CC and Bangladesh

1. CC and Bangladesh Dr Mahfuzul Haque

2. Points for Discussion • Geographical Reality of Bangladesh • Vulnerability of Bangladesh to CC • 4th IPCC Report on Bangladesh • Adaptation • NAPA 2005 • BCCSAP 2009

3. Geographical reality • The geographic location and geo-morphological conditions of Bangladesh have made the country one of the most vulnerable ones to climate change, particularly to Sea Level rise (SLR) • Bangladesh is situated at the interface of two different environments, with the Bay of Bengal to the south and the Himalayas to the north • This peculiar geography of Bangladesh causes not only life-giving monsoons but also catastrophic ravages of natural disasters, to which now added are climate change induced disaster including SLR

4. Geographical reality • The country has a very low and flat topography, except the northeast and southeast regions. About 10% of the country is hardly 1 meter above the mean sea level (MSL), and one-third is under tidal excursions • Bangladesh has a humid, warm, tropical climate. Its climate is influenced primarily by monsoon and post-monsoon circulations. • Because of the very geographical situation of the country, a series of natural disaster; like, floods, cyclones, tornadoes, tidal bore, drought, desertification, river erosion regularly visit the country

5. Vulnerability of Bangladesh • A climate hazards calendar shows that • Floods occur from May-October with severe flooding during July-August period • Flash flood in April-June with severity in May • Drought from April to July with severity in May-June; • River bank erosion during June-October with severity in July-September period • Cyclones and tornadoes visit us in April-May and August-November period; and • Cold wave in January

6. Vulnerability of Bangladesh • Bangladesh is already facing the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change. The following impacts are being observed: • Summers are becoming hotter • Monsoon irregular • Untimely rainfall • Heavy rainfall causing water logging and landslides • Very little rainfall in dry period • Increased river flow and inundation during monsoon • Increased frequency, intensity and recurrence of floods

7. Vulnerability of Bangladesh • Crop damage due to flash floods and monsoon floods • Crop failure due to drought • Prolonged cold spell • Salinity intrusion along the coast causing scarcity of potable water • Coastal erosion • Riverbank erosion • Deaths due to extreme heat and extreme cold • Increased mortality, morbidity • Prevalence and outbreak of dengue, malaria, cholera and diarrhoea

8. Fourth IPCC Report 2007 • According to Fourth Assessment Report of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 the following changes have been observed in climate trends, variability and extreme events in Bangladesh: • Average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 1 degree C in May and 0.5 degree C in November during the 14 year-period from 1985 to 1998 • The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends • Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007

9. Fourth IPCC Report 2007 • Cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased • Water shortages has been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate • Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season

10. Fourth IPCC Report 2007 • The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems • The IPCC Report said that the production of rice and wheat might drop in Bangladesh by 8 percent and 32 percent respectively by the year 2050 • Bangladesh is especially susceptible to increasing salinity of groundwater as well as surface water resources, especially along the coast. Even under the most conservative estimate, the sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21st century

11. Fourth IPCC Report 2007 • Climate change impacts are already adding significant stress to our physical and environmental resources. Impacts of observed changes are felt most in the following sectors: • Water resources • Coastal resources • Agriculture • Health • Livelihoods • Food security • Habitat/Settlement security

12. Global Climate Risk Index 2010 • Global Climate Risk Index 2010 says, an average of 8,241 people died each year in 244 cases of extreme weather events in Bangladesh with damages amounting to US$ 2 billion a year and a GDP loss of 1.81 percent during 1990-2008 period. • Climate change induced disasters affecting lives and livelihoods of at least 20 million people, while 200,000 people becoming homeless every year in Bangladesh

13. Mitigation Measures • Are we ready to go for some mitigation and adaptation measures for stabilizing GHGs? • Mitigation measures are: • Promotion of renewable energy (solar, hydro, biogas, wind, wave etc) • Conversion of automobiles to CNG • Use of coal for brick kilns: improved model for kilns • Increased efficiency of fossil fuel burning • Introduction of Environmental Management System (EMS) for domestic and industrial energy use

14. Way Out? • Adaptation measures are: • Agriculture : saline tolerant variety of crops; floating gardens; rain water harvest; crop diversification; canal re-excavation • Habitat : Flood-proof homes; flood-proof drinking water and sanitation; cyclone shelters • Promote 3 Rs (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle)

15. ADAPTATION

16. Adaptation for Flood and Riverbank Erosion • Cultivation in Sandbars: in the Charlands, cultivation of watermelon, pumpkin and vegetables in polythene bags • Cage Culture: Fish cultivation in cages not affected by flooding • Cluster Village: Such cluster of villages are well adapted to CC in the face of erosion in raised earth • Flood Proof Homes: They are well suited against wave action and floods • Floating Garden: Such floating gardens in water logged area are capable to grow vegetables on water hyacinth. This is also known as “ Baira” • Early transferable Infrastructure • Flood Proof School can be used as shelter for cattle heads on raised earth • Livestock Shelter on School Ground (Killa)

17. Adaptation for Drought • Cultivation of rice with minor irrigation: rice grown in drought-prone areas • Digging of small ponds for water reservoir and cattle heads • Digging of mini pond in a crop land • Less water consuming fruits • Mango Orchard • Homestead Garden • Crop Rotation • Crop Diversification • Dry Seed Bed for Transplanted Aman • Maize Cultivation • Improved Stove

18. Adaptation for Flash Flood in Haor areas • Early variety of rice in flash flood prone areas • Submergible dyke to protect crops from flash flood • Flash flood proof rural market • Crop diversification • Early Maturing Rice variety • Village Mound Protection • Karach Swamp (Pongamiapinnata) Forest • Duck farming in Haor • Protection of fish farm • Canal re-excavation

19. Adaptation for Coastal Areas • Duck farming • School cum cyclone shelter centre • Embankment along the Coastline • Change in boat design • Afforestation to protect the Chars and river bank

20. Adaptation for Agriculture • Saline tolerant variety of crops • Pure drinking water in saline area • Floating Garden- Baira • Ring based hanging garden • Flood proof drinking water and sanitation • Crop storage • Rainwater harvesting • Melechash Red Cultivation • Cyclone Resistant Housing • Reinforced fishing boats • Abating Erosion from flash flood • Early warning

21. NAPA 2009 • National Adaptation Plan of Action 2005 (updated in August 2009) • Related to adaptation measures to climate change • Country-wide consultation was held

22. NAPA Measures • NAPA undertook some short-term and medium-term projects on Adaptation. How to mainstream adaptation to climate change into various sectoral policies of the government. Other specific measures are as follows: • Adaptation to coastal crop agriculture • Adaptation to coastal fisheries • Adaptation to Haor crops victims of flash floods in NE • Adaptation to floods • Adaptation to natural hazards

23. BCCSAP 2009 • Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009 • A pro-poor climate change management strategy, which prioritizes adaptation and disaster risk reduction, low carbon development, mitigation and technology transfer

24. BCCSAP 2009 BCCSAP built on following six pillars: • Food Security, social protection and health to protect people from CC impacts • Comprehensive disaster management to strengthen • Infrastructure Development accommodating CC • Research and Knowledge development on CC prediction • Mitigation and Low Carbon Development • Capacity Building and Institutional Development

25. Further Readings • Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh and UNDP, National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), August 2009. • Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), 2009. • Department of Environment, Climate Change and Bangladesh, 2009.

26. Probable Questions • What are the likely adverse impacts of climate change on the Agriculture sector, discuss. • Discuss vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change • What are the adaptation measures related to climate change in coastal areas of Bangladesh?

27. Thank you