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Get Out The Vote

Get Out The Vote. The Leadership Institute. GOTV. TRUE OR FALSE?. GOTV should be focused on getting as many voters out to the polls as possible. The Leadership Institute. GOTV. GOTV – Targeted Activity. Objective Get out YOUR vote!

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Get Out The Vote

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  1. Get Out The Vote The Leadership Institute GOTV

  2. TRUE OR FALSE? GOTV should be focused on getting as many voters out to the polls as possible. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  3. GOTV – Targeted Activity Objective • Get out YOUR vote! • GOTV activities should be targeted to supporters who you identified through micro targeting and voter identification efforts. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  4. GOTV – Targeted Activity Low-propensity voters vs. High-propensity voters The Leadership Institute GOTV

  5. GOTV – Targeted Activity Low-propensity Low-propensity How to mobilize these voters High-propensity Favorable Voters High-propensity Unfavorable Voters Unknown and Swing Voters The Leadership Institute GOTV

  6. GOTV – Targeted Activity The Leadership Institute GOTV

  7. GOTV – Building a Foundation In order to maximize GOTV Efforts You MUST be intentional about VOTER IDENTIFICATION The Leadership Institute GOTV

  8. GOTV – Two Phases Phase One – AV/EV Phase Two – Election Day The Leadership Institute GOTV

  9. GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV) • Know your rules. • Know your dates • Develop your AV/EV programs (online/offline) • Execute AV/EV programs (online/offline) The Leadership Institute GOTV

  10. GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV) The Leadership Institute GOTV

  11. Not all votes are created equal 2012 Election: Analysis of AV/EV in Florida. Florida Ohio The Leadership Institute GOTV

  12. GOTV – Phase Two ELECTION DAY - Start several weeks in advance • Volunteer-based mobilization to remind voters of upcoming vote. • Develop Precinct Workers for ED • Develop “knock & drag” operations for ED • Develop Campaign War Room for ED The Leadership Institute GOTV

  13. GOTV – Mobilization Methods • Door-to-Door. • Phone calls. • Direct mail. • Robocalls. • Literature drops. • Television ads. • Radio ads. • Online ads. • Social media. • Events. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  14. GOTV Mobilizing Inclusion: Transforming the Electorate through Get-Out-the-Vote Campaigns Lisa Garcia Bedolla Melissa R. Michelson The Leadership Institute GOTV

  15. GOTV Get Out The Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout Donald P. Green Alan S. Gerber The Leadership Institute GOTV

  16. Door-to-door

  17. Door-to-door Most effective GOTV method • Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts. • Estimate: 6 contacts per hour. • Spillover effects for an entire household. • Targeted – not every voting household. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  18. Door-to-door Differences in canvassers • Local canvassers are more effective than non-local canvassers. • Latino canvassers reach Latino voters more successfully than non-Latino canvassers. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  19. Phone calls

  20. Phone calls Volunteer phone calls • Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts. • Estimate 16 contacts per hour. Commercial live calls • No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts. • With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  21. Phone calls Quality of the script • Conversational scripts are more effective than short and impersonal scripts. Follow-up phone calls • Follow-up calls made to individuals who promised in an initial call to vote leads to significant increases in turnout. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  22. Warning! From 2008 to 2012, the contact rate for phone calls in the Obama campaign dropped from 23% to 16%. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  23. Robocalls

  24. Robocalls An ineffective mobilization method • Effectiveness: 1 vote per 900 contacts. • A statistically insignificant effect. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  25. Literature drops

  26. Literature drops An ineffective mobilization method • Effectiveness: 1 vote per 189 contacts. • A statistically insignificant effect. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  27. Direct mail

  28. Direct mail Partisan direct mail • Large number of studies show the average effect cannot be large. • There are exceptions based on the message. Nonpartisan direct mail • Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts. • Borderline insignificant. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  29. Social pressure experiment Field experiment with four treatments • Do your civic duty and vote! • You are being studied! • Who votes is public information! • What if your neighbors knew whether you voted? Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters The Leadership Institute GOTV

  30. Social pressure experiment Increase in turnout compared to control group • Civic duty mailing: 1.8% • Hawthorne mailing: 2.6% • Self mailing: 4.9% • Neighbors mailing: 8.1% Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters The Leadership Institute GOTV

  31. Most effective GOTV tactic Apply social pressure to motivate people to vote. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  32. TV and radio advertisements

  33. TV and radio advertisements Television ads • Raises zip-code-wide turnout by 0.5 percent. • Mixed results and generally have weak effects. Radio ads • Raises city-wide turnout by 0.8 percent. • Mixed results and generally have weak effects. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  34. TV and radio advertisements Do television and radio ads matter? • The apparent effect of ads decay quickly. When do television and radio ads matter? • When there is a large advertising advantage. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  35. GOTV Final thoughts • Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters. • Door-to-door and phone calls are the most effective mobilization methods. • Leverage the power of a volunteer’s social network to mobilize and persuade. • Applying social pressure is the most effective way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls. The Leadership Institute GOTV

  36. GOTV Questions? dt@groundgamehq.com GroundGameHQ.com/leadership-institute The Leadership Institute GOTV

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