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NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010

NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010. Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center. Weatherbug Energy Conference Houston, Texas, April 15, 2010. Issues in the Spring-Summer Outlook. Temperature tools cooler in recent years,

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NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010

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  1. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010 Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Weatherbug Energy Conference Houston, Texas, April 15, 2010

  2. Issues in the Spring-Summer Outlook • Temperature tools cooler in recent years, • Trend toward warm in decline since late 2007, • El Nino likely to end around June, • “Spring Barrier” through mid-May = uncertainty, • Wet soils = cold early summer temperatures, • On-going cold decadal (PDO) event (weak) • Transition to Neutral or La Nina in summer?

  3. MJJ Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)

  4. JJA Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)

  5. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 April 2010 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010, with a return to ENSO-neutral by summer 2010.

  6. Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)

  7. Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)

  8. Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)

  9. Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)

  10. Summary • El Nino likely to end in June • Wet soil, cold trends lead to cooler forecasts • PDO, possible weak La Nina wild cards • CPC forecast skill has gone up (CON)

  11. Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Precipitation Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast.% coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right. Official (OFF) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) 19 2 MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) 4 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) 4 Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004 +8% +18% +20% +16% 13 ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) 17 NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) 12 NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) 9 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) 0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Precipitation Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean sn from 9 to 12, and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter.

  12. Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Temperature Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast.% coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right. Official (OFF) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) 23 22 16 37 Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004 +40% +55% +11% +31% ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) 25 33 23 33 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) 0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Temperature Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean sn from 18 to 24, and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter.

  13. CONUS Spatial Average, 48-Month Running Mean of area covered ,sn, sa, sn-sa 1995-2005 compared with post-2005, Temperature CONSOLIDATION IMPLEMENTED n/T sd = 34 sd = 38 sn 31 27 Fraction x 100 sa 12 11 sa sn sn-sa n/T

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