Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

1. Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung, Steering Group Chair Neil Gordon, WMO Consultant November 2011

2. Outline • Short overview: existing draft • Key project objectives • Agreement on overall structure and chapters

3. Existing draft • Introduction • Mission statement • Benefits • Research plan goals • Strategies to achieve goals • Major campaigns • Governance and management • Financial plan • Implementation schedule • Contributing institutions and organisations • References • Abbreviations • Annexes

4. Introduction • Motivation of the project • Increasing importance of the polar regions • Prediction capabilities required • Background and history • IPY and IPY legacy • Oslo workshop(s) • EC-PORS and GIPPS • Now we motivate the structure of the remaining plan • Project vision including key objectives and benefits • Primary research goals to achieve the vision • Strategies for achieving the goals

5. Mission statement • Statement of the key objectives To be discussed later!

6. Benefits • Highlight the benefits of the project • Who would be the beneficiaries? • What will the benefits be? (see also GIPPS) • Highlight that further research is necessary throughout the 10-year period (see research goals and strategy)

7. Research goals: Detailed • SERA: Research and document user requirements and benefits of improved polar predictions • Verification: Establish and monitor verification metrics • Predictability and forecast error diagnosis (especially on longer time scales) • Lower-latitude impacts: Identify lower-latitude implications of forecast errors in polar regions • Physical and dynamical processes: Improve coupled modelling in polar regions • Ensemble forecasting: Representation of initial and model uncertainty • Data assimilation: Improve initialization strategies • Observations: Assess and promote required observational improvements/carry out field campaigns

8. Strategies to achieve goals • Enhance international collaboration: Discuss fundamental need of collaborative efforts • Strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational centres • Establish and exploit special research data sets: TIGGE, YOTC, reforecasts etc. • Promote interaction between research and stakeholders: stakeholder identification, engagement strategy etc. • Linkages with other initiatives: WCRP, EC-PORS etc. • Foster education efforts

9. Major campaigns • Do we need such a special section? • One could argue that this is part of the observations part of the Research Plan Goals section • One could make this more wider in focus, though (e.g YOTC-like). Could still be moved

10. Governance and Management • Governance linkages with WCRP, EC-PORS, THORPEX ICSC, WWRP JSC • How will the steering group operate? • Monitoring, review and evaluation • Stakeholder engagement • Establishment and hosting of a project office • Website • Terms of reference

11. Funding • Funding for overall project management • Funding for research programme activities

12. Implementation schedule • Extending over 10 years including milestones • Example of a milestone: mid-term review after 5 years.

13. Other sections • Contributing institutions and organizations • References • Abbreviations • Annexes

15. Key project objectives • Draft plan: “Significantly improved weather and environmental predictions in polar regions, on time scales from hours to months” • Improved prediction is central (user focused) • Top-down approach (funding agencies) • ICSC-9 document: “Provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions” • Another Option: Mentioning GIPPS explicitly (“Contribute to the development of the Global Integrated…”) • We could think of a combination of two

16. Agreement on overall structure and chapters

17. Thank you!

18. Research goals • Improved understanding of user requirements? • Includes research into the communication of predictions (+uncertainty) • Establishing the status quo: How good are we? • Verification and reforecasts • Determining the limits: Especially for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts • Potential predictability studies • Determining the gaps • Determine gap between potential and actual skill • Obvious gaps (e.g. lack of observations) • Objective techniques (origins of forecast error) • Filling the gaps

19. What is an Implementation Plan? • An implementation plan helps selling a project • An implementation plan is a tool for efficient • management of a project and • monitoring of progress • An implementation plan describes how a project will be delivered • on time, • on budget, and • on expectations • Here our task will be to write an implementation plan for the coming 10 years.

20. What it should/could incorporate • Clear statement of the goals of the WWRP-PPP • Benefits resulting from achieving these goals • Detailed plan how the goals will be achieved including • Deliverables and milestones, • An implementation schedule • Resource management • Funding • Risk management • Stakeholder engagement • Governance and accountability • Review, monitoring and evaluation • Additional information

21. Defining the goals • Could be formulated in terms of a project vision • A good vision statement • Written in present tense (description of desired future) • Is short, concise and memorable • Can be understood by stakeholders • Vision statement must reflect • The key objectives • The underlying need or problem • Context including approvals to date (e.g. decisions by governing bodies)

22. Benefits • Describe intended beneficiaries for each of the objectives • Benefits expected by specific objectives/deliverables • Monitoring and delivery of benefits • Benefits should be • Specific • Measurable • Achievable • Relevant • Time framed • Agreed

23. Deliverables • List of all products and services to be delivered • For each deliverable • List milestones that need to be achieved • A milestone is an important check-point • Resources needed to achieve each deliverable • Explain what activities will be undertaken to deliver the project • Identify related activities (e.g. within CLIVAR) • What is done in the framework of the WWRP-PPP and what is done elsewhere? • Provide implementation schedule • What will be delivered when?

24. Resource management • Managing resources is an issue since there is little control over resources (human and monetary) • Required expertise (e.g. steering group) • Budget/funding

25. Risk management • Plan for and deal with uncertainty • Risk is an uncertain event that will have an influence on the achievements of project goals • Risk identification • Changing circumstances • Changes to the scope of the projects • Discussion with stakeholders • Risk planning • Development of a risk management plan

26. Stakeholder engagement • Identifying and communicating effectively with those people or groups who have an influence or interest in the outcome of the project • Development of a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy • Stakeholder identification • Development of a Stakeholder engagement and communication plan

27. Review, monitoring and evaluation • Review of progress at regular time intervals • Review conducted by WWRP-PPP steering group • Progress reports are presented to various committees.

28. Writing of the Implementation Plan: Time table • November 2011: Work on the skeleton of the IP • Kick-off meeting: • Discussion of the structure of the IP • Identification of key topics • Identification of lead authors • Agreement on deadlines • Winter 2011/12: Writing of the IP • Spring and summer 2012: Presentation to various committees • Autumn 2012: Establishment of a project office