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Risk Assessment, RASP and IMPACT

Risk Assessment, RASP and IMPACT. Ian Meadowcroft. Meanings of Risk. Combination of likelihood and consequences of specified outcome Likelihood - usually annual probability Outcomes include flooding, damage (properties / infrastructure), effects on people, environmental harm

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Risk Assessment, RASP and IMPACT

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  1. Risk Assessment, RASP and IMPACT Ian Meadowcroft

  2. Meanings of Risk • Combination of likelihood and consequences of specified outcome • Likelihood - usually annual probability • Outcomes include flooding, damage (properties / infrastructure), effects on people, environmental harm • Individual and aggregate risk • Concepts / definitions / tools reviewed in SR587

  3. Conceptual Model: Source - Pathway - Receptor RECEPTORS: people, property, warning effectiveness PATHWAY: Defence operations, flooding SOURCE - High river, Tide, Waves

  4. Risk-based decision-making • New defences • Maintaining and operating defence systems • Flood warning • Restricting development in flood and erosion prone areas • Strategic planning, policy analysis

  5. Risk-based decisions..... • What is the national / regional risk? • What is the appropriate level of spending to reduce risk? • Which reach / defence poses the greatest risk? • Where are the maintenance priorities? • What impact might climate change have? • What combination of risk management most effective? • What is the ‘residual risk’, how will it change?

  6. RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning RASP methodology will deliver: • Failure probabilities for individual defences • Failure probabilities for the defence “system” • Total flood risk for identified community (impact zone) • An indication of the risk associated with each defence (using information on failure probability and consequences - economic or social)

  7. Indicative Floodplain

  8. Urban area Agriculturalland

  9. Estimate the probability of overtopping and breaching for each defence section Probability of Breach Condition Poor Condition Good Loading

  10. Risk: Annual Average Damage in each land use zone

  11. Approach to Risk Assessment Ian Meadowcroft ian.meadowcroft@environment-agency.gov.uk

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