Environment Representation and Hurricane Simulation for CWID 2009

1. Environment Representation and Hurricane Simulation for CWID 2009 Naim Alper Droplet Consulting for AER, Inc. John J. Holdzkom, Steven J. Lowe Modeling & Simulation Division AER, Inc. Stephen M. Webb ASNE/MSEA Liaison to JFCOM Dynamics Research Corporation Presented to the Euro SIW 14 July 2009 Istanbul, Turkey

2. Introduction • Modeling and Simulation Executive Agents (MSEA)’s • Air and Space Natural Environment (ASNE): AF Weather Agency • Lead MSEA providing advocacy and USAF Investment • Ocean: Commander Navy MET OC Center (CNMOC) • Increasing interest and commitment due to FST / NCTE • Terrain: NGA • Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO) (formerly DMSO) • Primary source of R&D funds • Primary advocacy, now via M&S Steering Committee • Technology Investment • Above parties have collaborated for over a decade to foster the development of critical enabling technology to reduce obstacles for the use of environment representations in all M&S Communities of Interest. • All technology is US DoD owned and delivered open-source for maximum reuse • Core capabilities developed independent of specific data and model resources

3. Outline • CWID overview • EDCSS overview • Hurricane simulation • Product generation and samples • CWID 09 event support • Summary

4. CWID 2009 • Coalition Warrior Interoperability Demonstration • Yearly event to evaluate technologies and capabilities for exchanging information among coalition partners, military services, government agencies, first responders and U.S. combatant commanders • Two scenarios provide demonstration backdrop • Homeland Security / Homeland Defense (HS/HD) • US NORTHCOM • Coalition Task Force (CTF) • US JFCOM • Coordinated with NATO and UK CWID

5. NATO CWID UK CWID CWID “Big Picture” Technology Assessment- Procedures - Policies - Relationship Building HS/HD USNORTHCOM Coalition USJFCOM INDUSTRY CWID Scenario Vignettes

6. WEATHER SCENARIO – CTF • 15-25 June, notional year 2012 • Theater includes SW Asia, and Horn of Africa • Benign “Typical June” Scenario requested

7. WEATHER SCENARIO – HS/HD - Wildfires - Flooding - Flooding - Wildfires - Hurricane

8. Space Atmos Ocean Terrain Environmental Data Cube Support System (EDCSS) National Repositories • DoD Ops/R&D Centers • NOAA Data Centers • Other Domain CoE Project Definition Scenario Search Simulation Integrated Environment Representation Production White Cell or Analyst Product Generation Distribution COP (C4ISR) Integration

9. Common Open Services for Integrated Natural Environment (COSINE) A SOA implementation providing …. • Resource Registration and Access • Multi-Resource Integration • Value-Added Data Processing • Decoupling of content from format EDCSS Production Site • Develop/maintain customer “product” requirements • Generate/Access Integrated Natural Environment Representation • “Outsource” product generation through well-defined service interfaces EDCSS Production Site AF Atmos Satellite Imagery Data Hypercube Effects COSINE Product Generation Navy Atmos JMB Data Standards Imagery Graphics (KML) Messages Navy Ocean METAR/TAF System Impacts Ad- Hoc Sources • Space Weather • Terrain Data • WRF Model Output

10. Effect IR Hypercube Data JLVC CSV Text AFWA GRIB METAR Image TAF Weather Graphics Synthetic Satellite EDCSS Requirements Data Model Project When Where Who * Components ASWIM JET White Cell JSAF etc AWSIM * Products Spatial Resolution/Projection Available Increments Generation Service

11. EDCSS Products for CWID • National Weather Service (NWS) Global Forecast System (GFS)-style weather forecast data (GRIB): 2X/day with forecasts to 3 days • Simulated IR and VIS Satellite imagery (NITF, GeoTIFF, PNG) • Simulated Radar imagery (NITF, GeoTIFF, PNG) • Forecaster Graphics (KML, PNG) • Forecaster Text Messages (TAF): 4X/day, 30-hr forecasts • Simulated Observations (METAR): hourly for standard ICAO stations • AWSIM weather data (CSV)

12. EDCSS Support to CWID 2009 • Support two scenarios (CTF and HS/HD) • Focus on HS/HD Hurricane scenario • Produce underlying environment representation • Specialized WRF modeling capability developed at AER • Utilize EDC Production Site to generate all products • USAF Joint Environment Toolkit (JET) for C2 integration • USAF AWSIM air campaign simulation • Direct “ad-hoc” integration to other CWID trials via EDC Distributor web services • Utilize EDC Distributor to provide access during event

13. WRF Modeling Capability • WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is a community standard for numerical weather prediction • Utilized by NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, research community • AER maintains a WRF modeling capability for multiple government and commercial projects. • Model deployed on 40-node IBM cluster • AER WRF capability utilized for production of environment representations for EDCSS Test and Evaluation (T&E) system also hosted at AER. • Model initialization based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis • Customized data assimilation to utilize synthetic observations to help “steer” scenario towards customer requirement.

14. Hurricane Simulation for CWID • Identified historical hurricane (Blanche, 1974) that matched desired track and intensity • Initialized WRF with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields • Repeated every 12 hours to keep storm along desired track • Data assimilation via WRF’s 3DVAR technique • Inserted synthetic observations of surface pressure along track to guide storm along desired path • Result • Accurately reproduced path and intensity of Blanche • Standard WRF output provides high-fidelity atmospheric representation from which all EDCSS products can be generated

15. EDCSS WRF-Based Product Generation Product Generation Services Products Base Resource Virtual Resource GRIB AFWA, JSAF, GFS COSINE WRF WRF “Plus” EDC-COSINE CSV JLVC EDC-METAR METAR Text ICAOService EDC-TAF TAF Text ICAOService EDC-NATIVE Sat/Radar PNG, KML, TIF, NITF EDC-OWS OWS Graphics PNG, KML EDC-Hypercube Hypercube EDC-PresentWx PWx Graphics JPG

16. Consistent Integrated Representation EDCSS Sample EDCSS Products FTUS80 KWBC 110300 RKJK TAF 110303 04006KT 9999 SKC QNH3005INS BECMG 1107/1109 35007KT 9999 SKC QNH2988INS BECMG 1113/1115 09010KT 9999 SKC QNH2991INS BECMG 1119/1121 04009KT 9999 SKC QNH2986INS BECMG 1201/1203 03011G25KT 9999 SCT270 QNH2969INS BECMG 1207/1209 33017G37KT 9999 SKC QNH2967INS METAR RCMQ 110300Z 31016KT 10SM BKN140 30/25 Q0970

17. Exercise Support Site

18. EDCSS Deployment in CWID 2009 • EDC Distributor installed on each network (HS/HD and CTF) • Event Support Site hosted (HTML access) • Web Services access to all requested products • Located in US JFCOM Joint System Integration Command (JSIC) • Product suites hosted: • HS/HD: 750 MB • CTF: 3 GB • Results • AFWA JET received hourly products via automated web service requests • ASWIM downloaded and played CSV weather files • Additional CWID trials downloaded directly from EDCSS • EDCSS Products displayed on C2 systems throughout event providing realistic environmental context for CWID demonstrations.

19. Summary • EDCSS provided multiple correlated views of the environment representation to all CWID participants • Simultaneous support of two scenarios • Support to both human and machine consumers • Leveraged WRF model capability to generate desired hurricane scenario in high fidelity • EDC Distributor effectively managed access requirements for all users without issue.