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This research explores the limits and barriers to adapting to climate change effects on water supply reliability in southern England, focusing on the case study of the River Medway catchment in Kent. It examines potential adaptation options and identifies both generic and specific barriers to their implementation.
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Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability Nigel Arnell and Matt Charlton Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading School of Geography, University of Southampton Living with climate change: Are there limits to adaptation? London, February 7-8 2008
Research questions Are there limits to our ability to adapt to climate change in a particular place? …and what controls those limits and barriers? Water supply reliability in southern England
Outline • Water resources in southern England • A conceptual framework • The case study • Potential adaptation options • Barriers to implementation
Water resources in southern England Environment Agency (2001) Surplus or deficit in 2009-10? Increasing demands
…and add climate change Change in summer runoff, UKCIP02 medium-high scenario, 2020s
Adaptation options Eastern South East England Demand-side options Supply-side options
A conceptual framework Generic barriers apply to the adaptation challenge - is the need for adaptation recognised? - can the need for adaptation be defined? - can potential adaptation options be identified? - can adaptation options be evaluated? - can an option be selected? Specific barriers apply to individual options - are there physical limitations on the performance of the option? - are there financial constraints on the adoption of the option? - are there socio-political constraints on its adoption? - are there institutional factors within the organisation or its regulatory / market context that constrain the adoption of the option?
The case study catchment River Medway catchment, Kent Multiple “ownership” Complicated resource management
Multiple stakeholders Water supply companies Environment Agency Local councils SEERA CPRE Wildlife Trust Agriculture Water consumers
Change in the catchment Change by the 2020s
Potential adaptation options No one option is likely to meet targets
Barriers to implementation Generic barriers Is the need recognised? Yes… Can the need be specified? Strategically - yes… Can potential options be identified? Yes… Can options be evaluated? Not sure yet… Can an option be selected? Not sure yet…
Specific barriers to individual options Strong Medium Weak ? Preliminary assessment
Specific barriers to individual options Strong Medium Weak ? Preliminary assessment
Specific barriers • Major physical barriers for most supply-side options (environmental constraints, reliable yield etc) • Physical barriers for demand-side options relate to uncertainty over effectiveness • Significant pressure-group objections to many supply-side options • Significant customer barriers to many demand-side options
What next? • Explore characteristics of different adaptation options with stakeholders • How can portfolios of adaptation options be implemented? • Multiple ownership of the challenge of coping with water resources deficits
Thank you www.walker-institute.ac.uk