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European regional climate change and the PRUDENCE project

European regional climate change and the PRUDENCE project. Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI. IPCC AR4 CH. 11 structure Jens H. Christensen (CLA).

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European regional climate change and the PRUDENCE project

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  1. European regional climate change and the PRUDENCE project Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI

  2. IPCC AR4 CH. 11 structure Jens H. Christensen (CLA)

  3. Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate ProjectionsLength:60 printed pages including all refs and figures, excl. FAQCLAs: Christensen and HewitsonLAs: Busuioc, Chen, Gao, Held, Jones, Kwon, Laprise, Magana, Mearns, Menendez, Räisänen, Rinke, Kumar, Sarr, Whetton • Executive summary (1-2 pages) • 11.1 Introduction (3 pages) • 11.1.1 The importance of regional projections • 11.1.2 Summary of the TAR • 11.1.3 Developments since the TAR • 11.2 Assessment of Methods • 11.2.1 Generating regional information (5 pages) • 11.2.1.1 AOGCM results • 11.2.1.2 High resolution AGCMs • 11.2.1.3 Nested RCMs • 11.2.1.4 Statistical downscaling • 11.2.1.5 Pattern scaling of climate model simulations • 11.2.1.6 Other methods • 11.2.1.7 Inter-comparison of methods • 11.2.2 Quantifying uncertainties (3-4 pages) • 11.2.2.1 Sources of regional uncertainty • 11.2.2.2 Methodological developments • 11.3 Regional Projections (30 pages) • Details on following slides • 11.4 Conclusions and discussion (1 page)

  4. Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate Projections • 11.3 Regional Projections (30 pages) • 11.3.1 Introduction to regions and relationship to WGII regions (1 page) • (Any sub-regions listed below may be further sub-divided if authors feel this is appropriate) • (Length: nominally 3-4 pages each) • 11.3.2 Africa • Sahelian Africa • Horn of Africa / Arabian peninsula • Equatorial Africa • Southern Africa • 11.3.3 Mediterranean and Europe • Mediterranean • Central and northern Europe • 11.3.4 Asia • Central Asia • South Asia • East Asia • South east Asia / Maritime continent • 11.3.5 North America • North America • 11.3.6 Latin America • Central America / Caribbean • Northern South America • Southern South America • 11.3.7 Australia and New Zealand • Australia/New Zealand • 11.3.8 Polar • Arctic • Antarctic • 11.3.9 Small Islands

  5. Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate Projections • BOX 11.1: Summary of AOGCM regional projections (2 pages) • Consistent method across regions, & to include uncertainty • Probabilistic statements based on AOGCMs, in coordination with Ch 10 • BOX 11.2: Common aspects of small scale climate change : High altitude (1 page) • BOX 11.3: Common aspects of small scale climate change : Coastal (1 page) • Table 11.1: Extremes (1 page) • Summary table in collaboration with Ch 3,4,5,9,10 & WGII • FAQ • Proposed FAQ: • a) Does this report say anything about what will happen in my back yard? • b) Will the weather become more extreme? • c) How can I use regional information that is uncertain? • (Why are regional projections useful?) • d) What’s downscaling? • e) What’s wrong with extending recent regional trends?

  6. IPCC WG1 schedule

  7. PRUDENCE participants • Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, DK • CINECA, Bologna, IT • Météo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, FRA • Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Weßling, GER • Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Bracknell, UK • Climate Research ETH (Eidsgenössische Technische Hochschule), Zürich, CH • GKSS Research Center (Institute for Coastal Research), Geesthacht, GER • Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, GER • Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrköping, SWE • Universidad Complutense, Madrid, SP • Universidad Politecnica, Madrid, SP • International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, IT • Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Foulum, DK • Risø National Laboratory, System Analysis Dept., DK • University of Fribourg, CH • Finnish Environmental Institute, Helsinki, FIN • University of Reading, UK • University of Lund, SWE • Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, SMASH, Paris, FRA • Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK • Finnish Meteorological Institute, Associated to FEI (No. 16), FIN • Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Blindern, NO • Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, NL • UQAM, Montreal, CAN • CSIRO, Victoria, AUS • Czech Republic, Israel, Greece, Belgium, Slovakia……………….. • Munich-Re, Electricité de France, Elforsk, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Uni-Münster, DG-Research, STARDEX, MICE

