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NOAA Production Suite Review December 3, 2018

A comprehensive review of NOAA's Production Suite transformations and strategic vision for a unified, systematic approach. Focus on UFS development, transition plans, governance functions, recent accomplishments, and limiting factors.

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NOAA Production Suite Review December 3, 2018

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  1. NOAA Production Suite ReviewDecember 3, 2018 EMC Implementations

  2. EMC Model Upgrades for FY18

  3. EMC Model Upgrades for FY19 • Phases 1 & 2 of WCOSS will be decommissioned by end of CY 2019 • NCEP Central Operations will implement a moratorium on most WCOSS operational application enhancements between February and August 2019 • Implementations to remain on schedule: • GFS v15 • NWM v2.0 • NBM v3.2

  4. NOAA Production Suite ReviewDecember 3, 2018 There is no “I” in CommuntyModelng

  5. Approach for Unified Modeling Planning • A concurrent, parallel planning approach • High-level/broad Strategic Plan • High-level Strategic Plan • Detailed Roadmap document • Short-term (0 to ~2-3 years) Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) combines implementation activities with near-term strategic action • Led by NWS/NCEP/EMC with NOAA and external partners

  6. Strategic VisionSimplify Modeling Suite … we will move to a product based system that covers all present elements of the production suite in a more systematic and efficient way Starting from the quilt of models and products created by implementing solutions rather than addressing requirements ….

  7. Requires partnerships and process for successful R2O2R • Decisions are: Evidence-based, Collaborative, Made with the same standards for all who contribute • Formal, agreed upon transition plans • Testbeds: CTB, DTC Components, services, and science from across NOAA/other federal/academic efforts in research and development Unified Forecast System UFS Research and Development Partners: e.g. NASA GEOS 5, JCSDA, NCAR,… NCEP Production Suite Implementation and Operations Infrastructure for facilitating collaborative development and testing • NEMS-NUOPC layer for coupling components • Community data assimilation projects (GSI, JEDI) • CCPP for physics • NOAA-NCAR MoA Governance functions at the interface of the NCEP Production Suite, the broader UFS and the broader research and development community. What is being governed is: a community-based, unified, coupled modeling system suitable for application in NCEP’s Production Suite (UFS).

  8. Transitioning at the UFSSystem Level e.g., FV3 dycore

  9. Transitioning at the UFSApplication/Increment Level e.g., Physics Package/Parameterization

  10. Recent Accomplishments • FY2018 NGGPS/SIPv.1 published • FY2019 NGGPS/SIPv.2 Kick-off, Follow-up, Publication • Unified Forecast System Steering Committee Established • CCPP Version 1.0 Released to the Community • Hurricane Supplemental Planning Meeting – April 2018 • Global FV3 released to the community • NCAR-NOAA MOA signatures nearly complete

  11. NEMS/ESMF Based UFS - Object Oriented Design • NEMS is based on ESMF and follows NUOPC convention • A numerical model in NEMS is represented by software and implemented as an ESMF grid component. • Each ESMF grid component has its own internal state with internal methods

  12. 500-hPa HGT Anomaly Correlation (20150601 ~ 20180912) SH NH Day-5 A gain of 0.011 A gain of 0.008 Die-off Increase is significant up to day 10 Increase is significant up to day 14

  13. UFS for Coupled Applications • UFS system initially consists of the following components • NOAA’s Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) for coupling infrastructure • FV3 Dycore with Physics driver (IPD) • MOM6 ocean model • WW3 wave model • CICE5 ice model • GOCART aerosol model • Noah MP land model • Each component has its own community repository. NEMS infrastructure allows flexibility to connect instantiations of the repositories together to create a coupled modeling system. • Any developments will involve creating branches in corresponding repositories, and connecting these together to build and test a coupled system.

  14. SST difference between MOM6 and OISST (day 20)

  15. Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in FV3 Development of next generation nesting techniques to address the tropical cyclone forecast problem within the global model

  16. Track Forecast Performance for Hurricane Lane ECMWF (EMXI) and NCEP Experimental FV3GFS (G19I) are the best performers for track forecast guidance. ECMWF had slightly better track errors in short-range (through 72 hrs) but FV3GFS outperformed ECMWF and NHC Official Forecasts of Hurricane Lane at day 4 and day 5.

  17. Unified Approach to DA • GSI community code – transition to JEDI for all components of earth/atmosphere. • Sharing of infrastructure – More efficient development • Involvement of community • Path forward for DA technique development • Improved estimate of background error • Multi-scale localization • Improved initial balance in analysis

  18. Limiting factors (issues/risks) • HPC (research, development, testbeds, operations, cloud, persistent) • NOAA’s HPC gap (between actual resources and the 100% requirement) is ~15x (for a mid-range Operational Suite) to ~32x (for R&D) • Sustained support for operations and maintenance • Opportunities to use cloud computing for projects of finite duration and/or limited funding (keeping NOAA data secure) • Scientific & Tech challenges (DA, single dycore vs. multi-model, 2-way coupling, ensemble calibration, etc.)

  19. January 2019FV3-GFS Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  20. Two-pronged unification towards S2S and Regional Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  21. Q2 FY 2020 FV3-GEFS to 35 days Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  22. Q1 FY 2022 Fully Coupled S2S Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  23. Q4 FY 2022 FV3-based stand-alone Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  24. Q4 FY 2023Regional nests (in ||) Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  25. Opportunities for NOAA Aligning with the R&D community

  26. Future direction/evolution of NWS modeling suite Strategic vision and Roadmap Evolution of NCEP modeling suite to a unified modeling system Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Foundation for new unified modeling system Short-term transitional evolution of CAM models Incremental steps toward long-term unification with FV3 Advancing Hurricane Modeling Transitioning to FV3-based applications Unified Data Assimilation Within the JEDI Framework Independent, community-based verification Evidence-based decisions supported by agreed-to metrics

  27. Thank you! Questions?

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