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Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events

May 21, 2008. Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events. Chris Bronk, Rice University rcbronk@rice.edu | 713.348.5939 In partnership with the Institute for Study of Violent Groups - Sam Houston State Univ.

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Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events

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  1. May 21, 2008 Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events Chris Bronk, Rice University rcbronk@rice.edu | 713.348.5939 In partnership with the Institute for Study of Violent Groups - Sam Houston State Univ.

  2. Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events • Can violent group behavior be studied and forecast employing artificial intelligence and network clustering methods to OSINT? • We seek to better understand: • How terror groups form and evolve • How tactics develop and migrate • How outside factors impact the evolution of transnational groups employing violence • How to collect better quality OSINT for analysis

  3. Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events • We capture relational snapshots of terror group activity, visualizing how they intersect politically, tactically and rhetorically using OSINT material in relational network maps Kashmiri Groups World terror OSINT sample - pre-Bali bombing 2002 (90 days) Al Qaeda JI/Abu Sayyaf Al Qaeda World terror OSINT sample - post-Bali bombing 2002 (90 days)

  4. Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events • Areas for growth include: • Creation of schema for group distance and weight • Simulation of group behavior based on gap-laden data • Development of visualization and modeling combining ISVG terror group data with social indicators and economic data gathered at varying temporal granularity • Creation of a geopolitical instability barometer based on OSINT terror group coverage • Contractual support for data analysis and evolving collection capacity - $1.25m (2 years)

  5. Relational Linkages of Associational Networks in Terrorist Events • Application to IC missions may include: • Visualization of group/network behavior via non-traditional lenses • Evaluation of OSINT intake at varying levels of analysis on varying geographic and topical thrusts • Development of information sharing tools for OSINT portable to non-traditional customers • Algorithmic products for the measurement of geopolitical risk for a global system increasingly populated by trans-national actors

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