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U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change. Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting) March 2012. UNCLASSIFIED. The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat. Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin. Climate Change. Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data
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U.S. NavyTask Force Climate Change Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting) March 2012 UNCLASSIFIED
The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin Climate Change Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008 Arctic Warming is 2 x the Rest of the World Mean surface temperature 2001-2007 relative to baseline period 1951-1980, from:The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009 UNCLASSIFIED
U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change Inform Policy & Resource Decisions Assessment Science & Network Monitor Conditions Roadmaps Update Roadmaps Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments
Navy Climate Change Concerns • Near-term • Increasing Arctic maritime activity • Partnership opportunities • Energy security initiatives • Mid-Term • Sea level rise impact on installations • Water/resource challenges • Potential increase in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response • Wild-cards • Ocean acidification • Abrupt climate change • Geoengineering
Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives • II. Safeguard U.S. maritime • interests in the region • III. Protect the American people, • our critical infrastructure, • & key resources • I. Contribute to safety, • stability, & security • in the region • IV. Strengthen existing & • foster new cooperative • relationships in the region Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010 V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic 5 Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited; Unclassified
Navy Installation Vulnerability Enabled & informed by sound science Physical Impacts • Inundation • Wetlands • Erosion patterns & rates • Surface/ground water supplies • Water tables • Tidal flows & currents • Storm & flood damage Naval Station Norfolk Camp Pendleton Naval Base Coronado Camp Lejeune Eglin Air Force Base • Navy Study • Identify most vulnerable installations • Local and regional infrastructure • Prioritize spending • Maintain mission readiness 6 UNCLASSIFIED 6
Naval Studies Board Recommendations Support ratification of UNCLOS Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops) Support research & development Address partnership demands Navy action is already underway UNCLASSIFIED
It’s all about water The Atlantic 2011 8
Partnerships National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) • Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership • A managed National multi-model ensemble prediction system. • A common modeling framework linking operations and research. Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) • ESPC is a coherent, national effort to extend atmospheric, oceanic and Arctic predictions from days to months, years • and decades to meet current and future Naval warfighting • and force readiness requirements. Critical Dependence on Space Observations
Accomplishments & Developments Naval Studies Board study Recent Accomplishments:(Feb 2011 – Jan 2012) OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress ICEX 2011 & Science Ice Exercise Plan Navy Arctic Studies - Mission Analysis - Arctic CBA - Arctic Env CBA* Thule AB Resupply Support for UNCLOS Accession Naval War College - Fleet Arctic Ops Game Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice numerical prediction NASA IceBridge Key Upcoming Events: USNA Interns & Curriculum Development NASA CASI Workshop Arctic CHOD Conference USN-USCG Staff Talks Leadership visits & staff talks Arctic Security Roundtable 2012 Asia Pacific Military Medical Conference 2012 Marine Corps University Journal Arctic Collaborative Workshop Conferences Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience) 10
Facebook.com/NavyTFCC greenfleet.dodlive.mil/climate-change/
The Team… NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL INTERAGENCY DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 600 individuals from over 175 organizations