reliability of hydraulic structures under climate change

1. reliability of hydraulic structures under climate change Kamran Emami KuritKara Engineers Tehran, Iran

3. A summary of UNICEF report on THE STATE OF THE WORLD’S CHILDREN 2005 Many technical jumps are desperately needed ………… Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

4. World population from 1000 BC to 2300 BC Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

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6. Key findings of the Climate change report • 75-250 million people across Africa could face water shortages by 2020; • More heavy rain events are very likely and more areas are likely to be hit by drought; • Crop yields could decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia; • Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020; Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

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11. Adaptation Strategies • Predict the Climate Change trends • Non-Structural Approaches • Structural ductility • Public participation and Demand Management • Holistic, integrated and Creative Approaches

12. Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures (Emami, 1997) • Ensure a flexible and adaptive design in view of hydrosystems changes and the inherent uncertainties of water engineering.

13. Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures (Emami, 1997) • Establish the interdependence and synergy of structural and non-structural approaches in design.

14. Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures (Emami, 1997) • Adapt to the stochastic nature of river flow by integration of seasonal characteristics and river forecasting.

15. Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures (Emami, 1997) • Design hydraulic structures to adapt to extreme events far larger than design parameters and remain inherently safe (structural ductility)

16. Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures (Emami, 1997) • Enhance safety by 'designing' emergency and crisis management preceding the events and in real time for the structure and downstream population centers

17. FAST diagram of Holistic Design

19. Evolution of Non-Structural Approaches

20. LIVING WITH FLOODING • Flood risk cannot be eliminated • Residual risk can be managed

23. CHARACTERISTICS RESULTS OF THE DEVELOPMENTS • protection levels are generally far below the economic optimum • serious risk of loss of a large number of lives when an extreme event would occur • costs of only physical solutions are generally unaffordable

24. Protection levels are generally far below the economic optimum

25. WHY CONSIDER RESIDUAL RISK ? New Orleans Floods September 2005

26. WHY CONSIDER RESIDUAL RISK ? New Orleans Floods September 2005

27. Challenges of flood Engineers • Substantial Increase of Flood Risk • Uncertainty in all aspects

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29. Adaptive management Principles (2004) • Adaptability (Change Threat to Opportunity) • Flexible Decision Making (uncertainties) • Monitoring and vigilance • Learning while doing • Application of New knowledge and technologies Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

30. Adaptive management Principles (2004) • Avoiding costly irreversible mistakes • Updating the Objectives Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

31. Adaptive management Principles (2004) • Resilience • Harmony with Environment (step by step) • Passive and Active AM • Stakeholders Participation • Enhanced Real time reactions Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

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33. Bangladesh Cyclones 1970: 300000 نفر كارايي سامانه‌هاي پيش‌بيني و هشدار 1991: 140000 نفر 2007: 3500 نفر Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

34. Climate Forecasting by El Nino and La nina Normal (Dec. 93) El Nino (Dec. 97) La Nina (Dec. 98)

35. Risk Analysis Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

36. Flood management in Sistan, Iran

37. Successes of AM in Early Impoundment of Large dams in Iran

38. Successes of AM in Early Impoundment of Large dams in Iran

39. VE of Ajichay Spillway مهندسان مشاوركريت كارآ

40. Vanyar Dam Spillway Value Engineering Workshop - 2003

41. VE Proposals and Results • Enhanced Reservoir Operation Based on new rule curve, Seasonal forecasting and flood Warning • Reduced Cost (spillway length form 110 to 40m) • Enhanced Dam Safety • Drastic Attenuation of floods in the reservoir

42. Routing of Floods in AjiChay Reservoir

43. Aij Chay Flood Forecsting and Warning system

44. Tabriz Weather Radar

45. Conclusions • Based on experiences of application of AM in several larges projects it can be concluded that: • Adaptive flood risk Management is an effective, efficient and versatile tool. • AM emphasize of Non-structural approaches enhance adaptability, flexibility and sustainability.

46. Basic Requirements: • Efficient and reliable Water Managers and experts • Comprehensive and reliable Monitoring System • Preparedness and Plans for Emergencies • Regulations to ensure flexibility and adaptability • Resources and Training

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48. با توجه به عدم قطعيتها بايستي بجاي راهبرد اجتنابي از راهبرد تطبيقي و مقاومسازي استفاده نمود. در اين راستا مقاوم سازي سدهاي خاكي در مقابل سيلاب و استفاده از سدها و فرازبندي بتني ميتواند بيشترين ايمني را با حداقل هزينه تامين نمايد. Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers

49. Adaptability and FlexibilityDescription of a Fusegate Free-standing blocks, so called Fusegates, are installed side by side across the spillway sill

50. Description of a Fusegate In such a way that they form a watertight barrier.