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Apple outlook 2011

Apple outlook 2011. Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA ) Freshfel Europe. World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA).

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Apple outlook 2011

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  1. Apple outlook 2011 Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA ) Freshfel Europe

  2. World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA) • WAPA ( 2001 ) = world umbrella organisation for the apple and pear producing countries = global forum of discussion for issues affecting apple and pear production and trading • Incorporating the 18 leading apple and pear producing countries around the world both in the Northern Hemisphere (Europe + USA) and Southern Hemisphere • Governance : rotating presidency and secretariat • President: Kevin Moffitt (USA) • Vice-President: Peter Beaven (New Zealand) • Immediate Past President: Alessandro Dalpiaz (Italy) • Brussels based secretariat

  3. WAPA :mission & achievements • Improve transparency by facilitating exchange of information on production and trade of apple & pear • Platform for dissemination of sound science relating to apples and pears ( nutrition ,health benefit , organoleptic,... ) • Facilitate internationally the market position of apples and pears by exchanging best practice on promotion/communication • www.wapa-association.org

  4. APPLE MARKET Review 2010/2011

  5. Market Review 2010/2011 • Prognosfruit forecast • 35 th edition • cooperation with 21 organizations & WAPA-AMI support • August forecast + update in September & December • August Y+1 = consolidation/validation => great accuracy of figures ( 1% variation ) • 2010 : one of the lowest apple crop of the decade at 9.6 Mln T, combined with the lowest pear crop ( 2.2 Mln T )

  6. Market Review 2010/2011 • Main parameters of the season ( volume ) : • Late start • No NH stock nor SH overlap • Increasing demand in Eastern Europe ( low crop in Poland ) and strong demand in Russia ( total import = 1.2 Mln T) • Small imports volume from SH in the EU( ca 570.000 T ) • Supply balance => lower fresh consumption at 18.1 kg/capita Source : AMI

  7. Market Review 2010/2011 • Main parameters ( price ) • Lower fresh consumption level but higher price for fresh markets => from average €1.28/kg to € 1.35/kg • Price for apple juice concentrate recovering sharply Source : AMI Source : Agrana

  8. OUTLOOK 2011 : eu-27 and othereuropean countries

  9. 2011 crop forecast :EU-27 • 10.195.000 T => 10.392.000 T ? ( PL, IT, UK,...=+; BE= -) • Cover 21 MS out of 27 • ranked 7th in the decade overview • +5% to last year, - 5% to 3Y average and -4% to10Y average

  10. 2011 crop forecast :EU-27 Poland back as n° 1 producing country

  11. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( production ) • Orchard & production • Stable in most of the countries ( ca 580.000 Ha for EU-27 ) • Some shift to most resistant varieties ( RO, SLO, … ) or grubbing up to be replaced by stonefruit ( North Spain ) or pears ( Benelux) • 2011 production split East 1% up ( PL recovery ) but expected higher volume move from West to East due to short production in HU,.. • Varieties : • Golden by far n°1 at 2.5 Mln T ( + 5%) • Peak crop for Cripps Pink ( 170.000 T) , Fuji ( 254.000 T) while Gala is gain over 1 Mln T • On-going growth of new varieties , including in particular club varieties ( Junami, Kanzi, Rubens,…) • Decline for Idared, Jonagold , Red Delicious , Morgendurf,..

  12. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( varieties )

  13. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( weather ) • Earlier crop in most of the regions • UK up to 3 weeks anticipation : Discovery and Windsor on shelf end of July • Other countries : 1 or 2 weeks • Italy : anticipation reduced • Climatic conditions • Overall good across Europe • Strong wind in PT • Significant frost damages early May in HU, CZ, RO and part of Germany. More limited impact in PL and • Low t° and rain in GR leading to low crop • Hail damages in North IT, BE => increased volume to processing Jonathan -21%

  14. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( quality ) • Quality : overall good • Warm spring , « cold » and rainy summer in North and West • Limited disease damages • Size : medium to large • Good coloring • Frost damage : mainly in Eastern part of Europe • Some damage due to hail ( part of Italy , France ,… => additional volume to processing ) • EU organic production up by almost 20% at 111.000 T

  15. 2011 crop forecast :Other European countries • Balkan : 560.000 T • Strong data improvements from Balkan region: Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia • Ukraine: • production is moving over 1 Mln T • development of Golden (+ 90.000 T) , RenetSymyrenko (+ 57.000 T) and Jonagold ( +50.000 T) • favourable conditions during blossom • some frost in Southern part with limited impact & some local hail • larger fruit size than usual & harvest date as usual • Turkey : • 2.4 Mln T – one of the largest production potential in European area • 87% for fresh domestic market consumption , 3% for fresh exports and 10 % for juice . Limited import .

