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Explore the small form factor consumer electronics market, differences between compute and consumer electronics applications, and the potential of the mobile phone market. Discover the key differences, market growth, product transitions, and business models in this evolving industry.
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Small Form Factor Consumer Electronics Storage Pat O’Malley Sr. Vice President Consumer Electronics
Small Form Factor Opportunities • Differences between the Compute and Consumer Electronics applications • Handheld Market for 1.0” and 1.8” hard disc drives • Mobile Phone Market – how big could it be and when? • NAND vs. HDD Cost Projections
Key Differences between Compute & CE Compute CE • Market Growth Stable; Mature Volatile; Emerging • Product Transitions Slow; Structured HH - Faster; Seasonal DVR/Game - Slow • Product Types Few; Standard More; Diverse • Product Life Cycles 2-3 yr. Upgrade cycle 2-10 yrs. Upgrade cycle • “System” Price Points $499-$500,000 $49-$499 • Channel Dependencies Direct; 2 Step Direct; Retail; E-tail • Business Models Integration sell Integration sell Co-Market options Direct Branded Subsidy
Handheld Market Market Characteristics • Portable audio is dominant application driver through CY05 • Image, PDA, video driving next wave of application demand • Significant number of players (20+) chasing portable audio today – not all will survive • Business models are suspect today as it appears few of the participants are making money on the hardware transaction • Handheld video acceptance still TBD – screen size, DRM, and battery life will influence growth rates • Without demand for video applications, capacity growth requirements could soften Handheld HDD TAM (1” and 1.8”) 30 25 20 2003 – 2007 CAGR=74% Units in Millions 15 10 5 0 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 1.0" 1.8"
Mobile Phones -HDD Total Available Market Estimate 7.0% 60.0 50.0 4.0% 40.0 Units in Millions HDD Attach Rate 30.0 2.2% 20.0 10.0 0.1% CY 2006 CY 2007 CY 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 CY 2005
Customer Volume Share Nokia 181 34.8% Motorola 75 14.5% Samsung 55 10.5% Siemens 44 8.4% Sony Ericsson 27 5.1% LG 26 5.0% Panasonic 17 3.2% NEC 14 2.6% Alcatel 7 1.4% Sagem 6 1.2% Sharp* 6 1.1% Toshiba* 4 0.8% Mitsubishi* 4 0.8% Sanyo* 4 0.8% Fujitsu* 3 0.6% Others 47 9.1% Mobile Phone Market by Geography/Make Source: Gartner March 2004 *Ken Takagi: Japan only volume, share estimated Replacement Rates: 26%38%15%44%62% Global: 31% Source: IDC Dec, 2003
HDD Storage vs. Flash Market Factors • NAND flash pricing reductions combat HDD entrance • 0.85” 3.3mm form factor high risk due to $/GB compared to flash • Need cell phone real estate to allow 0.85” 5mm form factor solutions OEM NAND Flash Data Point ~ $73/GB