Presentation Transcript

1. Source Everywhere, Manufacture Everywhere, Sell Everywhere A Presentation to CALSIAN Trade Association, Board of Directors, San Francisco, June 29, 2012 Presenter: Gus Koehler, Ph.D., President, Time Structures, Inc. 1545 University Ave., Sacramento, CA 916-564-8683 Gus@TimeStructures.com Yang Yongliang, "Viridescence, Stock World“ 2009 LMIN Gallery, San Francisco, http://limnartgallery.com/artwork/952850_Yang_Yongliang_Viridescence_Stock_World.html
2. Whom Do We Trade With?What Is Traded?How Are Both Likely to Change?
3. Time Structures US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012
4. US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012 Time Structures
5. Economist, The World in 2036, Nov. 22, 2010. Time Structures
6. Time Structures http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/18/business/growth-in-the-g-20.html?ref=world
7. 70 Trillion Rupees 400% 41 Trillion 1,370% Increase 17 Trillion Rupees 3 Trill Time Structures
8. 2.4 Trillion 500% Increase Middle and Upper 1.7 Trillion 452 Billion 685% Increase Middle and Upper 248 Billion CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Time Structures
9. Foreign Direct Investment Now Flows to Developing Nations Time Structures
10. US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012
11. Time Structures
12. United States China Germany Japan Time Structures
13. EU (All Members) United States China Time Structures
14. California’s Largest Metropolitan Centers Drove 73% of the State Exports in 2010 Brookings, Export Nation 2012.
15. Metropolitan Opportunities to Increase Direct Exports Unexploited CA runways with capacity to land 747 to increase agricultural and other exports: Central Coast: Santa Maria Central Valley: Sacramento, Stockton, Castle, Fresno, and Bakersfield Inland Empire: Ontario, March, and San Bernardino Source: Jock O'Connell, Foreign Trade Consultant, Time Structures, Inc.
16. What New Dynamics Drive California’s Global Trade Competitiveness? Can California Be A First Mover?
17. Core Issues and California’s Future Competitive Advantage New Materials & Invented Programmable Organisms Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Machine Learning melds with cognitive Science Global Logistics Systems + + + New Organizational Forms and Services Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction vs. Effects of Climate Change Diverse Networks (Research, Financial, Production, Energy, Conservation, Supply, etc.) Ubiquitous use of IT, Massive Data Bases and Social Media Innovative Workforce Skills In Groups + + + = Brief Competitive Advantage Level of Unknown Change: Red Highest, Orange Medium High, Green Medium,&Blue Lowest. Time Structures
18. Current and Emerging Multinational Firm Characteristics: Elastic Globally, locally focused competitive quality, design, technology, and management First World brand building and manufacturing and globally marketed via social media Excellent Logistics Rapid redefinition and response to changing markets using social media Small and Medium Company acquisition savvy and fluid networking Sustained IT edge to provide insight and transform business Unconventional thinking by local engineering, IT, marketing and other staff Play both competitor and partner Source: Agtmael (2007). The Emerging Markets Century. Time Structures
19. Emerging Micro-Multinationals 30,000 multinationals in 1990 vs. 60,000+ today with smaller average size Due to access to technology, and IT Five+ people with local or global contract workers Recruit skilled workers Locally: Engineers in Argentina at 1/3 US cost Very specialized services: programing, data processing, typing transcripts Business on broadband, social networks, e-mail, wikis Highly networked suppliers, and partners Quality products at low cost In US run by a foreign expatriate Time Structures
20. Entrepreneurial
21. Entrepreneurial Time Structures Kauffman Foundation, 2012 at: http://www.kauffman.org/research-and-policy/kiea-2012-infographic.aspx
22. 72% 54% 45% 36% 30% Time Structures
23. Time Structures
24. Time Structures http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/pdf/c04.pdf
25. Time Structures
26. Time Structures Technology Review (MIT) May/June 2012
27. USA
28. NAS, The Role of the Chemical Sciences in Finding Alternatives to Critical Resources: A Workshop Summary, 2012
29. Global loss of Manufacturing Jobs to Productivity IT and Other Increases: California is not alone William A. Ward Clemson, Manufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US, China, and Global Job Scenes—1990 to 2005, University Center for International Trade Working Paper 052507, (August 4, 2005) Time Structures
30. +
31. Global bal Atlantic, June 13, 2012. Time Structures
32. Time Structures http://www.itif.org/files/2008_State_New_Economy_Index.pdf
33. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The World at Work 12 http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research /labor_markets/the_world_at_work
34. World too few High-Skilled + Medium Skill Worker = Business Magnet for countries with more skilled workers Percent of Total Unmet Worker Demand is: Million Global Million
35. For California: Time Structures
36. Graph : Percent of California's Workforce Population by Ethnicity Aged 15-59 50.0% 14.0% 45.0% 12.0% 40.0% 10.0% 35.0% White Hispanic 30.0% 8.0% Asian 25.0% White and Hispanic All Other Ethnic Groups Pacific Islander 6.0% Black 20.0% American Indian 15.0% 4.0% Multiracial 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2000 2010 2020 Latinos Will Dominate 2020 Workforce Source: CA Dept. of Finance and Time Structures Time Structures
37. Time Structures http://measuringup2008.highereducation.org/print/NCPPHEMUNationalRpt.pdf
38. California Certificate and Degree Completion Rate Is Low Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, “Measuring-up 2006.” http://measuringup.highereducation.org/_docs/2006/statereports/CA06.pdf Time Structures
39. “Chasing the American Dream: Recent College Graduates and the Great Recession (2012)
40. Time Structures
41. Global Trade Dynamics Are Chaotic Creating Unexpected Market Opportunities and Collapses It is not “trade as usual” Culturally complex middle class markets will grow fast in China, India, and other BRICS California has underutilized global export capacity A highly trained, culturally diverse innovative workforce will drive competitive advantage as long as there is a skewed global distribution of skills Exports markets will move more to the internet requiring higher computer and cultural marketing skills, increasing product churn California does not have a monopoly on small multicultural Innovative firms which will play an ever increasing trade role Research, patenting and collaboration are global threatening any one country’s long-term domination of a single technology sector Productivity, logistics, velocity of service as driven by global IT is critical to competitive advantage
42. Time Structures, Inc. Contact Information Presentations like this have been made to, among others, the California Community Colleges, Chancellor’s Office, California Workforce Investment Boards, California Redevelopment Association’s Board of Directors, California Student Financial Aid Commission, California Council on Science and Technology, California Association for Economic Development, and the various local economic development organizations. To make arrangements to have this presentation made to your group or to have one created to meet your particular needs contact: Gus Koehler, Ph.D., President Time Structures, Inc. 916-564-8683 or Gus@TimeStructures.com