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TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW

TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW. Michael A. Einhorn, Ph.D. Affiliate Center for U.S. Ukrainian Relations meinhornphd@yahoo.com. UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. Software and Outsourcing Academic Science Mining and Metals Agriculture Energy. HISTORICAL MODELS FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION.

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TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW

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  1. TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW Michael A. Einhorn, Ph.D. Affiliate Center for U.S. Ukrainian Relations meinhornphd@yahoo.com

  2. UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • Software and Outsourcing • Academic Science • Mining and Metals • Agriculture • Energy

  3. HISTORICAL MODELS FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION • 1860: U. S. and Germany (growth in technology helped by academics and government) • Poland and Hungary follow • 1880-1960: Japan (imitation, management) • 1960-2010 Taiwan and South Korea (information technology) • 1990: India (software)

  4. STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH • market economies • Information technology • intellectual property • basic research funding • spillovers & synergies • academic and industrial clusters • first mover advantages • gains from imitation • network and cluster effects • user networks and declining costs • ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS

  5. KEY TRENDS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • MAINFRAME TO PC – information becomes more accessible. • MOORE’S LAW: chip speed double ever 18 months • MEMORIES improve • PRIVATE NETWORKS: data can be exchanged through software-defined channels. • INTERNET, INTRANET, AND WEB: open networks • CLOUD COMPUTING: move functionalities back into network through software and • CHEAP INFORMATION APPLIANCES: put software intelligence in network, off personal computer

  6. fiber optic packet switching storage Private and virtual private networks computer assisted design, manufacture, engineering world wide web cloud computing outsourcing joint ventures strategic alliances LDC development cyber-communities R&D consortia open source Open innovation INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

  7. outsourcing joint ventures strategic alliances consortium research cyber-communities open source open innovation outsourcing joint ventures strategic alliances LDC development cyber-communities R&D consortia open source Open innovation INFORMATION ARENAS

  8. CLOUD COMPUTING • Computing platforms in the network, not the edge • Network provides software-enabled virtual services • PCs need less or no software; they became cheaper and enable more connectivity • Less need for dedicated capital expenditures • Dynamically scalable • Providers: Sun, IBM, Amazon, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Vmware • Users: General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Vmware

  9. SOFTWARE NETWORKS IN BANGALORE • General Electric installed first dam in 1902 • Understood Indian competence in S&T • Established campus in Bangalore for engineering research • Developed outsourcing center: 22,000 • Call center, back office, software development, product design, R&D • Virtual plastics plant: Spain/India • 50% of GE’s software is now developed in India

  10. WHAT SOFTWARE ENABLES • Instant access to manufacturing process -- CAD, CAM, CAE • Process modularity, optimal location, and feedback • Wider connectivity, cyber-meshes, and team production • Cloud computing- information in network, not nodes • Interactivity, Virtual organization, and experimental science • Knowledge Emergence • Academic, government, & business interconnection

  11. OPEN RESEARCH & INNOVATION • Conducted in real or virtual research groups • Primary data and methodologies can be posted which can be added to/interpreted by any qualified collaborators. • Virtual scientific experiments are possible • Knowledge emerges and end-products arise from many contributions distributed throughout the network. • Can be preferred to proprietary research if positive network effects arise from collaboration

  12. ACADEMIC SCIENCE • Academics share ideas: German metals, U.S. agriculture • Industry partnerships; government roundtables • Academic goes commercial: U.S. Biotechnology • Spillovers and local economy effects: Stanford, MIT • National competitive advantage: Japan, Korea, Taiwan

  13. VIRTUAL ORGANIZATIONS • A virtual organization is one whose members are geographically apart, usually working by computer e-mail and groupware while appearing to others to be a single, unified organization with a real physical location. • VIRTUAL CORPORATIONS outsource the majority of functions • VIRTUAL BUSINESSES operate without a corresponding physical identity and transact entirely via the Internet • VIRTUAL ENTERPRISES share resources to achieve their goals

