Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist Library and Archives Canada, 4 May 2004

1. The pattern is new in every moment:observations on issues affecting libraries and archives within the framework ofthe 2003 OCLC environmental scan Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist Library and Archives Canada, 4 May 2004

2. The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review This year: Worldwide scan User perspective In format for sharing with membership

4. Pattern recognition We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios. Pattern recognition …

5. Worldwide Scan • 100 people interviewed • 29 countries selected • 60% of the world’s population • 85% of world’s gross domestic product

6. The words of things entangleand confuseWallace Stevens

7. Overview

8. Scan content Social Technical Economic I will use this framework to make some general observations … Research and learning Library (memory organizations)

9. Social

10. Trends • The ‘Amazoogle’ effect • Generations • The fabric of collaboration • Value The future is here. It's justnot evenlydistributed yetWilliam Gibson

11. * *

12. Internet search & answer NASA Quest Pregunte a un expero Schools Online Project ScienceLine Scientific-American: Ask the Expert Ammdoc.com Buscamed Eclevelandclinic.com Econsults.partners.org Enviar pregunta Expertdoc.net Findcancerexperts.com Go Ask Alice Mdexpert.com Physician referral center Poser une question Pregunte a RxExpress Ask Joan of Art National Museum of Art Reference Desk Ask Made iVillage AskLISA Laboratorio de estudos urbanos Abuzz Advice Trader Answers.com Ask An Expert Sources.com AskERIC AskJeevesAskVRD.org Ask the Old Buzzard CNN’s Ask an Expert Page Consejos practicos Google Answers Internet Public Library “Ask A Question” Keen.com Pregunta a los expertos Taxcafe Wondir Ask Auntie Nolo AskBAR Experts.com Poser un question Ask-A-Geologist As Ask Volcanologist Ask Dr. Math Ask Dr. Universe Ask Shamu How Things Work MAD Scientist Network Social landscape OCLC – compiled from various sources (May 2004)

13. Microcontent Last Minute Addition: Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 - $1Billion Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc. “By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.” (0.6 probability) • Top Ten Tech Searches 2003 • Ringtones • Digital Cameras • Mobile Phones • HDTV • MP3 Players • iPod • TiVo • Plasma TV • DVD-R • Camcorders OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003

14. British Library Sound Archive ‘People like to hear birdsong because they want to relive happy moments,' suggests Ranft, who has compiled and produced the albums for the library. 'They can relive a sunny spring afternoon or the really joyous moment of listening to a dawn chorus.’ • This week the archive is releasing two new birdsong albums, and soaraway sales are anticipated. The Observer

15. The Amazoogle effect • Three perceived attributes? • Comprehensive • Accessible • Immediate gratification The net generation doesn’t love a wallEric Childress

17. The fabric of collaboration: Social software The collaboration technology fabric OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

18. Trends Net generation Self-sufficiency Seamlessness Abundance Service Increasingly called to define value against the Amazoogle horizon Opportunity and challenge Social landscape ‘Technology is what has been invented since you were born’Alan Kay

24. Economic

25. Economiclandscape • Changes in funding of the public good • Normal cycles or permanent changes? • Sources and uses of funds

26. Library spending U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide library spending $29 billion LibEcon (August 2003)

27. Uses of library funds Staff 53% 33% 46% Materials stock 27% 7% Other 17% 14% ARL libraries 2001-02 eContent/subscriptions 3% Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01 LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)

28. Trends • Questioning the value of the public good • Education • Public services • Focus on impact and value

31. Value Professionaldiscourse Culturalheritage Learning Political discourse Access to information Securing the historical and scholarly record

32. Technical

33. Technology landscape • A generic technology review Where we looked and who we consulted: • Technology periodicals / publications • Leading technology vendors • Top technology analysts

34. Trends Ambient connectivity and embedded computation Unplug and play Coping with abundance Open source Convenience vs privacy

35. A new era – ambient and embedded Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003

36. Ambient and embedded • In an electronically nomadicised world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network. • Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.

37. The technology I most want is … “a PDA device that contains all the information I need to do my work.” —High School Student

38. Unplug and play • Software “pieces” • Web services • Distributed Common services • Google API • Amazon API • In 2002, 6.2% of Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform. Content services Application services The User Presentation services OCLC Research (August 2003)

39. How to organize a newabundance?Role of current approaches?

40. Learningobjects Personal Institutional Records Digital photographs Licensed E-prints Video ‘Contentpackages’ Audio GIS Software Databases Oranges & Apples Collection

41. Abundance Structured and unstructured data Manual and automated practices Relevence of intellectual investment in controlled vocabularies Complex object management Richer information models

42. Research and learning

43. Research & learning landscape Patterns of formal research and learning changing Science and data curation Scholarly publishing in transition E-learning Learning for life

44. Learning for work Learn, adapt, change • In 2001, US$23 billion • In Fortune’s 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies • $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

45. Learning for life • Equalizing access • Community, identity,memory • A third place • Social exchange and cohesion

46. scholarly information flow? Discovery,linking,embedding learning object creation, re-use Learning & teaching Deposit,self archiving Discovery,linking,embedding Courses, modules, Learning management systems, learning portals, … Discovery, harvesting aggregators Harvesting data analysis, transformation, mining,modeling Research & e-science Deposit,self archiving Repositories Validation Publish, discovery Data creation, capture and gathering:lab experiments, fieldwork, surveys, grids, media, … peer-reviewed journals,conferences, … A&I services Adapted from Liz Lyon

47. The Australian Research Information Infrastructure projects … will improve the infrastructure for managing and accessing the outputs of Australian research. The National Library of Australia is an active participant in these projects. The Library will contribute its expertise and recent experience in areas such as digital collection management, digital preservation, persistent identifiers, resource discovery services and standards for descriptions of access policies. The projects will also strengthen and focus the Library's collaboration with the higher education sector. Warwick Cathro, CNI, April 2004

48. A recent LJ article reported the results of a study in which librarians and scientists were asked to name the top three most reliable online services librarians named: ScienceDirect, ISI's Web of Science, Medline. Scientists, on the other hand, named Google, Yahoo!, and PubMed. Quoted by Carol Tenopir, Infotech, 4/1/2004

49. Institution

50. Interviews “Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc.” “Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.”