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Late motorization and Status Quo of the Mexican Auto Industry: Prospects and tendencies

Late motorization and Status Quo of the Mexican Auto Industry: Prospects and tendencies. Alex Covarrubias V El Colegio de Sonora Center of Studies on North America. Objectives.

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Late motorization and Status Quo of the Mexican Auto Industry: Prospects and tendencies

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  1. Late motorization and Status Quo of the Mexican Auto Industry: Prospects and tendencies Alex Covarrubias V El Colegio de Sonora Center of StudiesonNorth America

  2. Objectives Define late motorization in terms of “tipping points” –contagious conditions that outline the present era of new mobilities, crisis & shift to a Second Automobile Revolution, and some its key ensuing transitions. Link automobility theory and Second Automobile Revolution’s premises to opening a new window to discuss contemporary changes in the auto-sector: Illustrate: The Mexican auto industry as a key case at point. Outline employment systems and labor relations implications, stressing unions challenges.

  3. Agenda Preliminary concepts Tipping Points - Starters (Going LDCs; Urban Planet; Going Back and Forth) - Consequential (a new geography of labor & wage relations) Conclusions

  4. I. Preliminary Concepts & Premises

  5. Themeaning of Late Motorization • LDCs’ arrival at mobility patterns, industrial and urban transitions brought about by their new position as the largest centers of production and consumption of private cars as Triad countries’ markets and environments exhaust. • LM means: a) The last/current evolutions of the AI; b) the likely last development of the AI as we know it; c) a number of critical points announcing the end of an era. • A critical scholar task: identify the “tipping points” & “starting conditions” (Gladwell, 2000).

  6. Themeaning of Late Motorization • LDCs turn into the last resource for CMCS + OIE + SC to survive • Entails social dilemmas; local & global conflicts assessing the cost of the AI & the CMCS • More than a Second Auto Revolution is underway. • It is in the making a new CMCS encompassing new connection, habitat & energy systems • It will be something “After the Car” • A critical scholar task: identify the “tipping points” & “starting conditions”

  7. Automobility/Sprawl city theories: • AI: The quintessential manufacture produced by the leading firms & sectors in the 20th Century/A labor relations pattern setter. • The major item of individual consumption (after housing?)/status provider/crime provider: theft, speeding, drunk driving, gender, etc. • A powerful mechanic complex linked to many industries: oil and energy; road-building; hotels, roadside service areas, dealers & repairs workshops, house building, suburbs, retailing and leisure complexes, marketing, urban design, etc.

  8. Automobility/Sprawl city theories: • The dominant mode of private-mobility/subordinating other modes and reorganizing people time and space for work, family, leisure & pleasure. • The dominant culture of what development means. • The single most important cause of resource depletion, greenhouse emissions & a leading cause of accidents, mortality and c&d diseases. • Sprawlcity as a keyprocessmodifyingtheurban/rural landscapes: expansion, fragmentation, resourcedepletion& densitydeclining.

  9. Grasping the key Dimensions of LM Evaluate and asses the T-Sides: Benefits + Costs -Economic from both sides –i.e., O & D - Social/Cultural - Environmental/Energy - Urban/QL - Labor/LS

  10. Starters/TippingPoints II

  11. Tipping Point 1 Going to LDCs

  12. Auto Output (1950-2012) Source: Covarrubias/Reyna. Data from Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (2012) y Ward'sAutomotive Group (2013).

  13. Global Auto Output DCs Vs LDCs Million Units DCs LDCs Source: SE: Mexico, 2012

  14. Global 2017 Forecats Auto output: 104 million Emergingmarketswillcontribute 83% to2010-2017 growth.

  15. Tipping Point 2 “The New Urban Planet”

  16. TheUrbanPlanet At theend of 1990s worldpopulationwasgrowingby 900 million per decade (a new London per month). At theend of XX centuryworldpopulationpassed 6 billion and willreachto 9.1by 2050. In May 23, 2007 ittook place the ‘transitionday’: theurbanworld´spopulationnumbered more thanhalf of the total (3.2 billion).

  17. & the UP will be ‘emergent’ By 2030 60% of theworldpopulationwill be urban (UN) Most of thegrowthis & will be in LDCsthrough a myriad of megacitieswithrising car fleets, accidents, air pollution, energyconsumption, & resourcedepletion. Fivemillion more peopleeverymonthlive in cities of LDCs (Glaeser, 2012).

  18. Indices de MotorizaciónProyecciones % de Crecimiento2010-2020 Motorization Index. Growth Projections % Source: Lizarraga M, 2006

  19. Tipping Point 3 Mexico on the rise/The Alluring of Mexico

  20. Mexico 2012 Output by OEM

  21. Key Features 8º producer after China, USA, Japan, Germany, Korea, India and Brazil. 4º major exporter after Germany, Japan & Korea 71% of exports go to NAFTA Contribute one fifth of manufacturing jobs

  22. Jobs Thousands PIB Billion Manufacturing Auto Auto Manufacturing

  23. Employment Dealers Parts & Components Auto Manuf

  24. Risingfromhell & Going South:Labor as a keydeterminant III

  25. Auto Industry. Employment Selected Categories

  26. North American Auto IndustrytoHell and Back

  27. : KLIER & RUBENSTEIN, 2012.

  28. Mexican Auto Industry From 2008 On New Engine, Transmissions and Center Facilities. Automotive Modeling Center, Mexicali Engine plant II Chihuahua Engine plant ‘Centenary’ in Derramadero New engine and transmission plant, Ramos Arizpe. Production of Nissan Micra, Aguscalientes Cactus project and a new transmission plant, San Luis Potosi New engine plant in Silao New Engine plant, Silao New transmission plant, Silao Redesigned Ford Fiesta in Cuautitlan Transmission plant Irapuato Test track for high temperature, Cupuan del Rio

  29. Mexican Auto Industry From 2008 On Finished Vehicles New Projets Hybrid Captiva SUV New Platform For a New Model , Ramos Arizpe Project CD3 Hybrid Fusion and Mercury 2010, Hermosillo Project CD4 Fusion MondeoConvergency 2013, Hermosillo Cactus Project T250-Aveo, San Luis Potosi Nissan Micra-March, Aguascalientes New Ford Fiesta In Cuautitlan Honda CR-V 'Crossover', El Salto Sub-Compact Fiat 500 Premium, Toluca Jetta 6th Generation "Special Bicentennial Edition.“, Puebla

  30. SOURCE : KLIER & RUBENSTEIN, 2012.

  31. IV A criticalconsequenceas relatedtippingpoint: - A new geography of labor & wagerelations

  32. Towards a global race to the bottom?Or towards a new map between high & low wages regions AIEmployment Relations

  33. V A differentpathforMexico Isitpossible a highroadstrategy?

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