How To See Africa Like You Have Never Seen It Before Chris Maroleng: Africa Editor eNCA

1. How To See Africa Like You Have Never Seen It BeforeChris Maroleng: Africa Editor eNCA • Hohow to s

2. How do we currently see Africa? • Media organisations based in the global north in the past promised a new era of enhanced coverage of African news and current affairs. • In most instances this has simply boiled down to an increase in the stereotypically negative reporting of Africa that the world is accustomed to. • War, famine and poverty are the focus. The imagery is all too familiar:

6. An unprecedented era of peace …

7. Growth Outlook Africa´s growth accelerates in the medium term Africa: Growth expected to increase from 3.4% in 2011 to 4.5%in 2012 and to 4.8% in 2013. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is expected to increase from 5.1% in 2011 to 5.3% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. Excluding South Africa: Rest of Sub-Sahara Africa grew at 5.9% in 2011 and is expected to grow at 6.3% in both 2012 and 2013.

9. Growth Outlook (continued) North Africa returns to growth Growth fell to 0.5%in 2011 owing to political changes in the region (Example: Libya’s oil production fell by more than 75%). Projected rebound to moderate growth as economies return to more normal conditions. Growth expected at 3.1%in 2012 and at 4.0% in 2013. Continued recession in Europe is a major threat to recovery in North Africa in the medium term.

10. Arab Dawn

11. Growth by Regions Regional growth prospects (%)

12. 10 Fast-growing economies in2012/13 Libya 14.8% Niger 8.6% Côte d’Ivoire 7.1% Ethiopia 7.3% Liberia8% Ghana 8% Rwanda 7.3% 10 Fast-growing economies in2012/13 Angola7.7% Zambia 7.1% Mozambique 7.7%

13. 10 Slow -growing economies in 2012/13 Tunisia 3.1% Algeria 3.7% Egypt 1.8% Sudan 2.4% Gabon 3.9% 10 Slow -growing economies in 2012/13 Comoros 3.3% Madagascar 3.5% Swaziland 0.8% Mauritius 4.1% South Africa 3.2%

14. Drivers of Growth Internal External Commodity prices, export volumes Domestic consumer demand Macroeconomic policies and management Prices of agricultural export Growth sectors: Mining, agriculture, services, construction and manufacturing External financial flows (ODA, FDI, Remittances)

15. Drivers of Growth: Commodity Prices

16. Export Prices of Agricultural Products

17. Financial Flows to African Countries

18. Inflation is on the rise

19. World Cereal Prices

20. How the debt crisis in Europe affects Africa´s prospects Lower earnings from exports of goods (lower volumes, lower terms of trade) Lower financial inflows (ODA, FDI Remittances) Lower earnings from tourism Contagion effects on Africa

21. Dealing with persistent developmental challenges Reducing infrastructure deficit Improving regional integration Improving Human Development Improving Economic and Political Governance Promoting private sector / Diversification / SME development Mobilizing domestic resources / tax systems/ capital markets development Reducing youth unemployment Responding to climate change

22. Youth Employment

23. Human Security

24. Many youth in work are poor

25. Mismatches also exist between youth expectations and what’s on offer  Need for better information

26. Conclusion • Young people in Africa suffer from short term labour market challenges. Especially following the crisis. • Adjustments pose a problem too. As Africa embarks on modern technologies, many young people lack the right skills. • But the biggest challenge is that there is simply not enough economic activity. Africa needs more job creation.

27. Democratization and Growth • Steady growth in democratization that has now leveled off. Will it resume? • Poor correlation between democratization and economic growth (1%) • Democracy recognized and pursued as an independent and own good - African post-independent leadership has been found wanting… • What will role of China be in Africa?

28. Ibrahim African governance index • Assesses national governance in 48 countries against 57 criteria – • Improvements in 31 countries • Mauritius best governed • Liberia largest improvements • Somalia last, then DRC • As governance improves so does impact and effectiveness of ODA…

29. Corruption and development • DRC (Zaire) in 1961: desperately poor with per capita annual income of $67. Mobuto coup in 1965 ruled until 1997. Estimated to have stolen $5 bn (4-5 times national income in 1961) • Indonesia in 1961: desperately poor with per capita annual income of $49. Suharto coup in 1966 ruled until 1998. Estimated to have stolen at least $15 bn (4-5 times national income in 1961) By 1997 Indonesia’s per capita income was three times higher than in 1965. In DRC it was three times lower.

30. To Conclude • A more complex world with dispersed power – multipolarity inherently more unstable • The future of China? • Structural trends in Africa positive – but bad news sells! • Economic growth • Elections (as an example), governance • Improved impact of development assistance • Etc • Of course many problems…

31. Africa will develop When Africans really believe it can ... And When we get away from our belief in African exceptionalism …

32. How to see Africa differently regularly