Download
1 / 23
230 likes | 421 Views
Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC. Byoung-Joo Jung 1 , Hyun Mee Kim 1 , Yeon-Hee Kim 2 , Eun Hi Jun 2 1 Dep. of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
E N D
Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC Byoung-Joo Jung1, Hyun Mee Kim1, Yeon-Hee Kim2, Eun Hi Jun2 1Dep. of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 2Forecast Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological research/KMA, Seoul, Korea 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium 14-18 September 2009 Monterey, California, US
OUTLINE 1. T-PARC activity 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI 3. OSEs 4. Summary
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY • Provision of real-time adaptive observation guidance to ECMWF T-PARC DTS and JMA website • Implementation of observation system experiments 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY Configuration for real-time Sensitivity Guidance Model : MM5 Adjoint Modeling System with Lancoz Algorithm Domain : 50 x 50 x 14 (120 km) Norm : Dry-TE Two fixed target region : Taiwan , Japan Moist Basic-state with simple moist linear physics 48h optimization time with 48h lead time NCEP GFS data is used for initial and boundary conditions 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY 2008.04.21 Flowchart of Real-time SV sensitivity strategy 48 h 48 h Ti Ta Tv 00z 06z 12z 18z 00z 06z 12z 18z 00z Data download SV calculation Flight !!! Decision Pre-process Post-process Upload product to JMA & ECMWF DTS 0h 6h 16.5h 17.5h 6.5h 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
30 1 2 29 28 27 26 25 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI DOTSTAR Obs. 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
UYonsei MM5SV NRL SV JMA SV ECMWF SV UMiami-NCEP ETKF UKMO ETKF 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI ※Figures are from ECMWF DTS 0000 UTC 27 September 2008 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
UYonsei MM5SV NRL SV JMA SV ECMWF SV UMiami-NCEP ETKF UKMO ETKF 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI ※Figures are from ECMWF DTS 0000 UTC 28 September 2008 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs • Modeling Systems • Physics configuration • Data used 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3 day forecast 3 day forecast 3 day forecast 06 UTC 26 Sep 2008 00 UTC 28 00 UTC 27 12 UTC 27 12 UTC 26 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3. OSEs • Experimental design 30 • 3 set of OSEs 1 29 28 27 26 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs ① ALL LAND SEA To identify the relative importance of LAND/SEA observations. 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs ② ALL ALL-DROP ALL-QSCAT ALL-SATEM Among the main observations over the sea area, which OBS TYPE is the most important ??? 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs ③ ALL LAND LAND+SV Can sensitive regions suggested by SV guidance improve track forecast ??? 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : OBS distributions 00 UTC 27 Sep 06 UTC 27 Sep Targeted dropsonde SATEM QSCAT the others 12 UTC 27 Sep 18 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : OBS distributions and Sensitivity guidance 00 UTC 27 Sep 06 UTC 27 Sep SV criteria 1. Interpolate SV to 0.5 degree grid 2. Top 10% of grids are selected. ( a tenth of grids) 12 UTC 27 Sep 18 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3 day forecast 3 day forecast 3 day forecast 06 UTC 26 Sep 2008 00 UTC 28 12 UTC 26 00 UTC 27 12 UTC 27 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR 3DVAR ALL LAND SEA 3. OSEs : ① ALL, LAND, SEA 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : ① ALL, LAND, SEA 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : ② ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM ALL ALL-DROP ALL-QSCAT ALL-SATEM 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : ② ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : ③ ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV ALL LAND SEA LAND+SV 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3. OSEs : ③ ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV 00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
4. Summary 1. We have provided the real-time SV sensitivity guidance to ECMWF DTS and JMA website during T-PARC period. 2. In the OSEs with conventional and targeted dropsonde observations, observations over the SEA area is more important than those over the LAND area in short-range track forecast of TC JANGMI(200815). 3. Among the observations over the SEA area, DROP is the most important in track forecast. 4. The SV sensitivity guidance is helpful for 1-day forecast, but the impact is reduced for 2-3 day forecast. 5. More experiments for other T-PARC typhoons using other observations and data assimilation scheme are planned. 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
