World Reduction Pathways International Climate Architectures The Participation Challenge

1. Post-2012 climate policy :the participation challenge from the « Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways in the UN-FCCC process up to 2025 » studyGRP, LEPII-EPE coord. for DG-ENVhttp://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/studies.htm

2. World Reduction Pathways • International Climate Architectures • The Participation Challenge • Consistent Strategies

3. World Reduction Pathways • International Climate Architectures • The Participation Challenge • Consistent Strategies

4. GRP: the need for further action • World greenhouse gas emissions, if unconstrained, will lead to high levels of atmospheric concentrations • Over the second half of the next century, the Reference Projection results in emissions of the 6 “Kyoto basket” gases (i.e. CO2 , CH4 , N2O, HFC, PFC and SF6) that are equivalent to 70-75 Gt of CO2 (GtCO2e) each year • This represents a doubling, from world current 6 GHGs emissions, i.e. 37 GtCO2e/yr in 2000 • These emission levels would induce concentration levels of more than 900 ppmv CO2e in 2100

5. GRP: goals and corresponding scenarios • The EU goal of limiting average temperature increase to “less than plus 2°C, compared to pre-industrial level” can be translated into concentration and emission profiles … • In GRP “reduction profiles” have thus been defined, for the set of 6 Kyoto gases: • S550e for a stabilisation at 550 ppmv CO2 eq. (450 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the “less than plus 2°C from pre-industrial” target for a low to median value of the Climate Sensitivity Factor • S650e for a stabilisation at 650 ppmv CO2 eq. (550 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the target only if the Climate Sensitivity islow

6. GRP: the S550e and S650e global profiles • Emissions have to peak before 2020 in S550e and before 2030 in S650e • 2050 emissions should correspond to “1990 emissions minus 15%” in S550e or to “1990 emissions plus 15 %” in S650e IMAGE 2.2

7. World Reduction Pathways • International Climate Architectures • The Participation Challenge • Consistent Strategies

8. GRP: the possible architectures • An international architecture without emission targets (e.g. commitment on R&D spending) is conceivable, but would probably miss any of the identified profiles • Emission reduction targets can be defined either: • through a global emission profile (top-down) • or individual targets for the different parties (bottom-up) • The form and timing for participation can be identical for all Parties or with differing targets or time-horizons • The type of commitment can be defined in absolute or dynamic terms (intensity targets) • Different equity principles can be used: egalitarian, acquired rights, responsibility, capability

9. GRP: profiles and architectures • While many options for the design of a climate architecture can be explored … • the commitments for the different regions basically depend on: • the choice of the long term emission profile • decisions made on the type of participation for non-Annex I countries • This is why the diversity in options can be subsumed though the use of a limited number of generic models

10. GRP: the Multi-Stage schemes • Multi-Stage is an “increasing participation” scheme, with Parties progressively entering into different stages: • in Stage 1 Parties have no “binding” quantitative commitment (case for the Least Developed Countries) • in Stage 2 they have to comply to dynamic “intensity targets” (case for the Emerging Economies) • in Stage 3 they comply to absolute emission targets, as resulting from the global profile (Annex 1 countries) • In GRP, three Multi-Stage schemes have been defined, using a Capacity-Responsibility index (cf. Art. 3.1. of UN-FCCC)

11. 2050 endowments: some hard accounting facts • From the GRP profiles and MS endowment schemes, one can retain the following useful orders of magnitude on outcomes and requirements :

12. GRP: Conclusions on profiles and endowments • The GRP study is only a first step, but shows that: • meeting the EU climate objective will require a peak in world emissions within a few decades • the taking into account of a global profile is probably a condition for attaining this target • the possible architectures are many, but simple schemes can be designed, with reasonable properties in terms of international equity • For the Annex I countries the S650e profile would imply a reduction in endowments by a factor of 2 in 2050 (relative to 1990); S550e would require a Factor 4 reduction

13. World Reduction Pathways • International Climate Architectures • The Participation Challenge • Consistent Strategies

14. Adaptation costs + residual damages S750e S650e S550e Mitigation costs GRP: Motivations for participation • For any Party to an international climate agreement, the first motivation for participation should be the safeguard of climate as a Global Public Good … • In order to avoid the adverse consequences of uncontrolled climate change, in particular for the most vulnerable parts of the world

15. GRP: Costs and potential gains from global cap and international trading systems • The ratio of direct (sectoral) abatement costs to GDP provides a good indication of the “rate of effort” for each region • In most Annex I regions and in 2025, this rate of effort represents 0.5 to 1% of GDP in S550e and 0.1 to 0.2% of GDP in S650e • Due to their endowments, low-income regions receive a net benefit from emission trading … • while intermediate income or high per capita emission developing regions incur net costs

16. GRP S650e effort rates up to 2025: sectoral cost / GDP Source: POLES model

17. GRP S550e effort rates up to 2025: sectoral cost / GDP Source: POLES model

18. GRP: Co-benefits of climate policies, the case of NOx • Climate policies induce significant changes from baseline for sulphur and nitrogen oxydes emissions • The positive impacts are particularly noticeable for the “low-income but rapidly growing” regions in Asia Source: IMAGE-TIMER model

19. World Reduction Pathways • International Climate Architectures • The Participation Challenge • Consistent Strategies

20. Elements of a consistent strategy - 1 • Further action is needed, global targets and emission trading systems will be keystones for collective action • The EU climate target will imply strong emission reduction targets (Factor 2 to 4 reductions for 2050 in Annex I countries) • The costs of these policies should neither be exaggerated nor minimized, as they will imply important changes in societies and major technological innovations

21. Elements of a consistent strategy - 2 • Mastering the low- or no-carbon energy technologies will be the key to sustainability and economic competitiveness in the XXIst century, but it will have costs in the short term • The EU has to set ambitious goals, but cannot do it alone. This implies to: • Demonstrate its capability to implement effective domestic climate policies • Identify international actions in the short term that aim at- and are consistent with- a future global regime

22. Elements of a consistent strategy - 3 • To ease the participation challenge, a solution to be explored might be the one of “proportionate targets” : • The EU sets an ultimate climate policy goal, with a range of targets for its own commitment • The EU’s binding target is then defined inside this range, proportionally to the commitments of the other key Parties • This may make international responsibilities clearer and to some extent deter free-riding …