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Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Electric Demand Predictions

This document provides estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in New Jersey, based on energy use data and methods refined by NJDEP. It also includes preliminary GHG emissions predictions for 2005 and 2006, highlighting a reduction in emissions. The document discusses factors contributing to this reduction, such as energy efficiency and weather fluctuations. Additionally, it presents the New Jersey Energy Master Plan's predictions for electric use, identifying challenges and actions to meet them, including energy conservation, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.

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Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Electric Demand Predictions

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  1. Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Electric Demand Predictions Mike Aucott, Ph.D. NJDEP Office of Science New Jersey Clean Air Council 2009 Annual Public Hearing Trenton, NJ April 1, 2009

  2. GHG Emissions Estimates • Developed by NJDEP based primarily on energy use data from USDOE/EIA • NJDEP and EPA data also used • Methods continue to be refined • New NJ-specific data will become available soon and will improve the process

  3. Energy to Greenhouse Gas Conversions, NJ, 2004; based on carbon content of fuel, GWP of other gases, portion of emissions emitted in NJ, and other factors GHG

  4. GHG Emissions Predictions • Developed with linear projections of trends from 1990 through 2004 • Major uncertainties exist

  5. 2005 and 2006 Estimates Now Available • Reflect minor modifications of methods for some sectors • Are preliminary • Show large reduction from 2005 to 2006; this is true at the national level as well

  6. Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary

  7. 2005 2006

  8. Why the reduction from 2005 to 2006? • May reflect some progress in energy efficiency and development of renewable sources, but • Weather fluctuation is likely the major factor

  9. Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary

  10. Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary

  11. What about the future? • Prediction is difficult • Nevertheless, we must try to predict and plan • NJ Energy Master Plan presents predictions for electric use

  12. from Energy Master Plan (EMP): http://www.nj.gov/emp/

  13. Predicted BAU growth in electric use (from EMP) • Overall, growth of 1.38% per year between 2007 & 2020 • This rate leads to 97,800 GWh use in 2020 • In peak demand, growth of 1.75% per year between 2007 and 2020

  14. EMP identifies 4 big challenges: • Growth in supply of electricity has not kept pace with growth in demand • Price of energy has increased substantially recently, and has become more volatile • Without action, contribution to global warming and other pollution will continue • State has much less authority over supply and price than previously

  15. EMP identifies 5 major actions to meet these challenges: • Maximize energy conservation and energy efficiency • Reduce peak electricity demand • Strive to exceed current RPS and meet 30% of demand with renewables by 2020 • Develop a 21st century infrastructure • Invest in innovative clean energy technologies and businesses

  16. If successful, these actions will lead to major reductions in demand and increases in supply of clean and renewable electric power • But, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Niels Bohr • And, major systems have not been behaving in a linear manner recently

  17. And we have a long way to go in GHG emissions reduction to meet the 2050 goal

  18. Challenges ahead suggest it is important to: • Take long-term view • Expect variations from predictions • Strive for broad-based, multi-faceted approach to meeting energy needs and cutting GHG emissions • Maximize resiliency, redundancy, flexibility

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