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Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders. Presentation to the Sentencing Guidelines Commission October 12, 2007. Elizabeth K. Drake Washington State Institute for Public Policy (360) 586-2767 ekdrake@wsipp.wa.gov www.wsipp.wa.gov. History of Development.
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Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders Presentation to the Sentencing Guidelines Commission October 12, 2007 Elizabeth K. Drake Washington State Institute for Public Policy (360) 586-2767 ekdrake@wsipp.wa.gov www.wsipp.wa.gov
History of Development • The Institute was directed to study the impact of OAA on recidivism. • 2003 report on validity of DOC’s risk instrument (LSI-R) found it predicted moderately well. • The Institute found that the predictive accuracy of the LSI-R could be strengthened. • DOC asked the Institute to develop a new risk instrument and a needs assessment.
Advantages Over the LSI-R • Primary Advantages: • Increased predictive accuracy. • Prediction of three types of high risk offenders: drug, property, and violent. • Decreased costs (time and fees). • Additional Benefits: • Objective demographics and criminal history. • Recording of criminal history, computerized scoring: • Reduces counting errors - verifiable. • Includes out-of-state, juvenile, felony, and misdemeanor convictions.
Two Assessments Developed 1. Actuarially-based “static” risk for reoffense: • Offenders are grouped into risk levels where each group has a different recidivism rate. 2. “Needs” assessment: • Captures risk and protective factors. • Supplements the static risk level for programming decisions.
3-Year Recidivism Rates for Each Risk Level Validation SampleN=51,648 80% Misdemeanor and Felony Felony 70% Felony Drug 60% Felony Property Violent Felony 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low (32%) Moderate (24%) High Drug (9%) High Property (19%) High Violent (16%)
Percentage Distribution of Risk Level for Each Offense Group Sentenced to Prison: 2000 to 2005 OffenseLowModerateHighHighHighTotalDrugPropertyViolent Total 22% 11% 12% 27% 30% 100% Drug 60% 7% 26% 4% 4% 100% Property 8% 10% 11% 56% 15% 100% Assault 12% 11% 8% 16% 54% 100% Robbery/Kidnap 10% 16% 6% 22% 45% 100% Sex 45% 14% 5% 12% 24% 100% Homicide 57% 13% 5% 8% 18% 100%
How Well Does the Adult Static Assessment Work for Sub-populations? Works just as well for: • Females • Minorities • Different Types of Offenders (drug, property, sex, and violent) • Sex offenders; predicts violent recidivism but not sexual re-offending See: R. Barnoski & E. Drake. (2007). Washington’s Offender Accountability Act: Department of Corrections’ Static Risk Assessment. Olympia: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
Adult Felony Offender “Needs” Assessment for Programming Decisions • “Needs” are factors that may influence whether the offender recidivates. • Risk (negative) and protective (positive) • Dynamic and static. • Requires a motivational interview. • Software makes task easier.
Ten Domains of Needs Assessment • Education • Community Employment • Friends • Residence • Family • Alcohol / Drug Use • Mental Health • Aggression • Attitudes / Behaviors • Coping Skills
What’s next… The Institute could evaluate how well the static risk and needs assessments are working for DOC.