  14. CLUSTERS & CRITICAL MASSES • Factor endowment or academic/research geographic core • Increase cost-economies and process productivities through relationships, scale/scope efficiencies and network effects • Extend core competencies through learning-by-doing and information-sharing • Educated labor pool and social relationships • Create innovations, spin-offs, and economic zones • Foreign investors, partners, joint ventures, strategic alliances

  15. HI-TECH CLUSTERS • Computer U.S.: Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin, Research Triangle, Seattle, Albany • Pharma and Biotech: New Jersey, New Mexico, Research Triangle, Leiden, Switzerland, • Europe: Delft, Eindhoven, Oeiras, Heidelberg, Stockholm (telecom), Hilversum (multimedia), Toulouse (aerospace), Grenoble (micro-technologies), Cambridge (biotech), Tuttlingen (surgical instruments)

  16. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT • system of agents and technologies involved in transform raw materials and components into deliverable product • production links include extraction, component construction, assembly, merging, transportation, storage, & distribution. • optimization balances sourcing, distribution capacity, inventory costs, and T&D. • global supply chains: Ford, Intel, Apple, Boeing • manufacture parts, not products • nations develop and specialize in core competencies.

  17. UKRAINIAN SOFTWARE AND OUTSOURCING • . • Termed most attractive and fastest growing outsourcing destination in East. Europe by GoalEurope.com. • Market size $246 million in 2006, up 47% from previous year . • 30,000 IT graduates per year • Of the 70 companies interviewed, seven employed 300+ people whilst 21 had 100+. • Economically competitive with EU • Poland and other EU members now seek qualified IT resources in Ukraine. • Germany employs 6% of all outsourcing resources in Ukraine. • Big firms: Siemens, Phillips, Alcatel, Flextronics, HP

  18. VIRTUAL DESIGN IN UKRAINE • planes, ships, trucks buses, cars, trains • computer and electronic equipment, • precision instruments • agricultural machines and sugar refining, • TV and radiosets, • chemicals and textiles • OUTSOURCING, DIFFUSION, & GLOBALIZATION

  19. UKRAINIAN METALS • 25% of industrial output and 40% of goods exports • vast deposits of iron/manganese ores and bauxite • coking coal and non-metallic materials – limestone, molding sand, and refractory clay. • gold, titanium, potassium, magnesium, table salt, sulfur • dense transport network = efficient delivery of raw materials and goods to the plants. • reliable workforce training • machine building industry and other industrial buyers • superconducting materials, hard alloys, and pure metals • export goods and ideas ? • import Western/Japanese/Chinese technology ?

  20. UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE • Wheat harvesting and sugar refining • Ukrainian research labs (e.g., soil at Lviv & Odessa) • American land grant universities • Pollution, toxicity, and pest control • fertilizer production • water use and dams • farm machinery (metals) • plant genetics and new products

  21. UKRAINIAN ENERGY • oil substitutes: coal, shale, hydro electric • safe nuclear • alternatives: wind, thermal waters, safe nuclear • superconductivity • smart (software modulated) grids • Improved metallurgy

  22. SMART ELECTRICITY GRIDS • dispatch/routing: automatic efficient self-healing • programmable and controllable appliances • metering, real time pricing, load shedding • can integrate power and telecom channels • now receives 50%+ of venture K in U.S. cleantech sector • smart devices/integration: Cisco/Google • wide area: Smart Grids Technology in Europe • local: Austin (TX), Ontario, Telegestore (IT) • U.S 2009: $11 b of government aid

  23. ECONOMIC PRESCRIPTION • Extend advantages in ag & mining; move beyond commodity-based economy • Promote core competencies in STEM; develop educational and research bases and networks • Use IT to integrate core-specific technologies with global community • Develop local economic clusters in ag/mining/academic regions; outsource when possible to rural areas. • Produce parts and Integrate into global supply chains • Create accounting transparency; seek direct foreign investment • Promote exports in world markets; encourage domestic savings

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