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Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Fighting Over How to Build Peace. Volusia County PS Workshop 2012 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College. Situation: Fall 1918. Surprises in Wilson ’ s War Termination Diplomacy. Wilson never called for republic in Germany and effectively gave up on German democratization

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Fighting Over How to Build Peace

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  1. Fighting Over How to Build Peace Volusia County PS Workshop 2012 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College

  2. Situation: Fall 1918

  3. Surprises in Wilson’s War Termination Diplomacy • Wilson never called for republic in Germany and effectively gave up on German democratization • Wilson demanded “regime change” to catch up to American domestic opinion • Wilson lost control of armistice policy • Wilson opposed key military components of armistice

  4. Wilson on Regime Change & Bolshevik Problem • "The spirit of the Bolsheviki is lurking everywhere, and there is no more fertile soil than war-weariness. • "There is grave unrest all over the world. There are symptoms of it in this country -- symptoms that are apparent although not yet dangerous. • "We should consider too the condition of Germany. If we humiliate the German people and drive them too far, we shall destroy all form of government, and Bolshevism will take its place. We ought not to ground them to powder or there will be nothing to build up from. William Wiseman, British envoy, Notes of a Conversation, Oct. 16, 1918, in Fowler, British-American Relations, p. 284.

  5. Wilson: Problem of Regime Change • Navy Secretary Josephus Daniels (diary for October 21): "Why don't you Senators sometimes give me credit with not being a damned fool?" When the Senator persisted, Wilson finally asked him, “Had you rather have the Kaiser or the Bolsheviks?” • Interior Secretary Franklin Lane (diary for Oct 22 1918): President told Cabinet he "was afraid of Bolshevism in Europe, and the Kaiser was needed to keep it down -- to keep some order. He really seemed alarmed that the time would come soon when there would be no possibility of saving Germany from the Germans. This was a new note to me." Sen. Ashurst, D-AZ PWW, 51: p.403, 415

  6. Pershing’s Armistice List& Conflict with Wilson PERSHING to Wilson, Oct 26 1) German withdraw from Fr, Belg 2) German withdraw from AL 3) German withdraw over Rhine and Allies get bridgeheads 4) Unrestricted transport of US troops to Europe 5) repatriation of all POWs 6) surrender of all u-boats and u-boat bases, 7) return of all railway stock. PERSHING to Wilson, Oct 27 Wilson doubts advisability of most of Pershing’s list Wilson approves only #1 and #7

  7. Why is Ending a War so Hard?What Makes Getting to Peace so Difficult? • Paul Kecskemeti, Strategic Surrender (1958) • The Problem Illustrated: Dollar Auction • The Problem Elucidated • Kecskemeti’s Solution

  8. What is Peace? • Negative/Positive Conceptions • St. Augustine’s Classic Conception: • “The peace, then… • of the body lies in the ordered equilibrium of all its parts; • the peace of the irrational soul, in the balanced adjustment of its appetites; • the peace of the reasoning soul, the harmonious correspondence of conduct and conviction; • peace between mortal man and God in “ordered obedience, guided by faith, under God’s eternal law”; • peace between man and man consists in regulated fellowship. • peace of home lies in ordered harmony of authority and obedience between members of family living together; • peace of political community is ordered harmony of authority and obedience between citizens. • peace of Heavenly City lies in perfectly ordered and harmonious communion of those who find their joy in God. • “Peace, in its final sense, is the calm that comes of order.” • Order is an arrangement of like and unlike things whereby each of them is disposed in its proper place. City of God, Book XIX, Chap 13

  9. Levels of Rational War Terminations Truce = Minimal Balance of = Medium Power Liquidate = High Conflict Reorientation = Ideal

  10. “The Hinge”Of Modern US Foreign Policy

  11. Woodrow WilsonPresident 1913-1921 • 1856-1924 • Only President to know personally what defeat in war was like • Only President with PhD in Political Science • Second President to win Nobel Prize • President Princeton University, 1902-1912 • Domestic Policy Accomplishments: • Federal Reserve created • First graduated income tax • Labor legislation • Massive Stroke, 1919

  12. Wilson’s Proposed Revolution in World Politics • Collective Security in League of Nations • National Self-Determination • Democracy

  13. The Case for Wilson • “European System” failed • Liberal Democratic Peace • No 2 Liberal Democracies have ever gone to war against each other • No Liberal Democracy has suffered famine • No Liberal Democracy has committed genocide

  14. A Map

  15. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStorieshttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

  16. Decline in Wars? Human Security Report, 2005

  17. Wars Less Deadly

  18. Theodore Roosevelt • 1858-1919 • War with Spain, 1898 • US President, 1901-1909 • First US President to win Nobel Peace Prize • Breaks with Republican Party, 1912 • Reunion with Republican Party, 1916 • Expected Nominee, President 1920

  19. Clash of Basic Principles • Political Morality = Civilian Morality • US Exceptional • Peace from Liberal Democracy • Peace from International Law Political Morality = Special Morality US Normal Great Power Peace from Balance of Power Peace from Spheres of Influence

  20. Senator Henry Cabot Lodge1850-1924 • Among first Harvard PhD in History • US Senate, 1893-1924 • Becomes Senate Majority Leader & Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair after November 1918 elections • Detested Wilson: “That might fly at Princeton, but certainly not at Harvard!”

