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Emilio F. Moran Indiana University

Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The challenge for LBA. Emilio F. Moran Indiana University. What are “human dimensions”?. NOT JUST ANTHROPOLOGY, OR GEOGRAPHY OR SOCIOLOGY OR ECONOMICS OR

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Emilio F. Moran Indiana University

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  1. Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA_____________Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The challenge for LBA Emilio F. Moran Indiana University

  2. What are “human dimensions”? NOT JUST ANTHROPOLOGY, OR GEOGRAPHY OR SOCIOLOGY OR ECONOMICS OR “SOCIAL SCIENCES”

  3. Human dimensions is a way of thinking about how we do the science: caring to know what civil society thinks, what are their priorities, what do they do, what do they want to know? In short, how do people impact the environment, and how does the environment impact people

  4. What are the reciprocal relations between people and the environment?

  5. One of the biggest obstacles we face is the traditional division of labor in doing science, where there is a lack of understanding between the natural and the social sciences —we need to move towards defining the research questions together so they constitute integrative questions about human-environment interactions

  6. For example, we can begin to examine how a change in the price of a commodity (e.g. cacao) in the world market affects the behavior of farmers (how long before farmers begin to increase area planted), and how this shift in land use affects biogeochemical fluxes (is the shift from forest to cacao, from pasture to cacao, from secondary forest to cacao), and how long after prices collapse do farmers shift away from it, and those impacts on the physical system and household income.

  7. We need to recognize that to do human dimensions, we need to incorporate what matters to people into what we examine scientifically, and that we need to think how to transfer knowledge to society, knowledge they can use

  8. We need to ask integrated questions and to invest in getting integrative answers. For example we currently have the capability to observe the earth every few days, daily with some satellites…. And even with this knowledge we have trouble capturing what is happening

  9. 1970 Área de colonização lotes

  10. 1973 Área de colonização lotes

  11. 1976 Área de colonização lotes

  12. 1979 Área de colonização lotes

  13. 1985 Área de colonização lotes

  14. 1988 Área de colonização lotes

  15. 1991 Área de colonização lotes

  16. 1996 Área de colonização lotes

  17. Now, just think about the problem of having an observation of the human population in each country only every ten years, through the demographic census…. How do we link daily observations to decadal observations? How do we link natural and social sciences?

  18. Putting the parts together • We need to sit together with a real interest in surpassing our disciplinary biases, • adding respect for the way others think • try to link data • critically deal with how to sample and how to measure • how to deal with the whole rather than only with the parts– • this will require humility, learning a lot of different ways to get at a problem, and to jointly choose the best approach for the question asked. • Actually working together in the field in one of the best ways…

  19. Grandes Desafios das Ciencias Ambientais(NRC) • 200 temas foram considerados • 8 desafios foram seleccionados • 4 deles para acao imediata • Sine qua non de cada desafio: integracao das ciencias sociais e naturais

  20. Os 8 Desafios • Ciclos biogeoquimicos • Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamento do Ecossistema • Variabilidade Climatica • Sistemas Hidrologicos • Doencas Infecciosas e meio ambiente • Instituicoes e Uso de Recursos • Dinamica do Uso da Terra • Innovacoes no uso de materiais

  21. 4 desafios: Acao imediata • #1 • Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamente dos Ecossistemas Atividades: Desenho e manejo de habitats que possam suportar uso pela biota nativa e uso humano; Impacto da perda da diversidade para a sociedade e os servicos do ecossistema

  22. #2 Previsao dos Sistemas Hidrologicos: Atividades: estudo das consequencias das mudancas nos regimes hidrologicos; estudos das atividades que afetam os sistemas aquaticos

  23. #3 • Doencas Infecciosas e Meio Ambiente Atividades: estudos sinteticos e evolutivos das doencas infecciosas que afetam saude humana, e da flora e fauna; desenvolvimento de uma nova area interdisciplinar com enfoque nos efeitos das interacoes ecologicas sobre a selecao de agentes patogenicos e sua virulencia.

  24. # 4 • Dynamica do Uso da Terra Atividades: estudos espacialmente explicitos sobre as mudancas no uso da terra e na cobertura terrestre, as consequencias destas mudancas. Novas formas de simulacao dinamica e espacial.

