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Earth Observations and Energy Management Expert Meeting

Earth Observations and Energy Management Expert Meeting. Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Earth Observations for Energy Activities. • A two-step process (a) Use of new earth observations can improve weather forecast products

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Earth Observations and Energy Management Expert Meeting

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  1. Earth Observations and Energy Management Expert Meeting Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  2. Earth Observations for Energy Activities • A two-step process (a) Use of new earth observations can improve weather forecast products (b) Improved weather forecasts can lead to improved forecasts of energy demand / production  However, direct link between new observations and energy applications difficult to establish (unless instrument x improves parameter y, which is particularly important for specific energy application) • Probabilistic forecast systems seem to be especially appropriate to use in decision-making processes  First (idealised) experiments on potential economic value of weather fc’s suggest that probabilistic forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts  More studies with “real” application data are necessary

  3. Gaps in data & products • Information on “quality” of forecasts Users need to know how much they can trust the forecast information - what was the general performance of the forecasts in the past?  re-forecast systems - how certain/uncertain is this particular forecast for today?  probabilistic (ensemble) forecast methods • Information on what forecasts are needed Forecast producers need to know which information is needed in what quality - are there “exact” limits of when a forecast is useful / not useful  e.g. min Temperature in last 24h at LHR +/- 2K?  average precipitation over Norway in last month +/- 50mm?

  4. Enhanced Capabilities for the Future • Improved forecasts due to assimilation of new MetOp data  IASI is expected to have similar impact as AIRS, but oper! • Ensemble prediction system(s)  already available (but underused), more data soon (TIGGE) • Re-forecast datasets  in development, real potential has to be established

  5. NO SAT NO R/S FULL SYSTEM Impact of different observation types Northern hemisphere Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height (Mean over two summer and two winter months) Southern hemisphere Forecast range (days)

  6. Satellite data provide robustness to the global numerical forecasts (forecast busts are much reduced) NO SAT FULL SYSTEM NO RADIOSONDES WINTER NO SAT FULL SYSTEM NO RADIOSONDES SUMMER

  7. HIRS Jacobians (all channels) AIRS Jacobians (1/10th of channels) • Higher Spectral Resolution from Advanced Sounders •  • Higher vertical resolution and better accuracy • a lot of data to handle

  8. Research - Operations - Demonstrations • Transition from research to operations:  Relatively easy to achieve because of close link between OD and RD  Data availability from research vs. operational satellites? • Possible demonstration projects:  “Data denial” experiments?  Assess difference in decision-making process / benefits under 2 scenarios: control: no forecast information vs. exp: with forecast information

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