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Technology and National Security

Technology and National Security. What comes first? Strategy? Technology?. Eras?. 1789-1861: Consolidation 1865-1941: Potential Power 1945-1990: Global Power with A Rival 1990-2001: Unipolar Moment 2001– Rapid Spread of New Technologies Challenges by rival powers Middle powers

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Technology and National Security

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  1. Technology and National Security • What comes first? • Strategy? • Technology?

  2. Eras? • 1789-1861: Consolidation • 1865-1941: Potential Power • 1945-1990: Global Power with A Rival • 1990-2001: Unipolar Moment • 2001– Rapid Spread of New Technologies • Challenges by rival powers • Middle powers • Non-state actors

  3. Civilization Timeline (all dates estimations) Hunting-Gathering 195,000 – 10,000 BC Agricultural Revolution ~10,000 BC Industrial Revolution ~1750/60Computer Revolution 1930-40s, 1980s, 1995 You are here

  4. US Strategy to 1890s Total War: Richmond 1865

  5. 1890s: Naval Power Theodore Roosevelt Alfred Thayer Mahan (1858-1919) 1882 1st ed. (1840-1914) 1890 1st ed.

  6. The Rise of Airpower: 20th century Two Views • Airpower is a novelty • Airpower is decisive • GiulioDouhet (Italy) • William Mitchell (US)

  7. WW II Strategic BombingTotal War Tokyo May 9-10, 1945

  8. Dresden (1945)

  9. August 6, 1945 Hiroshima

  10. Is Strategy Over? Yes and No Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon,1946 Bernard Brodie, Strategy in the Missile Age, 1959

  11. Post- 1945US Objectives as a Global Power • Deter Rival Powers • Build Liberal-Democratic Order • Establish Stable Balance of Power • Prevent Direct Great Power Conflict, because…

  12. …the Great Powers can’t fight directly… The Dilemma of Strategy in the Nuclear Age

  13. The Goal: Power Projection The ability to use force around the world in pursuit of US political objectives

  14. Three Big Challenges • Fighting Challengers without Fighting Them Directly • Limited War, COIN (Cold War) • Creating and Stabilizing Allies • Stability Operations, COIN (Post-Cold war) • Leveraging Technology

  15. 1. Limited WarKorean War 1950-53: Conventional • Limited War • Goals • Weapons • Geography • Talk and Fight

  16. Limited WarVietnam War 1950s-1970s: COIN Unconventional or Guerrilla Warfare • Insurgency Goals and Tactics • Counterinsurgency

  17. 2. Creating and Stabilizing AlliesPost-2001 Stability Operations Afghanistan October 2001 (map is 2009) Iraq 2003

  18. Stability Operations Tasks

  19. Why Don’t We Just Leave? • ISIS

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