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TRIBAN Workshop Tomorrow’s Residential Infrastructure for Broadband And Narrowband Techno-Economic Evaluation of Broadband Radio Access Solutions. Valter Benedetto E-Mail: valter.benedetto@cselt.it. Outline. EURESCOM framework Techno-economic analysis Objectives Methodology
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TRIBAN WorkshopTomorrow’s Residential Infrastructure for Broadband And NarrowbandTechno-Economic Evaluation of Broadband Radio Access Solutions Valter Benedetto E-Mail: valter.benedetto@cselt.it
Outline • EURESCOM framework • Techno-economic analysis • Objectives • Methodology • P614 basic assumptions • Investment analysis • Sensitivity analysis • Conclusions
EURESCOM Framework • EURESCOM is the Institute for Research and Strategic Studies in Telecommunications • EURESCOM Projects related to the access network • Pre-studies (1992) • P306 “Access network evolution and preparation for implementation” (1993-1994) • P413 T2 “Optical networking in the local loop” (1994-1996) • P614 “Implementation strategies for advanced access networks” (1996-1998) • P614/PIR 6.3: Techno-economic evaluation of broadband radio access solutions
Techno-Economic Analysis - Objectives • Objectives • Analyse and compare different scenarios and network architecture solutions • Means • Cost evaluation • Investment • OAM costs • Depreciation • Revenue estimation • Analysis of critical parameters and evaluation of their influence on the economic results • Risk analysis
Techno-Economic Analysis - Methodology Scenario definition Technical features Services Cost Data Base Economic Results Volumes Calculation Economic Calculation Performance
Scenario Definition • Service scenario definition • Network architecture definition • Network design • Network evolution strategy • Miscellaneous parameters
Service Scenario Definition • Selection of services to be supplied • Penetration curves for each service • SSB/ASB ratio definition • Return channel bit rate for ASB services • Envisaged traffic • Annual revenue • Taxes
BASE STATION CENTRAL STATION ISDN / PSTN Local Exchange BASE STATION Deployment Scenario
Network Architecture Definition • Depends on: • Radio equipment features • Services to be supplied • Structure of the feeder network • Aims at the definition of the network components required for the desired scenario • Radio (BS and TS) • Interfaces (NNI, UNI) • Feeder link • Etc.
Radio Network Design • Coverage structure definition • Trade-off between available spectrum and required capacity • Definition of radio resource allocation strategies • Estimation of the maximum achievable radio range • Verification of availability objectives • Minimization of infrastructure and equipment volumes • Estimation of passed customer percentage
Volumes - affecting parameters V1 Capacity per Equipment Network Elements V4 V2 Spectrum Availability V3 V5 Service Penetration Required Traffic Capacity Supplied Capacity Network Parameters P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Maximum Radio Range Passed Customers % Services S1 S2 S3 Equipment and Infrastructure Volume Calculation
INFR. P-P Cost Component Data Base LMDS P-M P Cost Component Data Base • Price evolution • Type of component • Depreciation period • MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) • MTTR (Mean Time To Repair) • Maintenance class
Scenario Description Tariffs Orography User Density Availability Objectives Service Definition Network Evolution System Features Spectrum Availability Network Architecture Equipment Volumes Infrastructures Volumes OAM Revenues Investment Costs Financial Indexes Taxes Depreciation VAN TIR Payback ROI Cash flow Inv/User ... Economic Calculation
P614 Basic Assumptions - Service Scenario • Deployment Area • Downtown • Urban • Suburban • Rural • Services • 2 Mbit/s SSB/ASB • 8 Mbit/s SSB/ASB • 26 Mbit/s SSB/ASB • SSB/ASB ratio • 80/20 Downtown • 30/70 Urban • 20/80 Suburban • 20/80 Rural • Return channel for ASB • 64 kbit/s for 2 Mbit/s • 128 kbit/s for 8 Mbit/s • 2 Mbit/s for 26 Mbit/s
P614 Basic Assumptions Network Architecture • Deployed systems • LMDS: downtown and urban areas • Symmetric P-MP: suburban and rural areas • P-P DRRS • Frequency bands • LMDS: 40 GHz • Symmetric P-MP: 10.5 GHz • P-P DRRS: 38 GHz • Spectrum availability • LMDS: 400 MHz downstream and 80 MHz upstream • P-MP: 56 MHz for both downstream and upstream • Supplied capacity • LMDS: 46 Mbit/s downstream and 2 Mbit/s upstream • Symmetric P-MP: 10 Mbit/s both for downstream and upstream
P614 Basic Assumptions Radio Network Design • Selection of two coverage structures • C/I estimation • Evaluation of power threshold degradation • Calculation of the maximum radio range with 99.97% availability
P614 Basic Assumptions Radio Network Evolution • Aims at the definition of the time evolution of the radio network during the study period • Two strategies have been selected • Four frequencies strategy • Two frequencies strategy • Objective: investigate the impact on the investment
Investment Analysis • Cumulated and net investment for each year • Investment per user for each year • Investment breakdown for class of components • Line cost breakdown • Analysis with reduced set of services • Comparison between the selected network upgrading strategies
LMDS Systems - Investment Breakdown for Class of Components Downtown Urban
LMDS Systems - Line Cost Breakdown Downtown Urban
LMDS Systems - Investment per User with Reduced Set of Services Downtown Urban
LMDS Systems - Comparison between Network Upgrading Strategy
P-MP Systems - Investment per User with Reduced Set of Services
Summary of the Investment Analysis • Downtown area • Average cost per line: 4500 EURO with LMDS & P-P • Average cost per line: 1600 EURO with LMDS only • Urban area: • Average cost per line: 2400 EURO with LMDS & P-P • Average cost per line: 1300 EURO with LMDS only • Suburban and rural area • Average cost per line: 4500 EURO with P-MP & P-P • Average cost per line: 3000 EURO with LMDS only
Sensitivity Analysis • Sensitivity of the economic results to network parameters • Simultaneous analysis of different scenarios • Sensitivity of economic results to: • Financial parameters (taxes, …) • Service parameters (penetration, revenue, …) • Cost components (price, maintenance, operation, ...) • Network parameters (spectrum, traffic, ...) • Useful to find out the critical network parameters
LMDS Systems - Sensitivity Analysis Downtown Urban
Conclusions • A methodology for carrying out technical and economic analysis of radio access network has been described • The definition of the service/network scenario requires an accurate design and dimensioning of the radio network • Investment analysis has pointed out the relationship between cost per line and the scenario • Equipment cost uncertainty can be handled by means of sensitivity analysis • Equipment cost reduction is required for radio to provide very competitive solutions for broadband services. The definition of an emerging standard may speed up this trend