (2/3 taken domestically).

4. Agriculture: GHG emissions – Status • 8 per cent of total Norwegian emissions • This totals 5,433 million tonn CO2 • Key drivers • Ruminants • High intensity in the use of fertilizer • Intensive soil tilling

5. Ministry of Agriculture and Food has prepared a White Paper based on a report from a group of government agencies Climate Cure 2020 • The target is to reduce emissions in agriculture by 1.1 million ton. In addition comes biogas from manure. • Examples of measures proposed • use of manure to produce bio-gas • improved fertilizing of agricultural land • halting new cultivation of marshland • production of bio-coal and storing bio-coal in agricultural land

6. Main characteristics of Norwegian agriculture: • Agriculture takes 2 % of the workforce • Self sufficiency in main agricultural products • Unproductive • Support per man year, appr. 40,000 $ • 40 % is border support (tariffs 100-400 %) • 60 % is budget support • PSE: 65 % (2nd rank on the OECD list 2006)

7. Our project: Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Norwegian agriculture • Primary objective: • Assess cost efficient ways to reduce GHG emissions from Norwegian agriculture while ensuring important objectives attached to agricultural activity, like food security, rural viability and land amenity values • Secondary objectives: • Status of knowledge with respect to relation between agricultural activity and GHG emissions • Adapt and attach GHG coefficients and functions to activities and land use in Jordmod • Extend the models spectrum of land use technologies with emphasize on land use and practices that contribute to lower GHG emissions or sequester carbon

8. Partcipants in the project • SNF (Gaasland,Vårdal, Godal in addition comes Blandford) • BIOFORSK (Grønlund) • CICERO (Glomsrød)

9. Project • WP.1: GHG emissions from land use and animal husbandry • Bioforsk updates emission coefficients based on existing information • WP.2: Alternative land use technologies • Bioforsk: Conventional food producing technologies should be complemented with land use alternatives that contribute to lower carbon emissions or act as carbon sinks. • WP.3: Cost efficient ways to reduce GHG emissions based on model analyses • SNF: Jordmod is the basic tool • WP.4: Ideal versus practical policy instruments

10. WP. 2 Alternative land use technologies (Responsible: Bioforsk) • Reduced tillage systems. • Permanent vegetation cover that are decoupled from food production (e.g., flowery meadows and biofuel crops). • Intensity and methods in fertilization. • Feedstock modification in animal husbandry

11. Partial equilibrium model of Norwegian agriculture: JORDMOD (1) • Production takes place on “model farms” with fixed input and output coefficients. The model farms span 11 representative farm types. • Distributed over 32 production regions (varying yields and limited supply of different grades of land).

12. JORMOD (2): Economies of scale and substitution possibilities • Production can take place on small farms or larger more productive farms. Consequently, there is an element of economies of scale in the model. • For example, beef can be produced using different technologies (model farms), both extensive and intensive production. I.e. there is substitution possibilities.

13. JORDMOD (3): GHG coefficients • Adapted as a tool for analyzing climatic and environmental aspects related to food production • Functions and coefficients for GHG emission have been attached to activities and production factors (based on the IPCC methodology, adapted to Norwegian conditions and practices) • GHG policy instruments have been included

14. While Climate Cure 2020 discusses effects for single measures, Jordmod will make it possible to study interconnections between measures and objectives in the production system as a whole.