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June 11 th seminar and workshop wrap up

June 11 th seminar and workshop wrap up. The story beyond the June 2011 . James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 29 th , 2012 summation. Lunchtime seminar. Key and most robust results. Content.

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June 11 th seminar and workshop wrap up

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  1. June 11th seminar and workshop wrap up The story beyond the June 2011 .. James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 29th, 2012 summation

  2. Lunchtime seminar Key and most robust results

  3. Content • Official population estimates and loccal population trends – Kim Dunstan, senior demographer, Stats NZ (attached) • UDS Perspective : Post Earthquakes – residential growth and distribution scenarios, Simon Markham, Waimakariri District Council (attached) • Recent trends in a long term perspective – statistics on demographic change in Greater Christchurch, James Newell, Director, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates) (some key results summarised here)

  4. James Newell statistical material • Recaped some points from 26 April seminar • Discussed long term population growth pattern of Greater Christchurch • Discussed population estimates for the period since June 2011 official release • Illustrated the use of administrative statistics to look at change in school age population post June 2011 – where are we now?

  5. Long term trends in population of Greater Christchurch? Some statistics

  6. Annual % change in population of Greater Christchurch – 1981 – 2011..

  7. Annual % change in population of Local Authorities of Greater Christchurch – 1981 – 2011..

  8. Some points for Greater Christchurch • is the second largest urban centre in NZ • The major urban hub of the South Island • Population increased at double the rate of NZ outside of Gtr Christchurch and Auckland 1986 to 2010 • at 80% of Auckland’s growth rate 2006-2010

  9. Changes in rate of population growth

  10. What effect has the EQ had on migration? … based on MERA population accounting model integrating Statistics official statistics and estimates ..

  11. MERA subnational population accounting model – for identifying assumptions – and analysing evidence against estimates Red components are derived by combining others Blue components are based on MERA custom series

  12. MERA Modelled versus SNZ Actual Net Migration assumptions 2010-2011

  13. Long Term Components of Population Change for Greater Christchurch

  14. Long Term Components of Net Migration Flows for Greater Christchurch

  15. Components of the change in population for the 2010/2011 June Year

  16. Estimated migration and changes in migration 2010/2011

  17. Greater Christchurch net migration for the June 2011 year by age for selected ethnicities estimated from changes in school enrolments

  18. Estimated net change in Household Types in Christchurch City inferred from Statistics NZ population estimates

  19. How is the recovery developing so far? Some useful indicators … Value of Building permits Estimated “effects” on “long term” international migration School rolls

  20. Estimated month by month reduction of Christchurch City population from EQ effects on international migration flows by direction of flow

  21. Estimated EQ effects of international long term migration in terms of a decrease from the “expected” usually resident population by year – Greater Christchurch

  22. Value of New Building Consents – Greater Christchurch – 12 Mths YTD

  23. Greater Christchurch - July School Rolls by Age

  24. Afternoon workshop Key and most robust results

  25. Estimated changes in school age children 2010 to 2012 by geographic sector of residence

  26. Est. change in the number of school age children at year levels 7 to 11

  27. Est. change in the number of school age children at year levels 7 to 11

  28. Looking ahead • As at June 11th – too early to tell • some indicators were pointing to recovery towards population growth again …? • But results presented at the 11th June and April 26th seminars were very limited, crude, indicative • Two months of hard work since June 11th sessions and a more complete and coherent picture is emerging of the pathway of population recovery is following post June 2011.. • To be updated on the 18thSeptember - indicators of the stage and actual process of population recovery post EQ and stories emerging from the demographic statistics

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