1 / 23

General Session - The Big One

General Session - The Big One. Robert J. Curry, FCAS Insurance Services Office. The Big One. Historical Hurricane Activity What’s Changed Hurricane -- What Ifs Historical EQ Activity EQ -- What ifs Mitigation http://www.iso.com/hurricane_experience/index.html.

tocho
Download Presentation

General Session - The Big One

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. General Session - The Big One Robert J. Curry, FCAS Insurance Services Office

  2. The Big One • Historical Hurricane Activity • What’s Changed • Hurricane -- What Ifs • Historical EQ Activity • EQ -- What ifs • Mitigation http://www.iso.com/hurricane_experience/index.html

  3. HURRICANE HISTORYLONG-TERM FREQUENCY OF HURRICANES Ten year moving average

  4. Largest Insured Hurricanes 1949-1999 Reported RankYear NameLosses ($B) 1 1992 Andrew 15.5 2 1989 Hugo 4.2 3 1998 Georges 3 4 1995 Opal 2.1 5 1999 Floyd 2 Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services

  5. What has changed? • Population Growth

  6. Growth In Population Density

  7. What has changed? • Population Growth • Inflation • Amount of Property per person

  8. Amount of Property per person • Size of new home has increased • 1645 square feet in 1975 • 2190 square feet in 1998 • % of homes with 4 + bedrooms • 21% in 1975 • 33% in 1998 • % of homes with 2 1/2 or more baths • 20% in 1975 • 52% in 1998 source: US Department of census

  9. Largest Insured Hurricanes 1949-1999 Adjusted RankYear NameLosses ($B) 1 1992 Andrew 22.9 2 1965 Betsy 7.4 3 1989 Hugo 7.4 4 1970 Cecelia 4.2 5 1998 Georges 3.1

  10. Hurricane -What Ifs • Hurricane Bret • Hurricane Gloria • Hurricane Andrew

  11. Hurricane Bret • In 1999 made landfall south of Corpus Christi • $30 million in damage • Made landfall in Galveston, Texas today? • Potential Modeled Losses => $11.6 Billion Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

  12. Hurricane Gloria • In 1985 passed over Cape Hatteras, NC as a Cat 3 & made landfall in Long Island as Cat 2. • $400 million reported; $850 million adjusted • Made landfall in Long Island, NY as a Cat 4 today? • Potential Modeled Losses => $25 Billion Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc. Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

  13. What if Hurricane Gloria… • Made landfall in Brooklyn, NY as a Cat 4 today? • Potential Modeled Losses => $39 Billion Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

  14. Hurricane Andrew • What if storm like Andrew made landfall in downtown Miami today? • Potential Modeled Losses => $50 Billion Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

  15. Largest Insured Loss EQs since 1940 Reported RankYear NameLosses ($B) 1 1994 Northridge 12.9 2 1989 Loma Prieta 1.2 Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services

  16. Earthquakes - What Ifs • 1886 Charleston, SC • 1906 San Francisco • 1811-12 New Madrid

  17. 1886 Charleston EQ • M7.3 in Charleston SC • MMI 10 • Estimated insured damage if happened today • $10 Billion Source: Risk Management Solutions

  18. 1906 San Francisco EQ • 1906 San Francisco EQ • M8.3 • Significant fire following damage • Estimated insured damage if happened today • $36 Billion Source: Risk Management Solutions

  19. 1811-12 New Madrid EQ • 1811-12 => series of 4 EQs over 7 week period • MMI 10+ • Estimated insured damage if happened today • $88 Billion Source: Risk Management Solutions

  20. Mitigation Efforts • BCEGS • Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule • Community graded based on • building code in force • enforcement of that code • Credits associated with better grade • 4,600 communities evaluated • approved in 48 states

  21. Good versus Bad Construction Practices - Hurricane Andrew

More Related