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Real-time Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP

Space Weather Workshop, Boulder, CO, April 29, 2008. Real-time Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP. Presenter: Charles P. Holmes 1 for Arik Posner 1,2 , Bernd Heber 3 , Oliver Rother 3 , and Reinhold M ü ller-Mellin 3 1 NASA HQ, SMD Heliophysics Division

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Real-time Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP

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  1. Space Weather Workshop, Boulder, CO, April 29, 2008 Real-time Radiation Storm Forecastingwith SOHO/COSTEP Presenter: Charles P. Holmes1 for Arik Posner1,2, Bernd Heber3, Oliver Rother3, and Reinhold Müller-Mellin3 1NASA HQ, SMD Heliophysics Division 2Southwest Research Institute 3University of Kiel, Germany

  2. COSTEP+ Forcasting Team: R. Mueller-Mellin COSTEP Operations O. Rother Real-time Implemen-tation A. Posner Forecasting Technique B. Heber COSTEP PI SOHO/COSTEP 1:1 Model Thanks also to SOHO/SOC and CCMC at GSFC and Univ. Turku, Finland

  3. NASA Heliophysics Division Objectives

  4. The Problem:Exposure Risk from Fast-Rising Solar Proton Events Lower Limit for Acute Radiation Sickness from 1h Exposure From Kim, Hu, and Cucinotta, AIAA, 2005

  5. EVA Abort Command Issued New Space Weather Forecasting Tool from Heliophysics Science Program Solar electrons reach the Earth-moon system about one hour before the solar proton radiation hazard arrives. New research has shown that electrons traveling at the speed of light are always present in solar particle eruptions. These electrons – traveling much faster than the hazardous solar energetic protons – follow the magnetic lines of force from the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, they can be used as a reliable early warning sign of hazardous radiation ahead.

  6. Electron Intensity Even in the case of the fastest-rising major proton event on record (Jan. 20, 2005), the electron precursor signal was detected 20-25 minutes in advance. EVA Abort Complete SOHO COSTEP: A one-hour warning has the potential to provide the advanced notice needed for efficient EVA planning. This is an important example of the potential for further rapid transition of SMD Research to SOMD/ESMD Operations – May 2007 to Feb 2008 – this new prediction tool has entered V&V by the JSC/SRAG for future Shuttle, ISS, and CEV operations. Slow Fast Electron Rise Parameter Empirical Forecasting Matrix Translates Solar Electron Data into +1h Proton Hazard Forecast (Posner, Space Weather, 2007)

  7. Forecasting ResultsAlso: Combined ModelsPosner / Townsend space radiation analysis group Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center AW AW FW AW FW+AW FW

  8. Zoom into 16-40 MeV Proton Forecast Black: Forecast Red: Observations Blue: Hazard Warnings Here: ~20 Minutes Warning with Intensity-Time Profile Prediction Posner, Space Weather, May 2007

  9. Archived Data Stats 2003-2007 24 Proton Events beyond Threshold 10/11 Prompt Events Forecast (91%) with 122 min average warning time 9/13 Delayed Events Forecast (69%) Overall: 79%, 195 min average warning time 13 False Warning Series (10 from Decreases) SOHO COSTEP

  10. Real-Time Data Feb. 7-Apr. 23, 2008 In Place for 76.2 Days Live: 33.3 Days (43.7%; Main Limitation: SOHO DSN Downlink) 0 Proton Events beyond Threshold 1 False Warning (April 7, Radio Frequency Interference?) 1 Software Glitch (April 18, 60 Forecast Hrs Lost) Single False Warning Glitch SOHO COSTEP

  11. http://www-etph.physik.uni-kiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/http://www-etph.physik.uni-kiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/

  12. Summary • First SPE Ion Intensity-Time Profile Forecasts • Forecasting Successful because SPE Electron and Proton Acceleration & Transport Closely Linked • 4.5 Year Verification Highly Successful for Prompt SPEs • Implementation with SOHO Complete, on Console at JSC/SRAG since Launch of STS-122, February 2008 • URL: http://www-etph.physik.uni-kiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/ • Not Designed to Forecast Slow-rising (“Delayed”) Events: Nowcasting • Flux Decrease FW Problem to be Addressed: no Flares!

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