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XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011

Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics Andrea Montani C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC Hydro MeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy. XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011.

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XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011

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  1. Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi-2014 Winter OlympicsAndrea MontaniC. Marsigli, T. PaccagnellaARPA-SIMCHydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011 A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  2. After Athens (Summer 2004) and Turin (Winter 2006), for the third time in a decade the Olympic Games being hosted by a COSMO-country. • Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi, Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014). • In the past occasions, the involvement of the full consortium was limited in terms of implementation/support of new modelling products. • As for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics, Roshydromet is organizing a blended RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) • A COSMO PP is needed in order to avoid duplication of work and to better coordinate COSMO activities within this RDP/FDP. Introduction A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  3. Some geography Sochi (RU) Rome (I) A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  4. Link with FDPs and RDPs FROST-2014Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed Detlev!!! Tiziana!!! Andrea!!! A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  5. COSMO vs FROST-2014 • COSMO will/could perform a number of activities related to FROST-2014: • deterministic forecasting (FDP/RDP initiatives), • probabilistic forecasting: • b1) FDP initiatives (“clone” of COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area), • b2) RDP initiatives(development of a convection-scale COSMO LAM-EPS for the Sochi area), • post-processing and product generation (FDP/RDP initiatives), • verification (FDP/RDP initiatives). A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  6. FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) initiatives SOCHMEL: SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system (“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS) Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km. Vertical resolution: 40 model levels. Forecast range: 72 hours. Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC. Ensemble size: 10 members. Boundary conditions: from selected ECMWF EPS members. Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members. Timetable Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter Trial: 2012/13 winter Olympics: 2014 winter. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  7. SOCHMEL suite @ ECMWF: present status 10 Representative Members driving the 10 COSMO-model integrations (weighted according to the cluster populations) employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch convection scheme (randomly choosen) + perturbations in turbulence scheme and in physical parameterisations As for the future, apply for an ECMWF time-critical application 3 levels 500 700 850 hPa 4 variables Z U V Q d d+1 d+2 d+3 Cluster Analysis and RM identification Cluster Analysis and RM identification ECMWF EPS 2 time steps clustering interval Black-Sea area Complete Linkage SOCHMEL clustering area • Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h; • initial time: 00UTC, 12UTC; • for the moment, computer time (10 million BU for 2012) provided by an ECMWF Special Project; • suite managed by ARPA-SIMC; • contributions from ECMWF member states could be needed in the future. SOCHMEL Integration Domain A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  8. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  9. RDP (Research and Development Project) initiatives SOCHMEL28: convective-scale ensemble system Horizontal resolution: 2.8 km. Vertical resolution: 50 model levels. Forecast range: 48 hours. Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC. Ensemble size: 5 members. Boundary conditions: from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems. Initial conditions: from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems. Data assimilation: ??? Provision of wind-gust forecasts using different algorithms. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  10. Important ingredients for a successful ensemble • Have a clear division between FDP and RDP activities / commitments. • Develop experience with probabilities by local forecasters. • Feedback on the top-priority products to be visualised. • Snow analysis and soil field initialisation. • Observations to assess the quality of the system in the development phase. • Computer time (Special Project at ECMWF may not be enough). • Timeliness in product delivery. • … A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  11. Deterministic modelling: • 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in the operational mode; what about support from the model developers? • Are there sufficient computer resources at RosHydroMet to run the 1-km model on a reasonable-size domain (but what is the reasonable domain size for Sochi)? • Downscaling from 7-km to 1 km can give rise to spin up problems at the early stage of the forecast. Doubts and open issues • Ensemble modelling: • Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!) • End-users “hate” probabilities. • Verification: • RosHydroMet can, most likely, provide the project partners with additional in-situ observations not normally available on the GTS. • Verification: methodology and observations (the same for all models!). A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  12. Thank you ! A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  13. Outline • Introduction to Sochi-2014: • What is it? • What has to do with COSMO? • COSMO ensemble activities within FROST-2014: • introduction to SOCHMEL (the SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system); • methodology; • phases of development; • planned activity. • Final remarks. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  14. COSMO-LEPS (developed at ARPA-SIMC) What is it? It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland). Why? It was developed to combine the advantages of global-model ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of high-impact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)  generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-impact weather in the short and early-medium range (up to fc+132h) A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

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