  8. PRUDENCE objectives • A series of high resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe • Characterize level of confidence and variability related to model formulations and climate natural/internal variability • Assess the uncertainty in European regional scenarios resulting from model formulation • Quantitatively assess the risks arising from changes in regional climate over Europe, and estimate changes in extremes like heat waves, flooding and wind storms, by providing a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of the changes • Demonstrate the value of the wide-ranging scenarios by applying them to impacts models focusing on effects on adaptation and mitigation strategies • Assess socio-economic and policy related decisions for which such improved scenarios could be beneficial • Disseminate the results of PRUDENCE widely …

  9. A modelling system for detailed regional scenarios – the PRUDENCE method Coupled GCM (300km atmosphere) SST/sea-ice change from coupled GCM Observed SST/sea-ice 150km global atmospheric GCM 12-50km RCM for relevant region

  10. Quasi-ensemble probabilities

  11. Precipitation change – sources of uncertainty C. Frei, ETH 95%-confidence: internal variability

  12. Precipitation change – sources of uncertainty 95%-confidence: GCM formulation, RCM formulation, internal variability OBS: Slightly different values since the changes in precipitation have been scaled to a 3 K change of the global mean temperature

  13. Probabilistic precipitation change Sensitivity x signal

  14. Variability sources in sub-areas 1 British Isles M. Déqué, Météo-France 2 Iberian peninsula 3 France 4 Central Europe 5 Scandinavia 6 Alps 7 Mediterranean 8 Eastern Europe

  15. Temperature change – sources of uncertainty JJA DJF Depends on driving model Also on RCM and scenario

  16. Precipitation change – sources of uncertainty JJA DJF Driving GCM and RCM RCM quite important

  17. Baltic water balance

  18. 9 RCMs (2 GCMs) ~50 km - 2 RCMs ~25 km A2 - 3 RCMs ~50 kmB2

  19. PRUDENCE work on extremes Better understanding of how European weather and climate extremes are likely to change: • Heat waves • Precipitation – heavy and low • Wind storms and storm surges

  20. Precipitation extremes

  21. Changes in HIRHAM 5-year return levels Summer 1-day precipitation 5-day Winter precipitation HIRHAM  Increases over Europe except for decreases in south in summer

  22. Christensen & Christensen, Nature (2003) Sensitivity due to GCM and RCM resolution ECHAM HC50km HC25km

  23. JAS precipitation [mm/day] Resolution 50km 95% wd 90% wd 99% wd 99.9% wd

  24. JAS precipitation [mm/day] Resolution 25km 95% wd 90% wd 99% wd 99.9% wd

  25. JAS precipitation [mm/day] Resolution 12km 95% wd 90% wd 99% wd 99.9% wd

  26. Wind extremes

  27. % change in 90th percentile of 10-metre wind speed RCAO  Increased wind speed intensity in core of Europe north of Alps

  28. A2 changes in max winter surge heights HIRHAM Changes (meters) in max surge heights from HadAM3H / HIRHAM.  Largest change of 0.3 metres on coasts near German bight

  29. Conclusions • Warming of near-surface temperatures • DJF: west/east gradient with strongest warming in the east • JJA: north/south gradient with strongest warming in the south • Changes in precipitation • DJF: mainly due to driving GCM but also due to RCM • JJA: dryer conditions in all but northern Europe • Large ensemble of simulations allows for the generation of probabilistic regional climate scenarios • Uncertainty of temperature changes • DJF: mainly due to driving GCM • JJA: also due to RCM and scenario • Uncertainty of changes in precipitation • DJF: mainly due to driving GCM but also due to RCM • JJA: to a large extent due to RCM

  30. Conclusions • Significant changes of the discharge into the Baltic • Increased magnitude due to enhanced winter precipitation • Earlier peak due to earlier snow melt

  31. Conclusions • Heat waves – increased frequency, intensity, and duration of summer heat waves • Increase in interannual variability of temperature –Summer 2003 could become more likely • Heavy precipitation – general increase except over S. Europe in summer. Central Europe will have less rainy days, but probably larger intensities • Wind storms –increased intensity and frequency of high wind speed events in winter • Storm surges –increase in maximum storm surge level of up to 0.3 metres especially near the German Bight.

  32. Near-surface temperature change - DJF

  33. Near-surface temperature change - JJA

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