  21. Lodge on Peace …My view is a simple one. Nelson once said that the best diplomatists in Europe were his hundred-gun ships. Mr. President, the best diplomatists in Europe at this moment are the armies of France and Italy, of England and the United States. The best men to carry on discussion with Germany are Haig and Pershing and Diaz, and over all the great commander, Marshal Foch. Those are the negotiators with whom I would leave the question of peace. They will win it. They will win it on German soil. They will bring back the peace which the whole American people desire, for they desire, I believe, unconditional surrender, and unconditional surrenders are not obtained by clever discussion and exchange of notes. They are won by armies in the field. Lodge, Senate Debate on War Termination, October 10, 1918

  22. Comparing Peace Lodge “10 Irreducible” August 1918 Wilson “14 Points” February 1918

  23. The Cases Expectations of Peace • “Scientific Peace” • Transform World Politics through Liberal Democratic Peace • Collective Security • Germany: Torn between “reintegrate” and “punish” Expectations of Peace • Peace through Total Victory • World Politics will not change • Alliances • Contain & Restrain Germany

  24. Kecskemeti: Levels of Rational War Terminations Truce = Minimal Balance of = Medium Power Liquidate = High Conflict Reorientation = Ideal

  25. “The Lamb From the Slaughter”

  26. US Political ContextWilson’s 1916 Coalition

  27. US Political Context: Balance of Power in Congress

  28. Geopolitics: 1914

  29. Situation: Fall 1918

  30. Geopolitics: 1920

  31. Dead States / New Statesafter World War I Dead: New:

  32. Military Deaths in World War I Total Killed Total Killed Total Killed % of armed % of % of Country forces men 15-49 population Scotland 26.4 10.9 3.1 France 16.8 13.3 3.4 Britain 11.8 6.3 1.6 Russia 11.5 4.5 1.1 Serbia 37.1 22.7 5.7 Germany 15.4 12.5 3.0 Turkey 26.8 14.8 3.7 USA 2.7 0.4 0.1 Ferguson, Pity of War (1999), p. 299

  33. Versailles Treaty, 1919 • Create League of Nations • Article 10 • Recognize New States: Poland, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Austria, Hungary, Baltic Republics • Create Mandates in Middle East, Africa, Asia • German war guilt (Art 231) • German war reparations • German disarmament • War Crimes Trials (Art 228)

  34. Congress of Vienna, 1815 • Include all GPs • Stability (not Justice) is Job 1 • Balance of Power is route to safety • Stay out of Domestic Politics • Elites run things best

  35. Signing Versailles

  36. Versailles Peace Treaty Debate • First US President going abroad for diplomatic negotiations • First proposed League of Nations • First proposed treaty requiring US to end “isolationism” • First time US Senate invoked cloture • First time US Senate rejected a peace treaty

  37. Wilson’s 3 Great Reformsto World Politics • National Self-Determination • Democracy • Collective Security & International Organization

  38. Problem: Wilson’s Collective Security • League of Nations in first 26 Articles of Treaty • Collective Security & Article 10 • Controversies • Shantung Peninsula • Danzig Corridor • Fiume • Sudetenland

  39. League of NationsCollective Security & Art 10 “The Members of the League undertake to respect and preserve as against external aggression the territorial integrity and existing political independence of all members of the League. In case of any such aggression or in case of any threat or danger of such aggression the Council shall advise upon the means by which this obligation shall be fulfilled."

  40. Versailles Controversy: Shantung Peninsula • Germany acquired extensive rights in 1898 • Treaty gave Germany’s area to JAPAN, not China

  41. Contradiction in Self-Determination: Danzig Corridor • Danzig: 65% German • Corridor outside Danzig: Germans 45%

  42. Sudetenland • 3 M Germans • 1 M Hungarians • 0.5 M Poles • Total Pop: 15 M Red areas indicate > 80% German in 1930 census

  43. Collective Security: Pro/Con • Pro • All states have interest in stopping aggression • Deter aggression • US now has vital interests around world • Con • Great Powers won’t go to war without vital interest • CS makes world politics rigid by freezing territorial status quo • Cannot Define “aggression” • Endangers US constitutional system

  44. Problem: Democracy

  45. Fate of Democracy Democratic Democratic State Founding Regime Collapses Italy 1925 Germany 1919 1933 Czechoslovakia 1918 1938* Poland 1919 1926 Austria 1920 1933 Hungary 1920* 1932 Estonia 1918 1934 Latvia 1920 1934

  46. Locarno Treaty 1925 • Actually 7 Treaties • Germany accepted into European order, admitted to League of Nations • Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy agree form defensive pact • France re-confirmed defense pacts with Poland and Czechoslovakia • Germany pledged to use arbitration for any dispute with Poland and Czechoslovakia

  47. German LeaderGustav Streseman • 1878-1929 • Son of Berlin beer distributor • Won Nobel Peace Prize for Locarno • View of Weimar: Vernunftrepublikaner • Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923 • Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929 • “Fulfillment” Policy (à la Nixon to China) “…gain a free hand to secure peace change of borders in the East and…later incorporation of German territories in the East”

  48. Population(M) 1913 1920 1928 1938 USSR 175 127 150 180 USA 97 106 119 138 Germany 67 43 55.4 68.5 Britain 46 44 46 48 France 39.7 39 41 42

  49. Relative Industrial Potential(UK 1900 = 100) 1928 1938 Britain 135 181 US 533 528 France 82 74 Germany 158 214 USSR 72 152

  50. Defense Expenditures $M, current Year Germany UK France USSR USA • 162 512 498 722 699 • 452 333 524 707 579 • 3,298 1,245 890 3,446 1,621 • 7,415 1,863 919 5,429 1,131

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