Suffrage and Turnout

1. Suffrage and Turnout POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

2. Office Hours • When • Today 11-2 • Tuesday 11-2 • No Office Hours Friday • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Readings • Chapter 2: Suffrage and Turnout (Flanigan) • Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3.

5. What is suffrage? • The Right To Vote • Why we have expanded suffrage historically • For Good • For Gain!

6. Voting in a Comparative Perspective Some nations love to vote

8. Why so high elsewhere? • Compulsory voting • Fewer Elections • PR systems and MMD

9. Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA • Easier To Register • Enfranchisement of the South • A National two-party system • A better-educated population

10. Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of Participation

11. Some Say Many of Actually Do Vote • Voting Age Population- those who voted/those who are 18- we have too much Democracy! • Voting eligible population- those who voted/those who registered • There is a difference

14. Who Votes

15. Who votes in America?

16. Age and Voting • Older People vote more • Why • Curvilinear relationship!

17. Education and Voting • This is a linear relationship • Why do better educated people vote more • The lack of political skills

18. Education and Age in 2008

19. Income and Voting • Wealthy people vote at higher Rates • Recursive with education • Lower Information Costs

20. Campaign Interest • Linked to Education

21. Partisanship Strong Partisans more than independents

22. Voter Turnout in 2008 • 130 Million voted, 61% which was the highest rate since 1968 • Where was turnout up? • Best States • Worst States

23. People expected more Voters • Only slightly higher than 2004 • 18-29 year olds did not increase greatly • Why No increase?

24. What about the 50% that don’t vote Non voting

25. Why Americans Don’t Vote • Institutional Factors • Demographic Factors • Behavioral Factors

26. Why People Don’t Vote: Institutions

27. Registration • Registration is a large restriction on voting • States control this power • Once you register, you are more likely to vote

29. Other Institutional Barriers • Restrictions on suffrage • Electoral Competition

31. Demographics Why People Don’t Vote

32. Why Young People Don’t Vote • Are Unfamiliar with the system- • Are one step above Gypsies • Have less formal and political education

33. Classic Demographics • Race • Gender • Region

35. Low Turnout Because of Behavioral Factors

36. Low Social Capital • Writings of Robert Putnam • We are not connected to the community • As a Result, we don’t participate in politics

37. Low turnout because of partisanship • Fewer People Identify with one of the parties • Increasingly difficult to target voters • Partisan districts depress turnout

38. Mobilization and turnout in 2008 • Voter Contacts and support • The Long Campaign in 2008 advantaged Obama.

39. Campaign Contact

40. The Saw-tooth Pattern High and low stimulus elections

41. Presidential elections • Why Higher • What is the Result- the exciting saw-tooth pattern

43. Midyear Tends to be boring