1 / 16

Forecasting & Scenario Planning Insight SIG November 2010

“Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300 or 3 months in jail.” Criminal Code of New York c.1900. Forecasting & Scenario Planning Insight SIG November 2010. Panel Members. Julian Young RSPB Jon Kelly Wood for Trees

timothy-mendez
Download Presentation

Forecasting & Scenario Planning Insight SIG November 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. “Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300 or 3 months in jail.” Criminal Code of New York c.1900

  2. Forecasting & Scenario PlanningInsight SIG November 2010

  3. Panel Members Julian Young RSPB Jon Kelly Wood for Trees Kirsty Neal Breakthrough Breast Cancer Bob Francis Cancer Research UK

  4. Role of Insight Teams • Trading • Major Gifts • Community Fundraising • Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc Grant funding Legacies Regular giving, membership Gift Aid

  5. Forecasting Techniques • Micro • Statistical Analysis • Modelling Macro • Market sizing • External inputs

  6. Statistical Analysis • Descriptive Statistics • Time series analysis • Regression/Correlation • Breakeven analysis • Payback and other ROI techniques

  7. Modelling • Sales force composite • Delphi/Executive Panels • PAM - probability assessment method • PERT - programme evaluation and review techniques

  8. Market Sizing Sales Forecast = Market Size X Market Share

  9. External Inputs • Legacies • Legacy Foresight • TGI • Economic forecasts

  10. Seminar Questions First: a couple of hands up questions.

  11. Seminar Questions Is your team/dept: • Responsible for generating forecasts? or • Give help to business areas? or • Not involved in forecasting?

  12. Seminar Questions ContRole of Insight Teams • Trading • Major Gifts • Community Fundraising • Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc Grant funding Legacies Regular giving, membership Gift Aid

  13. Seminar Questions Cont What’s the difference between a forecast and a budget? A target? Are we and our colleagues clear?

  14. Seminar Questions Cont What do our colleagues expect in terms of accuracy of forecasts? And how do we manage expectations? What data do we need to be able to forecast accurately?

  15. Seminar Questions Cont What techniques have you found useful? How can technology help? Stats, modelling.

  16. Seminar Questions Cont What can/should the SIG do to further forecasting and modelling? What are your training needs?

More Related