Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change

1. Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change Tejal Kanitkar Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies TISS, Mumbai with modifications/additions by D.Raghunandan Delhi Science Forum/ All India Peoples Science Network

2. Paper presented at and incorporating recommendations of AIPSN Workshop on “Energy Mix for India 2035” Dec 2012 Work done in collaboration with Prabir Purkayastha (DSF) & T.Jayaraman (TISS)

3. Outline Rights based approach to development Defining the right to energy The energy-emissions linkage Carbon budgets – entitlements and actual realizable carbon space Energy within constraints of costs, emissions, and resources – Energy Model

4. Right to Energy • If energy is a pre-requisite for human development – not just economic development – while planning future development, one should also plan for some minimum energy per capita commensurate with human well-being • This per capita energy can of course be aggregated for each country • How to meet this minimum energy requirement subject to emission constraints is the key question for future energy and emissions trajectory

5. Development Indicators – Context for India India has a large development deficit that it needs to address

6. India: aggregate energy trends

7. Development vs. Constraints • Employment in agri. disproportionate to contribution to GDP • need planned growth in industry; growth of rural enterprises • significant infrastructure growth planned in next two decades • Concerns: environment, climate change  constraint on emissions •  constraint on fossil fuels • Also Constraints on: • availability and use of land and water • availability of mineral resources domestically • renewable energy potential • availability of finance • Understanding energy-economy-environment linkages crucial!

8. Energy as part of right to development development measured not just in GDP growth necessary to consider other parameters to capture development e.g. life expectancy, infant mortality, etc. Unfortunately, Energy Access not one of the 8 MDGs --- insufficient effort invested by civil society in this, now even Rio+20 come and gone!

9. HDI vs. Energy Consumption

10. Life Expectancy vs. Energy Consumption

11. Infant Mortality vs. Energy Consumption

12. Targets for Energy Use 2035 – (1) • India should target levels of human development comparable to mid-level developed countries • Portugal, the best amongst these – 4860 kWh/person • Informally also Govt projections • given current levels of technology, in BAU mode, this is perhaps reasonable – may change in the future • Effect of late development • High carbon energy – low cost • Low carbon energy – high cost • Need carbon space to achieve energy equity

13. Global Emissions • To limit temp. rise to 2 deg. C with 50% probability • 658 GtC from 1850 to 2050 • of which 332 GtC already emitted (50%) • What is left? • 326 GtC • For 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C • 207 GtC is left

14. Climate Change Mitigation and the Global Carbon Budget • The world has only 326 GtC more • Ambitious climate change deal a necessity • Equity should be at the focal point of any new deal that involves all countries • No acceptable schema yet • Distribution of remaining carbon budget (cumulative emissions) increasing or cutting according to ”fair shares” of per capita entitlements (TISS-DSF is one such Schema

15. Global Carbon Budget Schema • modeling shows 2 deg C achievable • A1 sharp cuts (no negative emissions, and allowing for 1970 cut-off year for historical emissions: huge concession) • interestingly single framework so dear to US, but still incorporating equity and CBDR&RC • large DCs (China, India, Brazil, SA etc 20 nations) must peak and then reduce on differential time-table • India peaks around 2035-40; 70-80 GtC budget

16. Entitlements for A1 and non-A1 countries based on 2000 population • These are entitlements not actual space • Negative emissions not possible • Even if Annex-I emit zero between 2010-2050, Non-Annex-I are left • with 326 GtC (112 GtC less than what they are owed)

17. Dividing the actual carbon space

18. Actual Space for India & Other Countries

19. Electricity Use Electricity Supply Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Needed to achieve Human Development Resource Constraints Emissions Constraints Cost Constraints Fuel Mix, Cost Implications, Various Scenarios can be studied

20. Example: Power Sector Current (2008) per capita electricity use in India is ~490 kWh/person/year Low levels of access, low reliability of supply Target: Portugal - 4,860 kWh/year; 4500 kWh/year used in model

21. Power Sector Baseline Snapshot - 2008

22. Projections for the Future

23. Energy Requirements • Right to development  Energy requirements

25. Average Plant Capacity Factors

27. Constraints on Supply - India

28. Cost Constraints Sources: TERI Energy Roadmap, NCAER-CGE

29. Power Plants – Existing vs. New Stock

30. Scenarios for 4 Carbon Budgets

31. Scenario –I for India

33. Impacts on Cost of Electricity

34. Financial Burden on India vs. USA

35. How much Energy do we actually need? • projections such as these usually account for energy efficiencies, some demand management • but in a sense, even if these are not BAU in energy terms, they are possibly BAU in terms of development pathways and paradigms • low-carbon development and tackling climate change in a sustained and sustainable manner will call for radical shifts in the things we do, the way we do things, in lifestyles --- with serious impact on energy use

36. Reducing Energy Requirement • 700 Mtoe reduction possible • power generation capacity could be reduced by 128 GW ( 2001 cap.) “National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007 • improve end-use efficiencies (300 Mtoe by 2031) • advanced coal, gas based generation tech’s. (122Mtoe) • increase renewables, nuclear (72 Mtoe) • increase efficiencies in transport (190 Mtoe)

37. Energy Efficiencies in Transport • energy use projected to increase >10 times to 460 Mtoe by 2031 • most reduction through normal tech. upgradation • road-to-rail modal shift for freight and passenger • private to public transport shift “National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007

38. Evolving Mexico offer!

42. Energy target in Low Carbon Pathway • if India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of an equitable global deal… • ---and adopts low-C development pathways • reduce coal use from 60-66% to 40%?

43. Towards a Low Carbon Pathway • promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not just as “trickle down” supposition • demand: “electricity for all” and “equitable access to modern cooking energy” • so some sectors of economy and sections of society consume less, so others can get more • address urbanization: rapid urbanization is much spoken about, but why is it valorized? Some data suggests 40% more emissions! • 50% rural pop. even in 2050!! Should we not build on this? • new production-distribution patterns

44. Thank you