  25. Avancando na area de dimensoes humanas Estudos a nivel regional Papel de Centros de Pesquisa Integrada Crescer o treinamento em pesquisa interdisciplinar Da disciplinaridade para a pesquisa integrada e interdisciplinar Garantindo que a Ciencia beneficia os varios setores da sociedade, e nao so um

  26. SCIENCE PLANNING for the new Global Land ProjectIGBP and IHDP CO-CHAIRS: Dennis Ojima Emilio Moran

  27. The Global LAND Project Co-chairs: Emilio Moran and Dennis Ojima

  28. HERITAGE OF LAND GCTE AND LUCC

  29. Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems Changing Biodiversity and its Consequences on Ecosystem Functioning GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org] Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks

  30. Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) • Focus one: Comparative Case Studies • Focus 2:Observations of Land Use/Cover • Change • Focus 3: Integrative Assessment • and Modeling

  31. INSTITUTIONS • (formal and informal) • POLICY • (Incentives, • Conservation, • Land tenure) • Culture • (Perception, values, • Ethics) • ECONOMY • (valuation, cost-benefit) • DEMOGRAPHY • (Number, gender, • Consumption, age) • BioGeochemistry • (soil fertility, • OM levels, • Fluxes) • BioDiversity • (Species, • community, • Landscape, • Genetic, • Functional) • BioPhysics • (albedo, • Energy exchange, • Structure) GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LUCC GCTE LAND USE

  32. Origins • IGBP I , IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS • GCTE, LUCC, BAHC, IGAC and PAGES, and contributions of many more • “Terrestrial Futures” meeting • Assessment Community (e.g., IPCC, MEA, etc.)

  33. OBJETIVO doGlobal Land Project IDENTIFICAR, E AVALIAR AS MUDANCAS NO SISTEMA HUMANO-AMBIENTAL E OS THRESHOLDS DE VULNERABILIDADE EM VARIAS ESCALAS: LOCAL, REGIONAL E GLOBAL

  34. Goods and Services Drivers and Dynamics Vulnerabilidade Thematic approaches:

  35. Tema 1: Drivers and Dynamics(Exemplos de Atividades) • Mudancas no ciclo de Nitrogenio • Interacoes entre as mudancas climaticas e as mudancas criadas pela populacao humana • Mudancas no uso da terra e o resultado em movimentos de gases, aerosoles, e sedimentos • Mudancas na frequencia e magnitude de fogo com as mudancas globais • Mudancas historicas no estoques de carbono

  36. Tema 2: Goods and Services(Exemplos de Atividades) • Impacto e feedbacks da agricultura • Multiple Estresses multiples e a capacidade e resiliencia dos sistemas terrestres em estocar o carbono • Como os sistemas biofisicos e humanos interagem para afetar a vulnerabilidade dos sistemas complexos?

  37. Tema 3: Vulnerabilidade(Exemplos de Atividades) • As diferencas em escala das vulnerabilidades dos sistemas naturais e humanos • Dinamicas da paisagem urbano • Mudancas na distribuicao da biodiversidade em sistemas dominados pela acao humana e as consequencias para a vulnerabilidade destes sistemas

  38. The Earth System T1.1 T2.4 T1.3 Coupled Land System • Environment Sub-System [Ecosystem] • BGC • Biodiversity • Biophysical properties • Water • Soils • NPP and Yields • Pest and Diseases • Pollinators • Herbivores • Human Sub-System • Agent heterogeneity • Institutions • Markets & infrastructure • Population • Culture and knowledge systems • Environmental histories • Technology T2.3 T1.2 Land Use & Management Disturbance T2.1 Decision making Ecosystem Services T2.2 Integrative Analysis and Modeling T3.1 Emergent Properties & Thresholds T3.2 Vulnerability-Sustainability T3.3 Effective governance T3.4 Data and models T1: Causes and Nature of Land System Change T2: Consequences of Land System Change T3: Integrative Analysis and Modeling

  39. extensive intensive Intended high food production Unintended water and air pollution, biodiversity loss protected urban Intended nature conservation, recreation Unintended changed fire regime Trade-offs in multi-use landscapes • Trade-offs • within individual land use types • spatial arrangement and connections • across land use types • spatial and temporal scales Regional trade-offs Global and regional context

  40. Effects of climate-induced land cover change on surface properties of transition zones Foley et al. 2003

  41. Spread of Population Over Indiana 1810-1880

  42. Landcover has Changed from Primarily Forest to Primarily Agriculture Forest Wetland Prairie Water Row Crop Pasture/Grassland Urban Landcover Circa 1820 (Lindsey) Landcover 1992 (Indiana GAP Analysis)

  43. Indiana has Experienced Massive Deforestation in the 1800s Followed by Reforestation in this Century Primary Forest Secondary Forest

  44. IHDP Global Change and Human Security Core Project

  45. Aids is not just a direct killer but a major contributor to famine, according to aid agencies. Some countries are expected to lose a quarter of their agricultural workforce to Aids by 2020. Early deaths deprive new generations of vital knowledge about farming methods, while food consumption in families hit by HIV/Aids drops by up to 40%.

  46. O impacto da globalizacao economica • Perda da autonomia das pessoas, no primeiro e no terceiro mundo • Acordos mercantis regionais resultam na imposicao de estrategias que danificam o ambiente • Esforcos dos cidadaos limitados a escolher entre alternativas parecidas, e nao questionar o conceito mesmo • Nao e facil questionar o processo

  47. Interstate 69 “The NAFTA Corridor”

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