Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe

1. Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research CommunityRio de Janeiro, October 6-8, 2001 • Co-ordinating Team: • Jan Rotmans • Chris Anastasi • Marjolein van Asselt • Caroline van Bers • Dale Rothman • Sandra Greeuw • Joanne Mellors • Jasper Grosskurth

2. THE VISIONS PROJECT • European Commission: Directorate-General Research and Development • Nine partner institutes across Europe • Co-ordinator: ICIS • Duration: 1998 - 2001

3. GOAL To develop challenging futures for Europe in an innovative, scientifically sound way on behalf of the social debate and strategic planning

4. RESEARCH PARADIGM Integrated Assessment (IA) is an interdisciplinary process of structuring knowledge elements from various scientific disciplines in such a manner that all relevant aspects of a societal problem are considered in their mutual coherence for the benefit of decision-making

5. GLOBAL TRENDS P P EUROPEAN SCENARIOS P P P INTEGRATED VISIONS P P P P North West UK Venice P Green Heart P REGIONAL SCENARIOS Represents scenario INTEGRATING SCALES

6. INTEGRATING SECTORS, FACTORS AND ACTORS Sectors • energy • water • transport • infrastructure Factors • equity • employment • consumption behaviour • environmental degradation Actors • governmental organisations • NGOs • businesses • scientists

7. INTEGRATING METHODS • Participatory methods (workshops, focus groups, interviews, expert panels) • Models (QUEST, Green Heart model, PHOENIX, Worldscan)

8. FORMS OF PARTICIPATION • Storyline Workshopsfree format / predefined inputlarger groupheterogeneous / homogeneous • Focus Groups predefined inputsmaller grouphomogeneous • In-depth Interviewspredefined inputindividualsrange of backgrounds

9. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK Participatory element Analytical tools Data collection & Trend analyses WORLD Expert group Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops Data-based and Model- supported EUROPE Transitions, Cultural Theory & Models Tensions group REGIONS Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops Model-supported Green Heart Interviews Participatory modelling Model-supported Northwest-UK Narrative & ICT tools Focus groups Interviews Venice

10. Storyline workshop Evaluation workshop Tensions workshop Linkages workshop Expert workshop Integration workshop Aggregation Enriching Maturing Screening Developing Rephrasing Strengthening Integration EUROPE Research Process PARTICIPATION DESK WORK

11. EUROPE • Knowledge is King: What if the nature of technological development encourages local capacity building while it facilitates globalisation? • Convulsive Change: What if climate change and other environmental problems are highly detrimental, outpacing society’s ability to adapt? • Big is Beautiful?: What if the ‘merger principle’ not only affects major industries, but also deeply affects social, cultural, institutional and ecological patterns?

12. Scenario pairs Scenario pairs Scenarios Scenario pairs Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenario quartet Storylines Storylines Images Sectoralscenarios Vision INTEGRATION PROCEDURE

13. SELECTION PROCEDURE • Similarities and tensions in terms of: dynamics, management style, outlooks, driving forces. • Combinations with the most emergent patterns from Europe - region interaction • Every European scenario should appear at least once

14. INTEGRATED VISION • Living on the edge • Europe in transition • Shadows of Europe Ltd.

15. Dynamics • Transition to high-tech society with a human face • Coupled transitions: economy, technology, lifestyle, work, governance and demography • European and regional developments strengthen each other • Transition with the necessary problems Underlying scenarios: Europe: knowledge is king North-West UK: sustainable communities Green Heart: technology rules Venice: cyberia

16. Characteristics • Societal divide: ‘connected’ and ‘unconnected’ • Mass migration from East Europe • Societal battlefield: revolution of the unconnected • Network-governance • Large participation on all levels • Co-existence of two groups Underlying scenarios: Europe: knowledge is king North-West UK: sustainable communities Green Heart: technology rules Venice: cyberia

18. UNIQUE FEATURES OF VISIONS • Bottom-up and participatory • Surprises • Complexity • Integrated (multi-scale and multi-domain)

19. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? The process of envisioning is at least as important as the the ultimate visions themselves Communicating the messages resulting from the envisioning process is difficult.

20. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? Difficulties with engaging stakeholders • availability • interests • recognisability • credibility

21. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? Structure and composition of stakeholder group should determine the kind of participatory method to use Future scenario exercises should be more stakeholder-oriented than purely stakeholder-driven

22. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? There is a big gap between the increasing complexity of our society and the analytical tools (IAmodels) that try to address this complexity IAModels only cover a small part of the required complexity

23. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? There is definitely a need for integrated visions (multi-scale, multi-domain, multi-perspective), but there are still hurdles to overcome

24. RESEARCH AGENDA • Participation and Modelling • Transitions • Uncertainty

25. Interested? • Check out the ICIS website: www.icis.unimaas.nl • Contact us: icis@icis.unimaas.nl