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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow. Simon C. Scherrer Climate information team, Climate Services Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

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  1. Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow Simon C. Scherrer Climate information team, Climate ServicesFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Workshop "Spawning the Atmosphere Measurements of Jungfraujoch“26 November 2008, Bern Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

  2. Wednesday, 1 November 1922 The beginning… 1 November 1922 Beginning of meteorological observations 1 November 1922  observations for science, weather forecasts and aviation

  3. Yesterday… measurement site: 1925 – 1937 photo: Fahrni

  4. Since 1937… and today solar radiation, luminosity etc. temperatureTHYGAN north SYNOP obs. ASRB, GAW, CHARM old ANETZ hut (rot.) wind temperatureTHYGAN south MeteoSwiss SwissMetNet station autom. station since 1981 official SMN station since 09.10.2007  values every 10‘ NOTE: no precipitation + man. SYNOP program GAW/CHARM/ASRB

  5. MeteoSwiss measurement networks the highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe Jungfraujoch

  6. Today… Climate Change http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Monthly/Hadplot_globe.gif aus Trenberth 2007 Muir Glacier, Alaska

  7. TM, MétéoSuisse Photo: Ruedi Wyss From yesterday to today…

  8. seasonal dependence of older instruments replacement of instrument 1K site relocation and change of instrument type instrumental problems in extreme environment From yesterday to today… maximum temperature: homogenization amounts 1937-2006 homogenization amounts [°C]

  9. 1K Today…  homog. mean temperature 1937-2007 deviation from mean [°C] mean: -7.9 °C trend mean temperature: ~0.4 °C / 10y (since 1961) northern hemisphere land: ~0.3 °C / 10y

  10. Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe? • climate records:mean temperature trends • inter-annual variability • thawing days The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

  11. regional distribution of trendsannual mean temperature 1961-2006 Jungfraujoch filled circles: significant trends (5% level)

  12. vertical distribution of seasonal mean temperature trends 1961-2006 Jungfraujoch grey: averaged topography filled circles: significant trends (5% level) Appenzeller et al. (2008)

  13. Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe? • climate records: mean temperature trends • inter-annual variabilitytoday … • thawing days tomorrow The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

  14. Interannual (year-to-year) variabilityin Swiss Alpine winter climate Savognin 1990 Davos 1999

  15. The European Winter patterns (dynamics) North Atlantic Oscillation Atlantic Blocking European Blocking leading sea level pressure patterns (60W-40E, 30N-80N), DJF 1958-1999

  16. „Mittelland“ Alps How well can we explain the winter temperature variability at Jungfraujoch? Atlantic Blocking European Blocking Atlantic Blocking NAO Säntis

  17. “high fog” on the Swiss plateau Photo: Ruedi Wyss

  18. Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe? • climate records: mean temperature trends • inter-annual variability • thawing days tomorrow … The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

  19. Permafrost in Switzerlandpotential distribution of permafrost based on DHM25 modelling (BAFU 7/06) full thawing days = days with Tmin > 0°C source: Federal Office of environment (BAFU) legend: local permafrost possiblewidespread permafrost likely

  20. 48 2003 Annual count of full thawing daysJungfraujoch (1960 - July 2006) full thawing days per year logit-fitted trend: 0.55 d/yr, p-value: 0.02

  21. Projected changes in mean temperatureSwitzerland (CH2050 Project) from C. Frei (2006)change wrt 1990, Median and 95% confidence

  22. x3 Probability for Tmin > 0°C at Jungfraujoch 3500 3000 2500 altitude [m asl] 2000 today: ~15 % 2050: ~40% (range: 30-60%) 1500 1000 500 20 40 60 80 100 occurence [%]

  23. Summary • Yesterday… • frontier: extreme weather and climate conditions • high altitude observations for weather forecasts and aviation • Today… • highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe • homog. long time series of high altitude climate for global change issues • Jungfraujoch mean temperature increased by ~0.4 °C / 10y since 1961 • mean temperature changes similar to lower Swiss stations • but: large scale influences very different from lowland stations • Tomorrow… • continuation of JUN station (JUN is part of the new SwissMetNet operated by MeteoSwiss) • expected climate change impacts in Alpine region sensitive to “user group” • simple estimates suggest probability of full thawing days will increase roughly by a factor 3 in 2050 (from <15% to ~40%)!

  24. Thanks for your attention Appenzeller, C., Zenklusen, E., Begert, M., Scherrer, S.C., 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the total environment. 391, 262-268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.005 Photo: Ruedi Wyss

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