Faults in Focus: Earthquake Science Accomplishments

1. Faults in Focus:Earthquake Science Accomplishments Thomas H. Jordan Director, Southern California Earthquake Center 28 February 2014

2. Risk = Probable Loss (lives & dollars) = Hazard ×Exposure ×Fragility ÷ Resilience Extent & density of built environment Structural & nonstructural vulnerability Disaster response, insurance, CAT bonds Faulting, shaking, tsunami, landsliding, liquefaction Land-Use Policies & Planning Earthquake Engineering & Building Codes Eqk Preparedness & Emergency Response Hazard Characterization is the Key to Risk Reduction

3. Economic Losses in Four Recent U.S. Earthquakes > $40 billion Direct Economic Loss ($ billions)

4. 17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake (M6.7)occurred on an unknown blind thrust fault… N aftershocks mainshock N

5. Science Accomplishments • Since Northridge, earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and NSF has • improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use planning, earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management • enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW) Earthquake origin time

6. Southern California Seismic Network in 2014 High-performance stations 1. Development of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)

7. 2. Improved mapping of seismic activity

8. 3. Improved mapping of active faults LA center Northridge fault in yellow Other blind thrust faults in red Southern California Fault Model (2013)

9. 4. Better earthquake scenarios Puente Hills EarthquakeScenarios(Magnitude 7.1 to 7.5) M7.2 Projected losses $82 B - $252 B 3,000 - 18,000 fatalities 142,000 -735,000 displaced households 30,000 - 99,000 tons of debris Percent Building Loss Field et al. (2005)

10. 5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation North American plate San Andreas Fault Pacific-North America plate motion 50 mm/yr Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) Pacific plate

11. 5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation North American plate San Andreas Fault Pacific-North America plate motion 50 mm/yr Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) Pacific plate

12. 6. Integration of seismic, geodetic, and geologic data into probabilistic earthquake rupture forecasts Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) UCERF2 Earthquakes Active Faults Tectonic Motions

13. 7. National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) EqkRupture Forecast New release in 2014 Ground Motion Model Shaking Intensity National Seismic Hazard Map (2008)

14. 8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models SFBA LA region CyberShake model of the Los Angeles region, comprising over 200 million synthetic seismograms CyberShake (2013) Hazard Model

15. 8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

16. 9. Deployment of a prototype Earthquake Early Warning system Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault Earthquake Early Warning Seismic stations

17. Conclusions and Recommendations • Earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and NSF has • improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use planning, earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management • enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW) • Congress should • reauthorize the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program to continue this R&D and its implementation • fund the USGS to deploy OEF and EEW systems in California, Washington, and other at-risk states

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