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Mr. Giuliano Grassi Secretary General , European Biomass Industry Association (EUBIA)

EU Biomass Industry : Targets & Directives from the EC, on R.E. Technology, Business Opportunities and Market Challenges. Mr. Giuliano Grassi Secretary General , European Biomass Industry Association (EUBIA). 27 April 2010 BIOMASS STAKEHOLDERS FORUM.

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Mr. Giuliano Grassi Secretary General , European Biomass Industry Association (EUBIA)

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  1. EU Biomass Industry: Targets & Directives from the EC, on R.E.Technology, Business Opportunities and Market Challenges Mr. Giuliano GrassiSecretaryGeneral, European Biomass IndustryAssociation (EUBIA) 27 April 2010 BIOMASS STAKEHOLDERS FORUM

  2. Biomass process technologies business technologies Context: • World wide interest for Biomass resources is now emerging because : • Its potential is considerable • Biomass is able to penetrate all energy sectorial markets, but economic constraints still limits its general deployment • Many benefits (socio, economic, environmental, diversification of energy supply, rural development etc…) related to possible modern large use of biomass has generated strong interest and support of political decision makers. • However is vital to : • 1- Promote efficient but sustainable bioenergy schemes • 2. Plan Large Investments

  3. Worldwide biomass resources • Worldwide biomass stock: ~ 370 B TOE/y • World biomass production:- Terrestrial: ~ 80 B TOE/y- Acquatic: ~ 20 B TOE/y • Estimation of world biomass potential (year 2100): - Biomass potential: ~ 6.6 B TOE/y - Ultimate future potential (max): ~ 28.3 B TOE/y • Total Energy consumption (2000):~ 9.9 B TOE/a • Total electricity consumption (2040): ~ 37000 TWh • Total nuclear energy supply in year 2000: 638 MTOE/y • in year 2020: 690 MTOE/y B TOE: Billion of Tonnes Oil Equivalent (1 TOE ~ 2,4 t dry biomass)

  4. European biomass resources • Current consumption (EU-15; 2001): • Primary energy: ~ 1486 M TOE/y- Biomass: ~ 57 M TOE/y (3.8%) • EU guideline regarding biomass use:- for 2010 ~ 135 M TOE/y- for 2020 ~ 220 M TOE/y • EEA (2030 estimated potential) ~ 300 MTO/y • Biomass potential (2050) - UE-15 ~ 500 M TOE/y - UE-27 ~ 600 M TOE/y M TOE: Million of Tonnes Oil Equivalent (1 TOE ~ 2,4 t dry biomass)

  5. Conflicts and lands for food / bioenergy production • From preliminary evaluations it seems that risk of conflicts for land use will arise in general only when the rate of contribution of bioenergy to the > 30% • Total worldwide cropland is in fact ~ 2 billion ha. Present utilization is ~ 750 mio ha, but should increase to ~ 1 050 billion ha (in year 2025) for the population increase, living thus 0.95 billion ha for potential bioenergy production (~ 5 billion TOE/y) based on present knowledge and practice. • However, modern molecular biotechnology could change this present limitations, modifying the metabolism of dedicated energy crops and increasing the photosynthetic efficiency of crops (rather modest now : 2-2.5 % for good crops : like sugar-cane, sweet-sorghum, etc …) • Use of most agriculture residues (~ 80% of total) should be promoted because emerging technology for its stabilization & modern use is now appearing on the market (agro-pellets)

  6. 120 105 100 2000 1950 80 60 37 40 28 20 17 20 10 6 5 3 4 0 North America South America Africa Asia Europe Water resources on the globe Water availability is an important constraint: (1kg of dry biomass requires 200-1,000 kg of water!) x 1000 cubic meter / person

  7. GLOBAL VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION 0.755 billion ha available for Energy-crops. Total desert area: ~ 1,800 million ha. Actual loss of agriculture land: about 12 million ha/year. Loss of Agriculture area for salted water irrigation:1/2 million ha/year. (700 million ha in coastal areas) 1.8 1.61 1.75 6.24 2.1 2,05 billion(3.2 with

  8. RES Electricity Targets

  9. Biofuels Targets

  10. Contribution of Renewables to Heat Production (1995-2020)

  11. Contribution of Renewables to Transport Fuel Production

  12. Contribution of RES to Primary Energy Production Eurostat Convention (Mtoe)

  13. EU-25 RE Contribution Year 2002 Biomass 65 MToe Hydro 25 MToe Wind 4 MToe Geothermal 4 MToe TOTAL 98 MToe/y White paper targets for EU-15 = 135 MTOE/y (in 2010) Adjusted paper targets for EU-25 = 150 MTOE/y (in 2010) Current Trend : 75-80 MTOE/y (in 2010) Biomass is lagging behind other RE with risk of missing the 2010 targets

  14. Renewable Energy Roadmap by the European Commission 20 % binding overall RES target for EU by 2020 20% of CO2 emission reduction 20% energy saving

  15. Targets:

  16. Present Emerging Economic Opportunities • Heat production • Cogeneration (decentralized production with green-certificate availability) • Cofiring (centralized production with CO2-credits) • Transport biofuels, in particular : • Bioethanol • Biodiesel • Biogas • (most of this activities benefit of economic support measures) • Bio hydrogen (industrial quality)

  17. Future Economic Opportunities for Bioenergy Assuming an import price for : • Oil = 70 $/bbl* • Natural Gas = 250 €/ 1.000 m3 (300 €/TOE) The level of competitiveness for biofuels is around : ~ 50 €/dryt (solid biomass) ~ 450 €/TOE (liquid biofuels for transport) * A price of ~ 100 $/bbl could become a reality around the year 2030

  18. World CO2 Emissions from different sectors (IEA). TOTAL 2005 = ~ 22 Bill ton CO2/y. 2010 = ~ 30 Bill ton CO2/y. 2020 = ~ 38 Bill ton CO2/y. 2030 = ~ 44 Bill ton CO2/y.

  19. Stationary Plants with high CO2 Emissions Cement Factories: ~ tCO2/tCement (i bill t cement/y). Steel Factories:~ 3tCO2 /tsteel (1.2 bill steel/y). Power Plants (coal): ~ 1kg CO2 / KWhe (18000 bill Kwhe/y). Oil Refineries: ~ 0.5 tCO2/t oil (3.5 bill t/y).

  20. Mitigation of CO2 Emissions • Efficiency Improvement: processing & use; • CO2 storage, but is an expensive solution : (i.e. 100% increase of electricity production in conventional coal power-plants~ 17% of electricity loss). (~ 300-400€/tCO2 avoided in transport). III.Deployment of R.E.; Solar-wind Hydro-Biomass. Modern Biomass will play a crytical rôle: already is providing a good contribution having increased its acquatic-terrestrial carbon sink (due to the CO2 fertilisation effects) reducing thus ,its accumulation level into the atmosphere from ~ 22 Bill ton/y to ~ 12 Bill t/y. In Future large-scale vegetation in marginal lands and surplus agric.lands for production & substitution of modern biofuels to fossil-fuels. NOTE: An area of ~ 400 million ha of land cultivated by well selected C-4 crops could be able to absorb the CO2 annual increase in the atmosphere .

  21. Thank you for your attention! Mr. Giuliano Grassi - Secretary General European Biomass Industry Association (EUBIA) EUBIA Rue d’Arlon, 63-65, B-1040 Brussels, Belgium eubia@eubia.org; www.eubia.org

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