On The Road Real-World EV User Experience

1. On The Road Real-World EV User Experience

2. The CABLED (Coventry & Birmingham Low Emissions Demonstrator) program aims to evaluate real world usage of low carbon vehicles to reduce city congestion and emissions

3. Leadtime from functional concept to volume production can be a longer path than is often assumed Automatic Transmission 1930-1946 16 years Radio 1890-1914 24 years Radar 1904-1939 35 years Helicopter 1904-1941 37 years Television 1884-1947 63 years Ballpoint Pen 1938-1945 7 years Zipper 1883-1913 30 years Instant Coffee 1934-1956 22 years

4. Beckhard’s change model gives us a simple way to assess the difficulties of implementing change C = (ABD) > X C = Change A = Level of dissatisfaction with status quo B = Desirability of the proposed change or end state D = Practicality of the change (minimal risk and disruption) X = ‘Cost’ of changing Automotive industry particularly conservative due to levels of investment and tight margins

5. Although other transport modes, such as bus, train & cycling can help reduce emissions and congestion, the use of private cars will remain and important means of transport in any future system Number of trips National Transport Survey 2009

6. Typical transport needs indicate that compact vehicles have and important part to play in current and future transport requirements. National Transport Survey 2009 People Travelling in Vehicle

7. We know from previous studies that people use their existing petrol and diesel vehicles for shorter trips than they think….. • >90% Trips engine speed <3000rpm • 50-60% Trips oil/water temp. <65°C • 20-23% of Urban trip duration, engine is at idle. Source: GM Study & SAE 890874

8. One potential solution to this problem is the adoption of Electric Vehicles (BEV)

9. Technology roadmaps provide high level trends, but are often dependant on external determinants e.g. energy pricing, taxation and government policy Source: NAIGT

10. Well to Wheels CO2 production of different powertrain technologies

11. Grid mix makes dramatic differences in vehicle CO2 impacts. Grid mix changes are long term strategic drivers.

12. Real-world user experience can vary considerably from test and official cycle data RAC low carbon vehicle Brighton run (same route, same day), shows considerable variation across same vehicle models and types

13. Understanding of duty cycle development vital for optimized vehicle architecture and operation

14. CABLED Consortium Members Academia Local Government Project Management Infrastructure Vehicle Manufacturers

15. CABLED trial part of UK Technology Strategy Board 350 demonstrator of ultra low carbon vehicles Mitsubishi Tata Smart LTi LandRover Microcab Number of cars in the trial 25 25 45 5 5 8 H2 Public Trial Industry Trial Electric Hybrid Fuel Cell • Typical Specification for EV: • Max range: 80-100 miles • Recharge times: 6-8 hours • Max speed: 70-80 mph http://www.cabled.org.uk/

16. Data via satellite gathered from each vehicle 24/7 over 12 month period/user • Map Usage of vehicles over extended period • Familiarly gained with vehicle (changing behaviours) • Seasonality effects observed • Comparative studies done with information flow • Conventional Vs EV range • Charge-point location/number • Efficiency & state of charge data • Charging cost incentives

17. Journey start times indicate full range of journey types (work, leisure, shopping, etc.)

18. Vehicles received full usage throughout hot & cold seasons. No significant seasonality effects observed on battery performance or range

19. Typical vehicle speeds follow the expected profile for normal city/urban driving patterns dominated by traffic flow, with occasional highway excursions High idle times (zero speed) removed for clarity

20. Average daily mileage for all EV trips is in line with national transport surveys for petrol and diesel vehicles. Total daily use of the vehicle is less than half of the battery capacity of a typical EV.

21. Daily mileage variation across users related to home & work locations

22. Daily mileage showed some signs of increasing with confidence over user lease period

23. CABLED vehicles usage comparable to expected typical journey data from National Transport Survey

24. Individual journey distance covered for EV’s indicates a bias towards short trips, consistent with normal driving styles seen with conventional petrol and diesel vehicles.

25. Users journey durations (minutes). This indicates that most journeys are of short duration, giving opportunity for re-charging. Vehicles are typically parked for >95% of the time in a 24 our period.

26. Charge used per journey indicates adequate range for most onward travel

28. Charging pattern of cars on the trial (no incentives)

29. Charging done for convenience at locations of high residency time (no incentives) ACD 2:35 ACD: Average Charge Duration time (hours:minutes) ACD 2:32 ACD 2:36 ACD 1:04

30. Charging initiated throughout the day dependant upon opportunity and need

31. Charge pattern highly variable across users dependant on personal circumstances and habits

32. Using data from conventional (petrol & diesel car) trips, we see that EV’s maximum range can cover over 98% of typical user daily trips EV Range National Transport Survey 2005

33. User perceptions altered by exposure to EV trial. Often counter intuitive. Range anxiety significantly reduced (down from 100% to <20% in three months) Primary concerns shifted to cost and convenience (residual value/battery life) Self directed adjustments in driving behaviors, such as use of heater/AC ‘Green’ interests do not translate into behaviors - Key behavioral changes in response to financial incentives Owners want to ‘own’ the vehicle, but willing to compromise on battery leasing. EV’s not for everyone – Some self-selection present in the trial users (expensive lease, early adopters, off-street parking requirement, typically second car, etc.)

34. Congestion zones and other legislative incentives have had largest effect on technology adoption rates London congestion zone has influenced purchase of new vehicles and use of public transport Plans for expanded and additional congestion zone in other regions are well advanced

35. UK Plugged-in-Places charging infrastructure programs 8,500 Plugged-in-Places public charging points being installed – Reduced from 12,000 based on London trial Government very focused on private sector funding carrying the investment burden going forward

36. Stratified approach to charging infrastructure placement – Example London 2015 Source: Transport for London

37. Personal travel patterns likely to be more significant factor in transport choices in future Rural Transport Mode: FullHEV & FCV City City Inter-City Transport Mode: FCV & public City Sub-Urban Transport Mode: MildHEV & BEV Urban Transport Mode: BEV & public

38. Future personal transport choices likely to be determined by evaluation of specific personal lifestyle needs, rather than adopting a flexible solution, such as an ICE vehicle Source: Bironi-Bird 2010 location Application Range

39. Ultra low carbon technologies are often subject to aggressive adoption projections New Car Sales (Not Vehicle Parc) Prius hybrid sales still account for <5% of Toyota sales after nearly 15 years on the market Despite UK government incentives, EV sales less than 10% of targets (680EV’s Jan-Sept 2011 against 8,600 target for Jan 2012)

40. The journey to large scale take-up of BEV’s is probably longer than we anticipated, has some twists and turns along the way. There is more than one possible road to our destination, but we are heading in the right direction and will get there soon…..

41. Questions