  16. Europeanregion 2011 16.7 Mln T 0.1 0.2 2.3 0.7 1 1.9 1 1.6 0.7 2.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 2.4 0.2

  17. 2011 crop outlook :Tentative global balance • 2011 Southern Hemisphere supply (WAPA Berlin) 1% down at 5.2 Mln T • EU : + 5% at 10.1 Mln T • Other Europe : + 4% at 6.5 Mln T • North America : USA slightly up ( +2% ) Canada down ( - 6%) , Mexico significantly up by 20% • China : trends up again to 33 Mln T ? => Globally , world apple supply 2011 estimates could be up by 5% for surveyed countries ( =90% of world apple production )

  18. World apple production 65 Mln T + 16.7 33 5.5 2.5 1.7 5.2 In Mln T per region

  19. ? Marketoutlook 2011-2012

  20. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 :stocks • Almost cleared for fresh apples EU 1st July (less than 200.000 T) – USA : same USA • AJC :no stocks , strong start but EU East : low crop EU West : good quality and good size for fresh market

  21. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : international trade ( import ) • EU Import : 551 Mln € ( value 2010 ) • SH exported more in total ( 1.7 Mln T ) • but moderate volume to Europe 1 2

  22. Apples SHAFFE / WAPA pear production forecast Berlin February 2011 • Remarks: • Southern Hemisphere production is stable at 5.2 Mln T • Export planned to be up by 5% but export to Europe seems declining => market diversification

  23. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : international trade • EU Export : 558 Mln € ( value 2010 ) • Uncertainties : SPS , world economy , strenght of the € ….. • Russia : Safety certificates maintained for apples from BE, DE, EL ,FR, HU, IT, NL, PL • Market demand in North Africa : Algeria, Egypt ,… • SPS protocol negotiation

  24. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : domestic market Overall positive given moderate apples crop & perspective of 1 to 2 weeks more for marketing and good kick off condition (no stocks or SH overlap ) but : • Economic situation – affecting consumer confidence • EHEC crisis and image of fresh produce category • Stagnating apples consumption • Poor market conditions for several fresh produce across Europe (stonefruits , citrus , bananas …. ) • Heavy price competition and return to growers • More intra trade from West to East ( ?) – shortage in HU, CZ, RO, no bumper crop in PL -demand from AJC • Pear crop up- overall EU apple & pear +6%

  25. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : regulatory issue • Monitoring import licences • removed as of 1 September ( Com Regulation 669/2011) but • TAXUD and Eurostat data remaining available & SHAFFE monitoring is on-going • Morpholine (Regulation 1333/2008 ) • Not registered as additive in the EU => use is forbidden • On-going discussion for setting a cross contamination level ( at 0.3 ppm, ) • Status DPA • Being phased out unless new registration is requested ( Com Decision 2009/859 ) • MRL status unclear ( Com Regulation 149/2008) • Commission proposal to move to detection level but process of discussion and adoption is at least 9 months - consequences of persistant effect if detection level also for EU growers – non regulatory requirements to be taken into acount • Different MRL to be considered if new registration succeeds

  26. conclusion

  27. Key points 2011-2012 Mixed parameters but hopefully a positive outlook for 2011/2012 : • Positive elements for the season: • “Moderate low” crop • Early start on a clean background • Good quality and size for fresh market • Demand for the AJC industry • Negative elements for the season: • Complex fruit and vegetables markets • Market price and return to grower • Uncertainties about Russian market • Economic uncertainties • Stagnating consumption • Prognosfruit 2012 : 3-4 August 2012 in Toulouse ( France ) with www.prognosfruit.eu

  28. Thanks! www.wapa-association.org

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