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Gridded Forecast Feedback System (GFFS)

Gridded Forecast Feedback System (GFFS). Verification Summit September 8, 2011. Background. Verification not addressed in basic AWIPS Digital forecasts revolutionized forecasting Good first guess grids became very important Needed powerful tools that operate on grids

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Gridded Forecast Feedback System (GFFS)

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  1. Gridded Forecast Feedback System (GFFS) Verification Summit September 8, 2011

  2. Background • Verification not addressed in basic AWIPS • Digital forecasts revolutionized forecasting • Good first guess grids became very important • Needed powerful tools that operate on grids • GFE Smart tools framework used to meet need • Local offices developed own tools/approach • BoiVerify has become default standard • FY06 PPBES item submitted • Approved in fy10 as OAR earmark in NWS budget

  3. GFFS Objectives • Re-host BoiVerify functions in AWIPS II • Enhance smart tool framework to better accommodate BoiVerify functions • Utilize AWIPS II services vs current external approach • Empower local office adaptability • Expand suite of parameters verified • Facilitate more powerful tools

  4. Methodology • Generate bias statistics using local analysis, all available local data • Includes terrain correction • Maintain running period of last 30-60 days bias • Bias statistics available for all sources of possible guidance (typically ~ 30) • Bias for T, Td, Tmax, Tmin, RH, etc • Apply chosen bias correction to initialized grid forecast

  5. GFFS Characteristics • GFFS used to prepare forecast grids • Used by local forecasters • Runs in local office (WFO,RFC,TPC etc) • Designed to incorporate algorithms developed locally by forecasters • GFFS feedback needed in real-time (<10 sec) • Directly modifies grids used to generate full range of forecast products • GFFS runs inside AWIPS II

  6. GFFS Requirements • Real-time graphical assessment • Develop new local analysis sources & techniques • Notify forecaster in real-time of forecast discrepancies based on user-defined thresholds • Archive 18 months of GFE grids and 2 weeks of raw model output • Locally configurable analyses, verification algorithms, skill scores, etc

  7. Possible Collaboration • GFFS/NEVS developers have met to explore areas of mutual interest • Data storage approach • Application framework • Algorithm • Best prospects are future complex algorithms, object based

  8. Summary • GFFS essential in local forecast grid generation • Highly configurable to address local needs • Provides real-time verification support to improve local forecast grids

  9. Questions ??? • GFFS - Where verification gets to work

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